re: Trump Tax Windfall Going to Capex Way Faster Than Stock Buyback, largest capex in 7 years

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From April 26th.

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oh, yeah. and that. but the sample clearly wasn't supposed to be representative of much to begin with

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Why do you necessarily assume that the substance of the assertion is unworthy or any cheer leading though?

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It's premature, at very best. That is a fact, not an assumption.

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so let's see here. companies have INCREASED their CAPEX spending by 39% relative to last year for the Fortune 500.

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*a nonrepresentative subsample

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I agree that in actual dollars, if they are spending more on stock buyback, etc., then this doesnt look good. However, when looking a trend, these numbers are encouraging.

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well jeez bengal, it's not like i'm arguing that tax cuts don't have benefits here. but if they don't accrue far and away towards big increases in investment, all that's left is a brief keynesian consumption stimulus (deficit-financed, and at a high point in the business cycle!)

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How you could look at encouraging data and be upset at it is fricking absurd. Your TDS is real.

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who's upset? i guess i do worry that if real supply-side driven growth doesn't materialize from this- and it probably can't without an investment boom- then the credibility of what they caricature as "trickle-down" will suffer. but it's done, and all that remains is to see how the outcome develops. maybe you should ask why the people hurling insults at me all the time are so upset at my perspective, which is always well-grounded and defended

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The role of martyr is not very attractive.

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I'm not a martyr, I like posting here. I'm certainly not upset either, especially compared to the little flock of angry groupies I've picked up lately. That's all I'm saying.

I do appreciate you otherwise offering the kind word

yep, and as a reminder they were on the slightly high side of the mainstream TCJA impact estimates

even still, increases of the size that GS expects yielded a 0.07% avg bump to GDP growth

as in a change from a hypothetical 2.5% up to 2.57%

Nerd

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this article only talks about percentage change in capex & buybacks/dividends, and not talk about the actual change in each?

i mean it doesn't even mention the starting point for each. don't we already know that investment has been low & profits high?

we need to see a spike in private domestic investment and/or wages. not only that, it needs to be sustained

this is not very helpful for informing the debate. it's only helpful for narrative purposes

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What a fricking surprise

how do you figure

remember the numbers in the op are not representative economy-wide or even S&P500-wide

Crumbs

fricking crumbs

Do you have a better data point to reflect on predictions?