CFB Betting -- Championship Week Edition

I didn't see where anyone had started this, so I figured I would fire it up.

Here are my rambling, nonsensical thoughts on some of this weekend's matchups.*

For the sake of efficiency, allow me to preempt some questions right here and now:
1. Yes, I am an idiot.
2. No, I don't have any idea what I'm doing.

Now that we've got that out of the way, here is said mindless gibberish:


Friday night games:

Buffalo-3.5 v. Northern Illinois: I like Buffalo in this one. I think they are the best team in the MAC. And I've had a good deal of success backing them this season, with the one exception being when they got their asses handed to them by Ohio. And that was a bad loss, but looking at a larger sample size than just that game, I think they are the clear class of the MAC, and I like them to prevail both by winning and by covering.

Utah v. Washington-5.5: I was bullish on Utah early in the season and I rode them successfully on an occasion or two. But they just aren't the same team without Huntley and Zack Moss. Huntley isn't really worth a shite in a lot of ways, but was necessary for their offense to click. And Zack Moss is just a massive massive stud, and an NFL running back. Without those two guys they just aren't exaclty lighting up the scoreboard. Washington has finished the season strong. I'd take them and the points but wouldn't lay big lumber on it.


Saturday Games:

Oklahoma-8 v. Texas: I think this is probably too many points, but if you put a gun to my head I would take Oklahoma.

Appy State-17 v. Lafayette: Appy State should definitely win this game. I'm not convinced they are going to cover this spread, but I also am not inclined to toss big money on Lafayette, who really isn't very good. Would love to hear other people's thoughts on this one.

NC State-23 v. ECU: So long as NC State doesn't just completely mail this one in, they should cover this spread. ECU is fricking terrible at football.

Virginia Tech-4 v. Marshall: I've actually already put in a play on this game for Va. Tech. The computer ranking that I generally trust the most (S&P+) is screaming at me not to make that play. It has Marshall ranked 37 and Va. Tech ranked 81. And I get that Va. Tech has been bad this year, but this is still a mid-major we’re talking here. And VT gets them at home. In a game that they need to get bowl-eligible. So, computers be damned, I’m going in on the chokies. I mean, Hokies.


UAB+1.5 v. MTSU: UAB burned me last week on this exact same game, so I’m not likely to be laying any significant wood on this one. I do think UAB is the better squad. Or I did last week. I should probably look into this one a little more and figure out to my satisfaction whether last week’s outcome was more exception or rule.

Memphis+3.5 at UCF: This is a tricky one to handicap because I just don’t know how much Mckenzie Milton is worth to that team. I’m a little torn on this one. I definitely want Memphis to win this game, and i actually do think that they will. But I’m not terribly confident in that conclusion, to put it mildly. I’ll probably end up putting a small play on Memphis on the ML.

Alabama-13.5 v. Georgia: I’m not trying to get cute and outsmart myself on this one. Nobody ever got rich fading a juggernaut, and Alabama remains the best college football team I have ever fricking seen. So, yeah.

Northwester+14 v. tOSU: this just feels like too many points against a grind-it-out team, and especially considering tOSU’s wild inconsistency this year. That being said,I could totally see this being the game that Northwestern gets the beat-down they’ve had coming for weeks now. May just lay off this one.

Fresno State+2.5 at Boise State: nobody ever got rich fading Boise on the smurf turf, but I’m a faint-hearted Fresno lean on this one.

Pittsburgh+27.5 v. Clemson: frick this shitty arse conference. The only reason to bet any ACC game this year was to fade Louisville. Also, this line feels about right. Not touching it.

Stanford-3 at Cal: I don’t have a good read on the majority of the PAC this year. Most of the conference is gooey middle, and both these teams fall under said gooey middle characterization. With a gun to my head I’d take Stanford. But since no gun is currently to my head, I doubt I’ll play this one. Would love to hear better insight from someone who has their brains nicely wrapped around the PAC.


Your friend in degeneracy,
MV


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*As a counterpoint, I should at least note that I'm up on the year. Not like massively let's-go-to-the-strip-club-and-make-it-rain up, but up.