re: For 2 sport prospects, negotiating with Manieri to take INITIAL scholarship burden

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In the case above, nothing transpires until the player arrives, and then a determination is made??

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We're dealing with multi-sport athletes here, so pretty much this is the case. The new signing rules created a new category of things to keep track. The old rules, and they are still in place, use counters. Counters are simply athletes on scholarship. You can't be a counter until you are actually on scholarship. Meaning you are present and engaged in school and/or team activities. So the status of a 2 sport athlete can't be formalized until then.

If Hampton were to go pro and not show up and he signed a football NLI, we would lose that signing spot (i.e., we couldn't sign a late transfer to replace his spot). But we wouldn't lose a counter and his spot on the 85 man roster could be given to a multi-year walkon.

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Are you saying that once that dual sport athlete arrives, the scholarship burden always falls on football?

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If one of the sports is football, then yes. If it were basketball and anything else other than football, it would count against basketball and so on.