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CFB Gambling Thread: Week 1

Posted on 8/12/18 at 9:35 am
Posted by Tunica
Member since May 2018
1789 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 9:35 am
I've concocted a slate of about 10 games to keep an eye on. In an ideal world, I plan on tallying up 30-40k to spend on a gently used 2016 F-150 at seasons end. Proceed with the hot takes.

Washington +3: Chris Peterson is the second best coach in America. Taking the location of the game (Atlanta) as well as conference bias out of the equation, it's easy to see who the better team is here. Led by a 4th year starter at quarterback, the Huskies are loaded. UW wins outright

Miami -2.5: Mark Richt vs. Ed Orgeron? I'll take Richt laying that number 100/100 times

UCLA -16.5: Chip Kelly will be looking to run it up in his debut as the Bruins welcome a bad Cincy team to Westwood

Purdue -3: Purdue gets their opener at home against Northwestern. Jeff Brohm will be skimming over more enticing job offers at seasons end.

Villanova +15.5: Taking on Temple in the battle of Philadelphia, this game means more to Nova. They lost to the Owls 16-13 last year. 15.5 is just too many points.

Cal -8.5: North Carolina flying across the country with 13 guys sitting at home due to the shoe selling scandal. This is the same Cal team that rolled into Chapel Hill and won straight up as a 12 point dog in 2017.

Rice +24: This is the Owls’ second game of the season after starting Week 0 (Aug. 25) against Prairie View A&M. Houston may be caught looking ahead to Week 2 when they will play an Arizona team led by former Cougars head coach Kevin Sumlin and Heisman candidate Khalil Tate.

Ole Miss +2: Biding time to see if this will get to 2.5 and will buy the hook to get the key number at 3. Ole Miss defense will be one of the worst units in the nation - Kingsbury D's normally are as well. OM has the best wideouts in the country along with a serviceable QB and a solid offensive line. Tech is breaking in a new kid under center. I'll take the points here in what should be a shootout.

USC -25.5: UNLV is terrible. This game screams 55-21 or something similar.

Texas -11: Maryland is in disarray with the DJ Durkin scandal coming out 2 weeks before kick. Texas is looking to gain momentum in Herman's second year at the helm and I'm sure Maryland coming to Austin and stealing one in 2017 will be a focal point.



Fwiw, a 10 game parlay winner pays 825/1
This post was edited on 8/24/18 at 8:20 am
Posted by 4LSU2
Member since Dec 2009
37346 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 9:38 am to
quote:

Ole Miss +2: Biding time to see if this will get to 2.5 and will buy the hook to get the key number at 3. Ole Miss defense will be one of the worst units in the country - Kingsbury D's normally are as well. OM has the best wideouts in the country along with a serviceable QB and a solid offensive line. Tech is breaking in a new kid under center. I'll take the points here in what should be a shootout.


Why not just take the over here? 2 or 2.5 is basically a pick em. I agree with the shootout here,but haven’t seen a total yet.
Posted by Tunica
Member since May 2018
1789 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 9:40 am to
The total is at 67. Seems low to me. I've never been an over/under player

ETA: with that said, I think Mississippi State OVER 8 wins is the best bet in all of college football
This post was edited on 8/12/18 at 9:44 am
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
74256 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 9:47 am to
Im on LSU +3

I like Tx but i feel karma is coming for Herman
Posted by Dawgsontop34
Member since Jun 2014
42660 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 9:55 am to
quote:


I like Tx but i feel karma is coming for Herman


For what?
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
74256 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 9:57 am to
quote:

For what?


For Kissing young men and ratting people out
Posted by Tunica
Member since May 2018
1789 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 9:58 am to
Karma isn't real
Posted by TomRollTideRitter
Member since Aug 2016
12619 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 9:59 am to
quote:

Purdue -3: Purdue gets their opener at home against Northwestern. Jeff Brohm will be skimming over more enticing job offers at seasons end.



Purdue lost almost all of their defense which was their better unit last season. I'd stay away from this game.
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32022 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 10:02 am to
Hows it been goin? almost didnt recognize you with the new alter. Cant wait for these threads
Posted by SpartyGator
Detroit Lions fan
Member since Oct 2011
75630 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 10:03 am to
Utah St. @ Sparty (-23) somehow makes me uneasy. I know USU isn't very good, but sometimes MSU goes slow in the early games (or the 2nd half gets kind of dicey).
Posted by Carson123987
Middle Court at the Rec
Member since Jul 2011
66467 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 10:08 am to
Welcome back, GNugget
Posted by Joe Mantegna
knoxville
Member since Oct 2007
9307 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 10:09 am to
quote:

Jeff Brohm will be skimming over more enticing job offers at seasons end.


Thanks for the great analysis on why I should bet on this game.
Posted by Tunica
Member since May 2018
1789 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 10:10 am to
quote:

Purdue lost almost all of their defense which was their better unit last season. I'd stay away from this game.
I'm aware. This is more so a play on the momentum that Purdue has coming into this year. Brohm won 7 games last year, a feat that hasn't been achieved at Purdue in that last decade. They're bringing back their entire offense aside from the #1 target who's now in the league. 6 returnees on the line. Factor in that this is a home game.

The line has jumped to -3.5. Apparently a few other people like the Boilermakers as well
Posted by Tunica
Member since May 2018
1789 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 10:11 am to
quote:

Hows it been goin? almost didnt recognize you with the new alter. Cant wait for these threads
I don't get it?
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
45066 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 10:12 am to
Oklahoma -21 over Florida Atlantic seems like a gift
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32022 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 10:13 am to
quote:

The line has jumped to -3.5


in the 40mins since you posted the op? Wow had no clue so much money was moving on a random sunday morning 3 weeks before a purdue football game.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
74256 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 10:13 am to
quote:

Welcome back, GNugget


Posted by Tunica
Member since May 2018
1789 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 10:15 am to
Crazy, right? It opened at 3. According to 5Dimes it's now at 3.5
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32022 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 10:16 am to
quote:

Hows it been goin? almost didnt recognize you with the new alter. Cant wait for these threads
I don't get it?



see carsons post after mine
Posted by Tunica
Member since May 2018
1789 posts
Posted on 8/12/18 at 11:30 am to
Still don't get it
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