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Started By
Message
Bill Mitchell discusses early voting results
Posted on 10/30/18 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 10/30/18 at 9:30 pm
LINK
Dude is legit and made Harry Enten and Nate Silver look like cucks in 2016 - the early vote talk begins at 13:50 or so
Dude is legit and made Harry Enten and Nate Silver look like cucks in 2016 - the early vote talk begins at 13:50 or so
This post was edited on 10/30/18 at 9:41 pm
7
Posted on 10/30/18 at 9:32 pm to SirWinston
Nate plastic is a fraud.
He was only good during Obama's campaigns because he was fed inside information. Since then he sucks.
He was only good during Obama's campaigns because he was fed inside information. Since then he sucks.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 9:36 pm to SirWinston
There's absolutely no other way to interpret the early voting metrics as anything but extremely positive for Republicans.
The only way Democrats win any of the competitive races is if:
A. The Early Vote stat analysis is just completely f'ed up and wrong.
or
B. Independents are voting overwhelmingly Democrats (which historically never happens, Independents tend to break Republican slightly to majorly)
So yeah, I'm not celebrating until about a week from now, until then I'll be cautiously optimistic.
The only way Democrats win any of the competitive races is if:
A. The Early Vote stat analysis is just completely f'ed up and wrong.
or
B. Independents are voting overwhelmingly Democrats (which historically never happens, Independents tend to break Republican slightly to majorly)
So yeah, I'm not celebrating until about a week from now, until then I'll be cautiously optimistic.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 9:40 pm to CptBengal
Tru Dat. Nate Aluminum is doueche.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 9:46 pm to PEPE
I can't be optimistic.
Midterms are almost always a mess for the party in power and there has never been a 24/7 negative news onslaught from the MSM like the last 2 years.
It is hard to sell their bile when the economy is moving along and almost anyone who wants a job can find one.
I just worry that contented folks are sometimes too apathetic to vote and the liberal rage is stronger today than it was on election night.
I hope I'm wrong but liberals made the same mistake when Obama swept into office. Nonstop glee and people saying the conservative party was dead. Then just 2 years later, liberals get crushed.
Happy folks forget why they are happy and skip voting. Hope it doesn't happen, but I will be shocked if it doesn't.
Midterms are almost always a mess for the party in power and there has never been a 24/7 negative news onslaught from the MSM like the last 2 years.
It is hard to sell their bile when the economy is moving along and almost anyone who wants a job can find one.
I just worry that contented folks are sometimes too apathetic to vote and the liberal rage is stronger today than it was on election night.
I hope I'm wrong but liberals made the same mistake when Obama swept into office. Nonstop glee and people saying the conservative party was dead. Then just 2 years later, liberals get crushed.
Happy folks forget why they are happy and skip voting. Hope it doesn't happen, but I will be shocked if it doesn't.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 9:49 pm to TigerMyth36
Kavanaugh spectacle awakened a sleeping giant.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 9:57 pm to SirWinston
Who is this guy? He seems like a phony.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:45 pm to Jake88
quote:
Who is this guy? He seems like a phony
Everything Bill Mitchell says and uses as his evidence for his claims in this video he did the exact same thing in 2016 and told us that Trump was going to win and exactly why. And he was amazingly accurate and right about it all.
Not only that, but he got the Electoral College numbers almost perfect too, and even told us Trump was going to win the Rust Belt states.
He knew there was a silent Trump voter, and he broke down how the polls were/are so abnormally skewed in their sampling and why they're wrong.
He knows his shite and has been around a long while. He's definitely not a phony.
This post was edited on 10/30/18 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:45 pm to TigerMyth36
Well that's why I'm not doing cartwheels just yet.
The historical tide is against the party holding the White House in the first midterm for sure.
Trump has been playing by a different set of rules though, so hopefully that holds true this time as well.
The historical tide is against the party holding the White House in the first midterm for sure.
