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re: FanGraphs Releases Annual "Industry Consensus" MLB Trade Value Rankings: 1-50
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:33 pm to volfan30
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:33 pm to volfan30
quote:
Albies and Chapman both with 5.5+ WAR in their first ~full season (Chapman a couple games more and Albies a handful of games less) and both are controlled through 2023.
Track record counts, and while these guys weren’t rookies last year, you might have found Tommy Pham, Zack Cozart, Chris Taylor or Marcell osuna on this list. Baseball can be so year to year. Albies & Chapman are valuable but a great defensive 3B who is a meh hitter isn’t the 17th most valuable commodity
I keep hearing money being a detriment but unless you’re talking Stanton like contract, a great player with a proven track record still in their prime is going to command a large hall, $20mil a year or not.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:34 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Altuve 36 behind someone like Albies and Suarez is laughable to name a few.
Albies 5.8 WAR/162 (age 20-21)
Altuve 6.2 WAR/162 since his breakout in 2014 (age 24-28)
Altuve $146M for 28-34 seasons or Albies ~$45M for 21-26 seasons?
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:39 pm to The Seaward
quote:
and I bet if they switched parks, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.
Chapman was terrible on the road last year, he has been better this year, about as good as Nolan is on the road. They are close in age & arenado has the track record. No way in hell Chapman would command more
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:41 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Chapman was terrible on the road last year, he has been better this year, about as good as Nolan is on the road. They are close in age & arenado has the track record. No way in hell Chapman would command more
Arenado is better than Chapman, but Chapman has three more years of control. That is huge. The guy that put this list together is smart and has contacts. He's not some clown.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:41 pm to The Seaward
Trout gonna be a Phillie in 2020.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:43 pm to volfan30
Again, sample size. Albies has been aided by a huge hot streak power surge this year & is playing above his minor league numbers, that tells me proceed with caution in an exercise like this
Altuve, the last 2 years has finished 1st & 3rd in the mvp
Altuve, the last 2 years has finished 1st & 3rd in the mvp
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:45 pm to The Seaward
Chapman actually has 4 more years of control than Arenado.
The bottom line is that rentals (which is what Arenado will be this winter) are losing value in today's game. A. Chapman netted Torres in a very special circumstance, but outside of that who is the last guy with a year or less left before he hit the market who was traded for a big haul? Maybe I'm forgetting someone but all the big hauls I can remember recently have been for guys like Myers, S. Miller, Eaton, Quintana, Sale, etc. who are controlled long term.
The bottom line is that rentals (which is what Arenado will be this winter) are losing value in today's game. A. Chapman netted Torres in a very special circumstance, but outside of that who is the last guy with a year or less left before he hit the market who was traded for a big haul? Maybe I'm forgetting someone but all the big hauls I can remember recently have been for guys like Myers, S. Miller, Eaton, Quintana, Sale, etc. who are controlled long term.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:48 pm to volfan30
quote:'
Chapman actually has 4 more years of control than Arenado.
You're right. This really isn't even close.
This post was edited on 7/20/18 at 10:49 pm
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:50 pm to Lester Earl
Anyone would agree that Altuve is the better player today but he has to provide $100M+ in excess value over the course of his contract to be more valuable than Albies on paper. Do you think age 28-34 Altuve will be worth 12 wins more than 21-26 Albies? If so, then yes he should be ranked ahead of him. I would not bet on that though.
My point is that I think if you polled all 30 GMs I believe the majority would pick $45M for Albies 21-26. Maybe a few teams like the Dodgers or Red Sox who can afford to take the sure thing without money being an object would take Altuve but the majority of teams are going to take Albies and spend that $100M elsewhere.
My point is that I think if you polled all 30 GMs I believe the majority would pick $45M for Albies 21-26. Maybe a few teams like the Dodgers or Red Sox who can afford to take the sure thing without money being an object would take Altuve but the majority of teams are going to take Albies and spend that $100M elsewhere.
This post was edited on 7/20/18 at 10:54 pm
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:52 pm to The Seaward
I am familiar with the author,baw
Looking at last years list
MIGUEL Sano 25
Michael Fulmer 22
Michael conforto 20
Chris archer 16
Carlos Martinez 13
This is what happens when you put more stock in upside than track record
Looking at last years list
MIGUEL Sano 25
Michael Fulmer 22
Michael conforto 20
Chris archer 16
Carlos Martinez 13
This is what happens when you put more stock in upside than track record
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:59 pm to volfan30
Yu & machado both netted top 50 prospects the last 2 years.
If Arenado was a trade deadline deal this year he would get a huge haul from a competing team just cause of that extra year of control. A team like the Phillies or dodgers pre-machado are opening up their chest
If Arenado was a trade deadline deal this year he would get a huge haul from a competing team just cause of that extra year of control. A team like the Phillies or dodgers pre-machado are opening up their chest
Posted on 7/20/18 at 10:59 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
I am familiar with the author,baw
Looking at last years list
MIGUEL Sano 25
Michael Fulmer 22
Michael conforto 20
Chris archer 16
Carlos Martinez 13
This is what happens when you put more stock in upside than track record
It's a different author than last year, and of course there will be laughable rankings with retrospect, but that doesn't mean it wasn't an accurate snapshot of the market at the time.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 11:02 pm to Lester Earl
Carlos Martinez would fetch a king's ransom if St. Louis made him available. Same with Fulmer and Detroit. I think Tampa Bay missed their chance to bring back a huge return for Archer.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 11:08 pm to The Seaward
quote:
and of course there will be laughable rankings with retrospect
Dude it was just a year ago. It shouldn’t be laughable just yet. Which is funny to me to act like Chapman or Albies are a sure thing over young recent MVP winners
quote:
but that doesn't mean it wasn't an accurate snapshot of the market at the time.
Young players with good WAR yet no sample size halfway thru a season is not an accurate snapshot of anything. I don’t care who they claim to have talked too. Last years list would have gotten GMs fired. I didn’t even sift thru 30-50
Posted on 7/20/18 at 11:12 pm to VADawg
quote:
Carlos Martinez would fetch a king's ransom if St. Louis made him available. Same with Fulmer and Detroit.
Kings ransom no, but Both would get a nice haul. Point is they were too 25 last year and they aren’t near that this year
Posted on 7/20/18 at 11:12 pm to Lester Earl
You're right. The guy that wrote this after holding high level positions in baseball and sharing the list with GMs, scouting directors, etc, is clueless and doesn't know the current market value for players.
And I'm not saying you have to agree with everything here, but to act like the list is foolish is just silly.
And I'm not saying you have to agree with everything here, but to act like the list is foolish is just silly.
This post was edited on 7/20/18 at 11:13 pm
Posted on 7/20/18 at 11:16 pm to volfan30
(no message)
This post was edited on 7/20/18 at 11:17 pm
Posted on 7/20/18 at 11:23 pm to Lester Earl
Phillies GM Klentack interested in Machado in FA, but not as steep rental for a greenhorn team.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 11:24 pm to TheRoarRestoredInBR
The Dodgers are not going to let him go without throwing their hat into the ring so good luck
Posted on 7/20/18 at 11:26 pm to The Seaward
IN the end it’s entertainment & for clicks, and I don’t think he shies away from a few reaches for that reason. You can say GMs have input. To what degree & investment, who knows. I respect FG a lot. This is a fun exercise, but some of the picks are silly & it’s pretty easy to put the names together that may not be on it next year.
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