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re: The Stunning Statistical Fraud Behind The Global Warming Scare
Posted on 2/11/19 at 8:12 pm to Duke
Posted on 2/11/19 at 8:12 pm to Duke
You realize that distribution of temperature adjustments gives absolutely no actual data that's helpful. If someone wants to put together a chat of the adjustments correlated to the year the data point is from and how much they changed it and in what direction, that would be helpful. That chart looks great but it just means roughly half the changes were up and half were down. How are those spread out? If the points the lowered were early in the century and the points the raised were in later years, you are doubling your trend
Posted on 2/11/19 at 8:23 pm to narddogg81
quote:
If the points the lowered were early in the century and the points the raised were in later years, you are doubling your trend
Yes, but that isn't what is happening. I quoted bits to show where adjustments are made. I'll grant you without source data, it's not proof of much. So I'll link you to the NOAA report it was contained in and an anecdote from my article to give you some additional background.
quote:
Here, roughly half of all corrections reduce the temperature and half increase it. For example, one station in Darwin, Australia has been adjusted to show more warming to account for a station move and shelter change in the 1940s. Yet the adjustment of another station – this time a station in Tokyo, Japan – has reduced the warming it shows to correct for the urban heat island effect of an expanding city.
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v3/techreports/Technical%20Report%20NCDC%20No12-02-3.2.0-29Aug12.pdf
^just copy and paste it
This post was edited on 2/11/19 at 8:25 pm
Posted on 2/11/19 at 8:28 pm to narddogg81
quote:That’s not true. As I noted above, we can quantify measurement and model errors and the margin around that error. So if the adjustments are within the quantified range and distraction, that is helpful, even if it doesn’t give a complete picture.
You realize that distribution of temperature adjustments gives absolutely no actual data that's helpful. I
quote:Well even if that’s true, that in and of itself doesn’t tell use whether those changes are valid and justifiable or not. What is important is if the error and empirical evidence supports the adjustments. If the evidence suggests early instruments and their measurement had an upward bias, then it’s justifable to adjust them downward.
If the points the lowered were early in the century and the points the raised were in later years, you are doubling your trend
Like I said earlier, I had always been skeptical of those adjustments, but when I read one of the methodology guides, I found their rationale to be valid and evidence-based. That doesn’t mean their own biases didn’t have some impact within the range of possibilities, but the idea that it’s a hoax and the models are fraud, is not evidenced in a broad look at the adjustments themselves.
In order to support the fraud argument, someone would have to actually independently analyze the data and determine that they either didn’t follow their methodology and/or their methodology was not supported by the evidence.
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