Trump has been playing by a different set of rules though, so hopefully that holds true this time as well.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:47 pm to SirWinston
Someone put together the 2016 early voting results so we can compare the two.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:55 pm to The Boat
Compared to 2014 (the last midterm) Democrats are doing better than they did (but they were trounced that election)
Compared to 2016 Republicans are doing better than they did (although that was a Presidential year).
Early voting is growing in popularity each cycle and it's just hard to find a good comparison for this election to recent ones.
Compared to 2016 Republicans are doing better than they did (although that was a Presidential year).
Early voting is growing in popularity each cycle and it's just hard to find a good comparison for this election to recent ones.
This post was edited on 10/30/18 at 10:56 pm
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:58 pm to CptBengal
quote:
Nate plastic is a fraud.
He was only good during Obama's campaigns because he was fed inside information. Since then he sucks.
Lol
Posted on 10/30/18 at 11:04 pm to PEPE
quote:
The historical tide is against the party holding the White House in the first midterm for sure.
quote:
Trump has been playing by a different set of rules though, so hopefully that holds true this time as well.
Yes things are definitely different now, using history told us Trump could not be president, but everything reset on election night 2016, and we are in totally uncharted waters.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 11:05 pm to KingOrange
quote:
Tru Dat. Nate Aluminum is doueche
The guy is a major douche but he was not wrong in 2016.
His numbers said Trump had 1 chance in 3. That's an underdog but odds much longer than 1 in 3 hit every day in every facet of life.
In every simulation he ran Trump won 33 of every 100 elections. By his numbers Trump had a decent shot to win which of course he did.
Silver is unfairly lumped in with the morons saying Hillary was 98% to win. Silver never made any such claim.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 11:12 pm to TigerMyth36
quote:
I hope I'm wrong
In voting for the last 46 years and never remembering a more enthused midterm election, I do think you are wrong.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 11:14 pm to Tiger985
quote:Didn't he call the election for HRC around 4:30 PST / 7:30 EST - assuming Florida was a done deal?
Silver never made any such claim.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 11:14 pm to TigerMyth36
quote:There also hasnt been a coup like what was attempted by the Democrats either. this negative onslaught cuts both ways. Reps are more energized than ever and anyone who voted for Trump, will be voting for Trump in the mid terms.
there has never been a 24/7 negative news onslaught from the MSM like the last 2 years.
eta: and those that were on the fence are now firmly entrenched in Trumps camp. And those blacks that now woke, will either be voting Red or staying home.
Trump holds house and gains in Senate. America profits
This post was edited on 10/30/18 at 11:16 pm
Posted on 10/30/18 at 11:18 pm to TigerMyth36
quote:
I can't be optimistic.
Midterms are almost always a mess for the party in power and there has never been a 24/7 negative news onslaught from the MSM like the last 2 years.
I am cautiously optimistic.
The midterm trend being a mess for the party in power may generally be true, but the last Presidential election threw everything off. None of the "normal" measurements worked. I think it will be the same for these mid-terms. Trump has done very well. The Democrats have melted beyond expectations and have had terrible optics. The Republicans are still fired up for their side; the Democrats for theirs. I think the independents are going to come out more on the Republican side.
It's going to be a fun night, I believe. I hope DU crashes again, both figuratively and literally.
This post was edited on 10/30/18 at 11:20 pm
Posted on 10/30/18 at 11:18 pm to Tiger985
quote:
His numbers said Trump had 1 chance in 3
Well he could have said Trump had a 1 in 100 chance and been right too according to that analogy. He went with the odds of Clinton winning for whatever reasons and his reasons were exposed as being dismally wrong.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 11:21 pm to Homesick Tiger
quote:
Well he could have said Trump had a 1 in 100 chance and been right too according to that analogy. He went with the odds of Clinton winning for whatever reasons and his reasons were exposed as being dismally wrong
He didn’t do anything. His formula said trump had basically a one out of 3 chance.
His reasons weren’t exposed. Lol
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