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re: anybody worried about stock market going down tomorrow
Posted on 2/21/20 at 8:25 pm to UpstairsComputer
Posted on 2/21/20 at 8:25 pm to UpstairsComputer
quote:
don't even need to read the link. The down votes rain down on anyone who suggests things aren't right.
I'm not at all worried about the guys who make money with volatility, I'm worried about the guys who think QE infinity is the answer and buy everything is the response.
It will work until it doesn't. When it doesn't, it's going to be brutal for everyone who thinks buying and holding their index fund is the only logical way to do it. Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but I think everyone should have stop losses on their holdings and if you're lucky enough to get a higher low (like coronavirus gave us a couple weeks back) you should move them up. Downvote away.
Didn’t you say all of this in the thread Husss gained infamy in?
Posted on 2/21/20 at 9:23 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
Something similar, yes. Got downvoted then, so expected it again. I think buy and hold is going to hurt a lot of people so I'll stick up for those brave enough to question it. Full disclosure: I'm 100% long currently.
To address the other two guys... @wdhalgren, you're correct about a lot of what you said. Bernanke also said subprime was contained, there was no risk of spreading to other parts of the economy, and he forecasted no recession just before the bottom fell out, so I no longer believe in the infallibility of the central banks.
@jaydeertay84 (funny, btw), I'm sorry, but your questions don't have much to do with my point. Of course the market has recovered. However, for 2000-2013, your returns were 0%. Including two drops of 50-56%.
The bottom in 2009 would have been a fantastic time to get in. My argument had nothing to do with the market never recovering (not sure about the Goldman article, which now I have to go back and read). I'm suggesting we're closer to 2000 than 2009 in terms of valuation of the market and being unwilling to consider that it could fall - maybe in 6 months, maybe in 2 years, who knows? - but going into that with a firm stance on "I will never reallocate my portfolio to be less than 100% stocks" is a real bad idea. That well ingrained thought process is going to hurt people who may not be as risk tolerant as all of you are.
You likely will come out ok after 5-6 years, by why not have an exit plan an make it 12-18 months?
To address the other two guys... @wdhalgren, you're correct about a lot of what you said. Bernanke also said subprime was contained, there was no risk of spreading to other parts of the economy, and he forecasted no recession just before the bottom fell out, so I no longer believe in the infallibility of the central banks.
@jaydeertay84 (funny, btw), I'm sorry, but your questions don't have much to do with my point. Of course the market has recovered. However, for 2000-2013, your returns were 0%. Including two drops of 50-56%.
The bottom in 2009 would have been a fantastic time to get in. My argument had nothing to do with the market never recovering (not sure about the Goldman article, which now I have to go back and read). I'm suggesting we're closer to 2000 than 2009 in terms of valuation of the market and being unwilling to consider that it could fall - maybe in 6 months, maybe in 2 years, who knows? - but going into that with a firm stance on "I will never reallocate my portfolio to be less than 100% stocks" is a real bad idea. That well ingrained thought process is going to hurt people who may not be as risk tolerant as all of you are.
You likely will come out ok after 5-6 years, by why not have an exit plan an make it 12-18 months?
This post was edited on 2/21/20 at 9:25 pm
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