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Message
re: Nassim Taleb’s (author of Black Swan and AntiFragile) position on masks
Posted on 7/12/20 at 9:34 am to the808bass
Posted on 7/12/20 at 9:34 am to the808bass
quote:
The CDC gambled in March with their “masks don’t make a difference unless you’re in a hospital.” They’re losing now because of that initial lie. I’m fine with that.
They knew it was a lie and they manipulated the narrative to work the supply chain. So frick em.
Exactly. If they want to toss Tony Fauci and the rest in jail for endangering the public with lies in March then I will believe masks really help.
Posted on 7/12/20 at 9:46 am to Big Scrub TX
“I didn’t mean the words I said”
Old habits die hard
Old habits die hard
Posted on 7/12/20 at 12:51 pm to ThinePreparedAni
How Taleb is wrong:
1st Error:
2nd Error:
3rd Error:
4th Error:
5th Error:
6th Error:
1st Error:
quote:This is speculative.
Let us say (to simplify) that masks reduce both transmission and reception to p. What effect on the R0(that is, the rate of spreading of the infection)?
2nd Error:
quote:This is also speculative.
a reduction of viral load by 75% for a short exposure could reduce the probability of infection by 95% or more!
3rd Error:
quote:The inverse is also true. There is no evidence that *not* locking the door will cause him to be burglarized. In the next sentence he admits that it's all speculation.
The point is that there is no evidence that locking the door tonight will prevent me from being burglarized. But everything that may block transmission could help.
4th Error:
quote:This is classical begging the question. The existence of 3rd party craft masks did not begin with Covid-19. So, is it more likely that bureaucrats knew that these masks were not going to be effective or that they were completely ignorant to their existence?
hence they lied to us saying “masks are not effective”.
5th Error:
quote:We actually don't know this with significant certainty which is a major factor contributing to the mixed governmental messages across the globe.
we know the probability of infection for non mask wearers from tens of thousands of data points and the various R0 estimations
6th Error:
quote:Libertarianism is in-fact rooted in the belief of negative rights. Those which exist, but are not to be defended less they become positive rights by contract. For instance, my right to be free from harm and Mr. Taleb's right to be free from harm are negative rights. Meaning I have no responsibility to protect him from harm; only that I do not actively bring harm upon him. It's safe to say that masks are not 100% effective, so mask or not makes no difference. The scenario is then that Mr. Taleb should not ask me to wear a mask and I should not purposefully cough in his face with the knowledge that I am infected.
“Libertarians” (in brackets) are resisting mask wearing on grounds that it constrains their freedom. Yet the entire concept of liberty lies in the Non-Aggression Principle, the equivalent of the Silver Rule: do not harm others; they in turn should not harm you.
Posted on 7/12/20 at 12:58 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Refusing to wear masks in ANY circumstance is a sign of derangement at this point.
Or freedom. My body, my choice bigot.
Posted on 7/12/20 at 12:59 pm to ThinePreparedAni
I just want to know about herd immunity. No one is talking about it any more. We went into shutdown because we didn't have it, now we seem to be trying to avoid it. What gives? We are frantically searching for a vaccine yet doing everything in our power to isolate people so even the healthy won't become infected. At this rate the virus will never go away.
Oohhhhhhh..........
Oohhhhhhh..........
Posted on 7/12/20 at 1:10 pm to ThinePreparedAni
quote:
First error: missing the compounding effect People who are good at exams (and become bureaucrats, economists, or hacks), my experience has been, are not good at understanding nonlinearities and dynamics
I can say this about every single issue the government tries to "fix"
Talib is a douche but he gets it when it comes to academics, economists and government
Posted on 7/12/20 at 1:15 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Right, that's exactly what I meant. No exceptions for medical conditions that would be worsened
Words do have meaning. You even put emphasis on ANY. Why would anyone think you had exceptions to your “ANY” rule?
quote:
Refusing to wear masks in ANY circumstance
Posted on 7/12/20 at 1:18 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Mask rules also subject Americans to institutionalized fear. Which is hugely corrosive
“It’s quite an experience living in fear. That’s what it is to be a slave.”
-Roy Batty
Posted on 7/12/20 at 1:24 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
You people are an embarrassment. You are not the men your fathers were, and lord, if they should see you now.
You’re just a fricking moron.
During WWII did people revolt against rationing or did they make sacrifices?
Masks are NOTHING compared to what’s our “fathers” sacrifices.
Shame on you.
Posted on 7/12/20 at 1:31 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
You people are an embarrassment. You are not the men your fathers were
Uh, see the 1918 flu pandemic.
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