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re: Breaking: China offers a way to eliminate US trade imbalance. HAIL TRUMP!

Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:39 pm to
Posted by ClampClampington
Nebraska
Member since Jun 2017
3968 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:39 pm to
We have been selling beans to other countries that get rerouted to China at the ports. China doesn’t stop consuming beans because their biggest supplier has a tarriff slapped on them. That’s why I can’t stand all the NYT pieces that paint farmers going broke because of the trade war. If China bought direct from us maybe beans go up 30-40 cents, but the reason bean prices suck is because we grow way too much
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
56715 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:45 pm to
Would this positive news come about without tariffs?
Posted by lsu480
Downtown Scottsdale
Member since Oct 2007
92877 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

by 2024


So then they can reverse it because Trump is out of the office? Ya I am not buying that one at all...
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30679 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:48 pm to
All hail the Donald J Trump!
Posted by ThinePreparedAni
In a sea of cognitive dissonance
Member since Mar 2013
11100 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:49 pm to
So it was foretold on 01/03/19...




Twitter for time stamps / whole thread from 01/03/19

Recent Developments:

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/china-exchanged-data-nasa-side-moon-60356708

quote:

China says it exchanged data with NASA on far side landing
By YANAN WANG, ASSOCIATED PRESS BEIJING — Jan 14, 2019, 6:41 AM ET


quote:

China exchanged data with NASA on its recent mission to land a Chinese spacecraft on the far side of the moon, the Chinese space agency said Monday, in what was reportedly the first such collaboration since an American law banned joint space projects with China that do not have prior congressional approval.

The space agency's deputy director, Wu Yanhua, said NASA shared information about its lunar orbiter satellite in hopes of monitoring the landing of the Chang'e 4 spacecraft, which made China the first country to land on the far side of the moon earlier this month.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124713 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

caused something
"Caused something"?

What exactly was it about basic economics of the situation and 2° effect on trade balance that you don't understand?

Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30679 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

How many jobs do you think it will create? Do you know how many jobs are in the United States???

Let’s say every factory worker position creates $1 million revenue per year. And China is splitting 1 trillion over 6 years. So $167 billion per year. That means 167,000 jobs for creation of the goods. Next, include shipping jobs, customs jobs, sales jobs. Management, HR, IT, technicians, recruiters, etc all to support the newly made jobs. Janitorial services for the additional workers areas. New factories for the additional demands meaning construction jobs and engineering jobs

I’d estimate at least 200,000 additional jobs created by this proposal

Edit: forgot to add, that’s per year to ramp up to the $1 trillion total
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 1:59 pm
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:56 pm to
One link to prove that please.

It is simply not true.

Brazil and Aregentina combined produce more soybeans than the USA. 30% or so more.

Neither are carrying any abnormal inventories over yet the US is carrying a huge inventory.

quote:

The Agriculture Department lowered its production and export outlook, according to a report out Thursday, and increased its inventory estimates. Projected exports were lowered by 160 million bushels to 1.9 billion for the 2018-2019 marketing year, with lower imports projected for China. Ending soybean stocks estimates came in at 955 million bushels, well above analyst estimates of around 898 million bushels.




quote:

SAO PAULO, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Brazil's government on Tuesday raised by 2 million tonnes its projection for soybean exports in the 2017/18 crop to 76 million tonnes amid strong Chinese demand, reducing the crop's end-stocks to the lowest on record.

Agricultural statistics agency Conab raised by 300,000 tonnes its projection for the country's 2017/18 soybean crop from August to 119.3 million tonnes, the second-highest output ever, but even with that increase soy end-stocks fell to 434,000 tonnes from 638,000 tonnes last month.

The report was another indication that Brazil would likely run out of soybeans before the new crop starts to reach warehouses around January, which could force Chinese soy processors to buy from the United States despite the 25 percent additional import tariff imposed by China in its trade spat with the Trump administration.


Where did this fiction you and trinidad spout come from???
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 1:59 pm
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

What exactly was it about basic economics of the situation and 2° effect on trade balance that you don't understand?

It just sounded like you were saying that Trump's tariffs caused the bilateral trade deficit to skyrocket, unless you don't believe that China's slowing growth is due to them
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 1:58 pm
Posted by ngadawg250
Northwest Georgia
Member since Nov 2012
1000 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

Buy up TELL and LNGLY while it's cheap.

Or go with cameronLNG and cheniere for less lucrative but more stake investment...


Shouldn't this come with a disclaimer?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124713 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

It just sounded like you were saying that Trump's tariffs caused the bilateral trade deficit to skyrocket,
China's economy has slowed.

As an economy slows, consumption slows. As consumption slows, imports slow. To a lesser extent, as an economy slows, reduced domestic consumption incents search for export opportunities. Barriers to export opportunities are not helpful in that instance.
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 2:13 pm
Posted by bmy
Nashville
Member since Oct 2007
48203 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

No, it didn't. It came over the Bloomberg terminal this morning for the first time baw. But nice melt!!


"before March 1 expect Trump to declare a “triumph” in a great trade deal that will feature China’s purchase of more than a trillion dollars of additional U.S. products. In addition to purchases of additional U.S. gas, oil, and agricultural produces"

LINK
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
32145 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:12 pm to
quote:

U.S. stocks extended gains and the dollar rose following the news. The S&P 500 Index rallied, climbing 1.3 percent by 1:27 p.m. and heading for its fourth weekly advance, while the dollar traded at session highs.



This can't be.

IBMelting says that Trump's trade strategy with China is bad.
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:14 pm to
Kudos to you for trying.

There are 129 million people working in America today according to statistics.

GDP per capita in the USA is $53,128. LINK

The population of the USA is 325 million. So 325/129 times $53128 should be a reasonable SWAG at the value of an additional job in the USA. That is 2.52*53128=$133,849.61---roughly 13.3% of your estimate of $1 million.

Why should we think these numbers will increase every year? The output is suppose to be about $1 trillion divided by 6 every year. We will not need double the labor in year 2 to do the same labor we do in year 1 will we????
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 2:21 pm
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

China's economy has slowed.

As an economy slows, consumption slows. As consumption slows, imports slow.


All wrong.

The growth in the Chinese economy has slowed. As the growth in consumption slows, the growth in imports slow.
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 2:17 pm
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:18 pm to
I have been telling you since summer the decline in the stock market was trade related. It stands to reason a resolution to the trade war would move the market up.

Maybe if the tariffs disappear we can get back to the September highs by the end of February and the damage this trade war has done to the retirement accounts of American will be recovered.
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 2:19 pm
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:19 pm to
The positive news is that the trade war may end.
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
32145 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:20 pm to
quote:

I have been telling you since summer the decline in the stock market was trade related


The rest of the world thinks it was monetary policy.
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
32145 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

The positive news is that the trade war may end.



Did you think the goal was to have it continue in perpetuity?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124713 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

China's economy has slowed.
quote:

All wrong.

The growth in the Chinese economy has slowed
Whatever you say.
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