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Started By
Message
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted on 1/6/19 at 8:03 pm to Decisions
Posted on 1/6/19 at 8:03 pm to Decisions
quote:
This time it’s different.
Signed- Everyone when history starts to repeat itself. Again.
It really shouldn’t come as a shock. Just look at all of the poor sobs left holding the bag after the crypto roller coaster finished its ride. Just look at the ‘08 housing crash. Just look at the 80’s farm crisis.
Can you explain how the current financial climate is alike to any of those that you listed.
1
Posted on 1/6/19 at 8:19 pm to Hussss
Got it. A lot of technical damage was done, more than I thought would happen. I think we eventually push through. I think something spooked the market that was beyond interest rates and China or any of the reasons mentioned in this thread.
Sure, interest rates and China may have caused the initial decline but the violent move down suggested to me something else is up. After the market sliced through key support levels, it seemed like big players were getting ahead of some news. My thought at the time was that word of the Mueller investigation findings was starting to get out. If that is the case, the news isn’t good given the market reaction.
Sure, interest rates and China may have caused the initial decline but the violent move down suggested to me something else is up. After the market sliced through key support levels, it seemed like big players were getting ahead of some news. My thought at the time was that word of the Mueller investigation findings was starting to get out. If that is the case, the news isn’t good given the market reaction.
Posted on 1/6/19 at 8:37 pm to Hussss
quote:So you’re predicting the market will go up if it goes up? But if the market doesn’t go up you’re predicting it won’t go up?
1) If it makes it back up through the 200 day ma on the daily chart (2742 at the moment but will be lower by the time if / when we test it as it is sloping downward) yes
2) Do I think it will get through there? Absolutely not.
Well, that’s helpful. Thanks.
Posted on 1/6/19 at 8:45 pm to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
Can you explain how the current financial climate is alike to any of those that you listed.
10x+ revenues ratios are unrealistic and unsustainable (as the man in Doc’s article pointed out). Speculation (due to a variety of factors) has driven their value far past what it’s reasonable to expect them to deliver. That’s what’s alike.
You can’t expect these companies to perform to these valuation levels. You couldn’t expect farmland to pay for itself at the the prices it was drawing in the late 70’s (or today). The same could be said about houses in the 2000’s and crypto last year. They all have value, yes, but it’s not in line with the prices being demanded. It’s a bubble. Simple as that.
This post was edited on 1/6/19 at 8:49 pm
Posted on 1/6/19 at 9:31 pm to LSURussian
Hey, what can I say... I let the market dictate how I trade so I trade what I see and not what I hope for or want to happen.
Of course I have my biases but if I am wrong, I am more than willing to admit that I am wrong and cut my losses short. Just the way I have learned to do things throughout the years that have actually worked quite well.
Everyone’s style and strategies are different and I respect that. I know you and I have had our back and forths but I am always willing to listen to others’ perspectives because I know there is always room to learn things. I like to think of the markets as taking years to learn and a lifetime to master.
Of course I have my biases but if I am wrong, I am more than willing to admit that I am wrong and cut my losses short. Just the way I have learned to do things throughout the years that have actually worked quite well.
Everyone’s style and strategies are different and I respect that. I know you and I have had our back and forths but I am always willing to listen to others’ perspectives because I know there is always room to learn things. I like to think of the markets as taking years to learn and a lifetime to master.
Posted on 1/7/19 at 5:29 am to CajunTiger92
quote:
I think something spooked the market that was beyond interest rates and China or any of the reasons mentioned in this thread.
There have been a whole lot of really huge issues mentioned in this thread.
quote:
My thought at the time was that word of the Mueller investigation findings was starting to get out.
Oh, I do think this is coming. Just see my sig quote.
It will likely make the severity of the bear market worse. But it likely won't be the cause, and I don't think it's what has been moving markets so far.
