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Started By
Message
re: Trump Tax Windfall Going to Capex Way Faster Than Stock Buyback, largest capex in 7 years
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:02 pm to CptBengal
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:02 pm to CptBengal
quote:
the graph and data are clearly y/y. It says so. The baseline is an autoregressive one.
bruh
what matters for the supply-side impact is where the bulk of the money, in level terms, being returned to the businesses is going
these %-change figures in fact obscure that simple breakdown
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:03 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
From April 26th.
oh, yeah. and that. but the sample clearly wasn't supposed to be representative of much to begin with
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:06 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
I do bristle at undue cheerleading, it's true.
Why do you necessarily assume that the substance of the assertion is unworthy or any cheer leading though?
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:07 pm to Mo Jeaux
quote:
Why do you necessarily assume that the substance of the assertion is unworthy or any cheer leading though?
It's premature, at very best. That is a fact, not an assumption.
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:08 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
bruh
what matters for the supply-side impact is where the bulk of the money, in level terms, being returned to the businesses is going
so let's see here. companies have INCREASED their CAPEX spending by 39% relative to last year for the Fortune 500.
I agree that in actual dollars, if they are spending more on stock buyback, etc., then this doesnt look good. However, when looking a trend, these numbers are encouraging.
How you could look at encouraging data and be upset at it is fricking absurd. Your TDS is real.
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:15 pm to CptBengal
quote:
so let's see here. companies have INCREASED their CAPEX spending by 39% relative to last year for the Fortune 500.
*a nonrepresentative subsample
quote:
I agree that in actual dollars, if they are spending more on stock buyback, etc., then this doesnt look good. However, when looking a trend, these numbers are encouraging.
well jeez bengal, it's not like i'm arguing that tax cuts don't have benefits here. but if they don't accrue far and away towards big increases in investment, all that's left is a brief keynesian consumption stimulus (deficit-financed, and at a high point in the business cycle!)
quote:
How you could look at encouraging data and be upset at it is fricking absurd. Your TDS is real.
who's upset? i guess i do worry that if real supply-side driven growth doesn't materialize from this- and it probably can't without an investment boom- then the credibility of what they caricature as "trickle-down" will suffer. but it's done, and all that remains is to see how the outcome develops. maybe you should ask why the people hurling insults at me all the time are so upset at my perspective, which is always well-grounded and defended
This post was edited on 5/2/18 at 5:17 pm
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:21 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
the people hurling insults at me
The role of martyr is not very attractive.
For what it's worth (which is little to nothing), I think you generally provide thoughtful insight, but you do come off as having somewhat of an aggressive agenda.
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:25 pm to Mo Jeaux
quote:
The role of martyr is not very attractive.
I'm not a martyr, I like posting here. I'm certainly not upset either, especially compared to the little flock of angry groupies I've picked up lately. That's all I'm saying.
I do appreciate you otherwise offering the kind word
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:40 pm to 90proofprofessional
GS prediction so CAPEX increase would be significant; reversing a negative trend in 15 and 16.
No way to spin this as anything but positive.
No way to spin this as anything but positive.
This post was edited on 5/2/18 at 5:43 pm
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:46 pm to C
yep, and as a reminder they were on the slightly high side of the mainstream TCJA impact estimates
even still, increases of the size that GS expects yielded a 0.07% avg bump to GDP growth
as in a change from a hypothetical 2.5% up to 2.57%
even still, increases of the size that GS expects yielded a 0.07% avg bump to GDP growth
as in a change from a hypothetical 2.5% up to 2.57%
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:53 pm to 90proofprofessional
So GS underscored capital ex increases by over $150 billion in 2018.
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:54 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
this article only talks about percentage change in capex & buybacks/dividends, and not talk about the actual change in each?
i mean it doesn't even mention the starting point for each. don't we already know that investment has been low & profits high?
we need to see a spike in private domestic investment and/or wages. not only that, it needs to be sustained
this is not very helpful for informing the debate. it's only helpful for narrative purposes
What a fricking surprise
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:56 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
HailHailtoMichigan!
still shilling for these bullshite tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations.
the earnings arent helping the middle class.
2 trillion dollars has been added to the debt
and the GDP projections from the idiots in the Trump administration to pay for it still havent materialized and never will.
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:56 pm to C
how do you figure
remember the numbers in the op are not representative economy-wide or even S&P500-wide
remember the numbers in the op are not representative economy-wide or even S&P500-wide
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:57 pm to Cruiserhog
quote:
the earnings arent helping the middle class.
wrong
quote:
2 trillion dollars has been added to the debt
wrong
i hate u all
This post was edited on 5/2/18 at 5:58 pm
Posted on 5/2/18 at 6:02 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Crumbs
fricking crumbs
fricking crumbs
Posted on 5/2/18 at 6:23 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
You’ll need to define CapEx for the majority of voters.
Posted on 5/2/18 at 6:51 pm to 90proofprofessional
Do you have a better data point to reflect on predictions?
Posted on 5/2/18 at 6:58 pm to C
probably will be looking at this first:
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