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Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:10 am
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:10 am
States Trump is most likely to win in 2020 that he didn't in 2016 (most to least likely):
New Hampshire (30% chance)
Minnesota (25%)
Nevada (20%)
New Mexico (15%)
Virginia (10%)
States Trump won in 2016 that he might lose in 2020 (most to least likely):
Michigan (75% chance)
Wisconsin (60%)
Pennsylvania (50%)
Arizona (40%)
Florida (40%)
New Hampshire (30% chance)
Minnesota (25%)
Nevada (20%)
New Mexico (15%)
Virginia (10%)
States Trump won in 2016 that he might lose in 2020 (most to least likely):
Michigan (75% chance)
Wisconsin (60%)
Pennsylvania (50%)
Arizona (40%)
Florida (40%)
This post was edited on 6/12/19 at 9:51 am
9
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:18 am to GeneralLee
New Hampshire - no
Minnesota - no
Nevada - maybe
New Mexico - no
Virginia - maybe, but likely no
I don't think he loses any of these. Economy is greater in all of these states since 2016. You telling me these people are angry that jobs have come back?
Minnesota - no
Nevada - maybe
New Mexico - no
Virginia - maybe, but likely no
quote:
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Florida
I don't think he loses any of these. Economy is greater in all of these states since 2016. You telling me these people are angry that jobs have come back?
This post was edited on 6/12/19 at 9:19 am
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:18 am to GeneralLee
quote:
New Hampshire
Nope. This is a state he lost narrowly in 2016 but where he’s become much more unpopular since being in office.
ETA: +1 favorability when he took office, -20 now.
This post was edited on 6/12/19 at 9:22 am
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:21 am to GeneralLee
I’ll go with Georgia and Arizona biggest concern and biggest surprise trump wins Pennsylvania again with good margins.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:24 am to GeneralLee
nm
This post was edited on 5/21/20 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:27 am to GeneralLee
Virginia is full blue.
based on 2016 results, the 5 closest Hillary states were: (within 5%)
New Hampshire - D +0.4
Minnesota - D +1.5
Nevada - D +2.4
Maine - D +2.9
Colorado - D +4.9
6 closest Trump States (within 5%):
Michigan - R +0.2
Pennsylvania - R +0.7
Wisconsin - R +1.7
Florida - R +1.6
Arizona R +3.6
North Carolina - R +3.6
based on 2016 results, the 5 closest Hillary states were: (within 5%)
New Hampshire - D +0.4
Minnesota - D +1.5
Nevada - D +2.4
Maine - D +2.9
Colorado - D +4.9
6 closest Trump States (within 5%):
Michigan - R +0.2
Pennsylvania - R +0.7
Wisconsin - R +1.7
Florida - R +1.6
Arizona R +3.6
North Carolina - R +3.6
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:31 am to GeneralLee
I guess DC finally took a strong foothold in Virginia it likely will never be a red state ever again.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 10:16 am to GeneralLee
quote:
States Trump won in 2016 that he might lose in 2020 (most to least likely):
Iowa. Obama won in 2012, most hit by Trump policies.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 11:21 am to GeneralLee
-Nevada will turn red. Economy has done great under Trump, and will continue to do well with no state taxes and low property taxes.
-Biden would have been a big Rustbelt problem for Trump in 2016. 2020, with China on the table, it's now the exact opposite. Blue Collar Joe has been exposed as China Joe, the worst kind of traitor in the eyes of the blue collar, job starved Rustbelt. A Biden nomination would be a dream come true for our President!
-Biden would have been a big Rustbelt problem for Trump in 2016. 2020, with China on the table, it's now the exact opposite. Blue Collar Joe has been exposed as China Joe, the worst kind of traitor in the eyes of the blue collar, job starved Rustbelt. A Biden nomination would be a dream come true for our President!
This post was edited on 6/12/19 at 11:28 am
Posted on 6/12/19 at 11:23 am to GeneralLee
Don't celebrate too much on states where Trump has double digit wins... It isn't good sportsmanship.
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