Posted on 1/7/19 at 5:36 am to wutangfinancial
Well it appears that I may have been off on the timing. I thought we'd see news of concessions/breakthroughs coming from the Trump Administration in its dealings with Congress and with China going into this week. That's okay though. The federal government shutdown is mostly a sideshow distraction, and the March 1 deadline for U.S.-China trade negotiations dictates that some kind of progress be made relatively soon. I can wait another week for sure.
Posted on 1/7/19 at 7:20 am to Doc Fenton
Overnight futures tried to get through SPX 2550 and failed.
Posted on 1/7/19 at 8:27 am to Hussss
quote:At around 9 PM last night the S&P futures hit 2,550.74.
Overnight futures tried to get through SPX 2550 and failed.
Posted on 1/7/19 at 8:30 am to LSURussian
Posted on 1/7/19 at 10:08 am to LSURussian
This post was edited on 1/7/19 at 10:40 am
Posted on 1/7/19 at 10:43 am to Hussss
The S&P500 Index is at 2,553.29 as I write this. Its high today (so far) is 2,553.76.
EDIT: Now it is at 2,558.80
What now?
EDIT: Now it is at 2,558.80
What now?
This post was edited on 1/7/19 at 10:56 am
Posted on 1/7/19 at 11:16 am to LSURussian
Next test is 2593 to the 200 ma on the 60 min. timeframe.
Scaling into some volatility here and selling some stock positions
quote:
What now?
Scaling into some volatility here and selling some stock positions
This post was edited on 1/7/19 at 11:23 am
Posted on 1/7/19 at 11:32 am to Hussss
So the 2,550 that you were touting to be an important level ("we get through those, we are heading for a double top minimum with new highs possible.") was not really important after all??
Seems a bit like "look over there at that shiny new thing" type of mentality....
quote:Isn't it fair to say there are ALWAYS new "tests"? If the market reaches a "test" then just start preaching about the next "test."
Next test is 2593
Seems a bit like "look over there at that shiny new thing" type of mentality....
Posted on 1/7/19 at 11:34 am to LSURussian
I said 2550 was the FIRST level
I told you exactly what I am doing right here, right now. I told you where the short term bottom was and exactly what I was doing there as well.
What else?
I told you exactly what I am doing right here, right now. I told you where the short term bottom was and exactly what I was doing there as well.
What else?
This post was edited on 1/7/19 at 11:36 am
Posted on 1/7/19 at 11:37 am to Hussss
quote:Then what's the point? Just say the level you think is significant and forget about touting levels below that.
I said 2550 was the FIRST level
If 2593 is the real milestone to watch, then 2550 is meaningless since the index has to go through 2550 in order to reach 2593.
Posted on 1/7/19 at 11:43 am to LSURussian
No, 2593 is not nearly as important as 2650, 2700 and the 200 ma on the daily (2742)
Once again, I am selling some long positions today and scaling into volatility. Close to 2593 I will do the same and if we get up to 2650 - 2700 I will then be all in to the downside.
There is an open gap down at SPX 2460 so if we start falling hard in the next week or so this is where we are headed.
Does this clarify things?
Once again, I am selling some long positions today and scaling into volatility. Close to 2593 I will do the same and if we get up to 2650 - 2700 I will then be all in to the downside.
There is an open gap down at SPX 2460 so if we start falling hard in the next week or so this is where we are headed.
Does this clarify things?
This post was edited on 1/7/19 at 11:52 am
Posted on 1/7/19 at 12:09 pm to Hussss
I’m going to assume you believe we retest 2350 eventually in the near term?
Posted on 1/7/19 at 12:12 pm to leoj
No I actually don't.
I think we go down to 2460, fill the gap and head back up.
This Spring we will go down through it to the 1800's.
I think we go down to 2460, fill the gap and head back up.
This Spring we will go down through it to the 1800's.
This post was edited on 1/7/19 at 12:15 pm
Posted on 1/7/19 at 12:32 pm to Hussss
quote:
No, 2593 is not nearly as important as 2650, 2700 and the 200 ma on the daily (2742)
Does this clarify things?
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