Breaking down the electorate and vote by mail - Bump for Vote by Mail education

I’m doing my best here to stick to the chalk as to who will carry the state.

9 states & DC are sending out automatic ballots (119 EVs)
Vermont - 3
Nevada - 6
District of Columbia - 3
California - 55
New Jersey - 14
Colorado - 9
Hawaii - 4
Utah - 6
Washington - 12
Oregon - 7

Trump was only going to win Utah.
I know he has a shot at NV and maybe CO, but let’s go with the chalk.

Biden - 113
Trump - 6

Five of those states — Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington — already held elections by mail before Wuhan Virus.

California, Nevada, New Jersey, Vermont and the District have all opted to proactively send ballots to voters this year in response to COVID-19. This really won’t impact Trump’s chances.

These 35 states will allow voters to cite the coronavirus as an excuse to vote absentee (336 EVs):
Montana - 3
Alaska - 3
Idaho - 4
Arizona - 11
Wyoming - 3
New York - 29
New Mexico - 5
North Dakota - 3
South Dakota - 3
Nebraska - 5
Kansas - 6
Oklahoma - 7
Minnesota - 10
Iowa - 6
Missouri - 10
Arkansas - 6
Wisconsin - 10
Illinois - 20
Michigan - 16
Ohio - 18
Kentucky - 8
Alabama - 9
Pennsylvania - 20
West Virginia - 5
Virginia - 13
North Carolina - 15
Georgia - 16
Florida - 29
Maine - 4
New Hampshire - 4
Massachusetts - 11
Rhode Island - 4
Connecticut - 7

All of the important swing states are in this group.

Leaving out AZ, OH, MI, WI, MN, NH, PA, assuming Trump splits Maine, and the rest as chalk:
Biden - 100
Trump - 147
Up for grabs - 89

These 6 states require some excuse other than COVID-19 to request an absentee ballot:
Texas - 38
Louisiana - 8
Mississippi - 6
Tennessee - 11
Indiana - 11
South Carolina - 9

Biden - 0
Trump - 83

The tally to this point is:
Biden - 213
Trump - 236

270 pts are needed to win.

Of the tossup states, these are likely Trump leans:
OH - 18
PA - 20

If Trump can pull these 2 states, he wins with 274 EVs. This also negates the importance of the ME split.

My prediction is that Trump eeks out wins in:
OH
PA
AZ
WI

Final tally:
Trump - 295
Biden - 243

Now to the potential for cheating...
The guardrails for the important states is generally:
Application for mailed absentee ballot must be received between 7 and 11 days before election.
The ballots generally must be received at the poll location by 7pm on election day. Republicans MUST ensure that these deadlines are upheld.

Again, some liberal states extend more leeway, but those states are already in the book for Biden.

When election officials receive an application from a voter asking for an absentee/mailed ballot, they verify the identity and information of the voter before sending out the ballot. This is done in a variety of ways, but most commonly by verifying the applicant’s information in the statewide voter registration database. States may also conduct signature verification at this stage to compare the voter’s signature on the application with the voter registration signature. This verification step is meant to ensure that it is in fact the voter who is requesting the absentee/mailed ballot.

Here’s how applications are verified in the swing states:
OH - Information and eligibility checked against voter registration.
PA - Signature checked against voter registration record.
AZ - Signature checked against voter registration record.
MI - Signature checked against voter registration record.
WI - Ballot application information verified with enclosed photo identification information.
MN - Information and eligibility checked against voter registration.

These checks are probably fine if everyone is playing fair, but a corrupt supervisor of elections - who can pull in enough corrupt poll volunteers - can create problems. See Broward County, FL.

Ultimately, I have to believe the polls will be under such scrutiny that democrats won’t be able to pull off enough shenanigans to steal the election. I am also a little comforted because I think Trump has a little wiggle room.

From what I can tell, first time voters and minorities are more likely to have signature verification issues than “more established voters” who are more likely to keep records up to date.

Also, democrats seem to have more of a penchant to miss deadlines.

Republicans need to push supporters to get out and volunteer to work polls...especially in swing states.
I’m going to volunteer for the first time.