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Message
re: Anyone listen to Don Debuc this morning? (River flood info)
Posted on 4/22/18 at 9:34 am to Da Hammer
Posted on 4/22/18 at 9:34 am to Da Hammer
There must be some long term projections they have, the river forecast only take into account known rain that has happen and forecasted for 10 days or so. I would believe it, river has stayed up and if they are predicting a wet spring we could be in trouble. We hunt inside the levee north of Vicksburg and the river has been a real pain last couple of years.
0
Posted on 4/22/18 at 9:41 am to Chuker
quote:
I guess you're implying that 64 would top the levee system?
Rather than imply I will flatly state it, the MS river levee system can not hold out that much water without emergency measures such as sandbags, and yes it was of great concern in 2011.
Posted on 4/22/18 at 9:53 am to cave canem
Well then surely they'd have morganza and BC wide open by then. Seems like (at NTZ) 64 (or some level) is almost an impossible level given once the levee fails then the river would cease to go in elevation and would go wider instead.
Seems like I remember in the height of '11 flood that it still had a long way to go before topping the levees I looked at. But, obviously I didn't look at every levee.
Seems like I remember in the height of '11 flood that it still had a long way to go before topping the levees I looked at. But, obviously I didn't look at every levee.
Posted on 4/22/18 at 9:55 am to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Carry your triggered arse to some other thread. You can try and project your “you’re racist!” bullshite on someone else.
No problem. It was a simple question, and racists dont bother me...hell I'm racist in many ways, it's natural for all races to appreciate their own more than others.
quote:
Had I said he had no teeth, 9 toes, red hair, wore overalls, or any other thing you wouldn’t give a frick.
That's right though guy....same as I didnt need to know his color
Posted on 4/22/18 at 9:57 am to Chuker
quote:
Well then surely they'd have morganza and BC wide open
I remember passing over the Calumet Cut and Morgan City bridge in ‘11 and being shocked at how high the water was. Take away that wall and Morgan City would’ve been completely under water.
Posted on 4/22/18 at 10:07 am to Chuker
quote:
Well then surely they'd have morganza and BC wide open by then. Seems like (at NTZ) 64 (or some level) is almost an impossible level given once the levee fails then the river would cease to go in elevation and would go wider instead.
They will be wide open and the corp will go to extreme measures prior to reaching 64 at NTZ, remember the corp blowing levees in MO a few years back? They can and will do the same on the lower MS.
quote:
Seems like I remember in the height of '11 flood that it still had a long way to go before topping the levees I looked at. But, obviously I didn't look at every levee.
Most likely the tributaries would overtop first but I dont know that much about those in LA.
This post was edited on 4/22/18 at 10:09 am
Posted on 4/22/18 at 10:59 am to Chuker
Was 64.22 at Greenville in 2011, the big levee had a little room but was a lot of stress on levees and backup along Yazoo and other rivers. Was to arse of our lodge by Rolling Fork.
Posted on 4/22/18 at 11:37 am to the LSUSaint
Ole Curt was a black man, with white curly hair. When he had a fifth of wine he did not have a care.
Posted on 4/22/18 at 12:12 pm to the LSUSaint
quote:
Why does his color matter
Well... probably because this “old black man” has made a living and or has survived off that river for food. Whether fishing it or hunting the wildlife in areas based off the flooding that happens every year. I hunt in Ft Adams from time to time and they’re are a couple “old black men” there who I would take their word as gospel over the 100’s of other “white men” who are there couple months out the year when it comes to the area and that river.
Take your race baiting bullshite to another forum.
Posted on 4/22/18 at 4:04 pm to 4WHLN
Exactly right but he doesn’t deserve an explanation
Posted on 4/22/18 at 9:39 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
LINK
The farthest the NWS predicts out and considered operational is 28 days and that is on the anticipated rain for the next 48 hours.
They do preform a 28 day prediction with 16 days of forcasted rain but its highly variable.
LINK
So anyone trying to predict 30-60 days is purely conjecture. For it to get to 64ft in Natchez the Ohio Valley would need to get slammed with rain in May.
The farthest the NWS predicts out and considered operational is 28 days and that is on the anticipated rain for the next 48 hours.
They do preform a 28 day prediction with 16 days of forcasted rain but its highly variable.
LINK
So anyone trying to predict 30-60 days is purely conjecture. For it to get to 64ft in Natchez the Ohio Valley would need to get slammed with rain in May.
Posted on 4/22/18 at 9:53 pm to ScottieP
Thanks scottie. U da man. Sounds like maybe half of LA won't flood after all just yet.
btw everytime I see your username I think of the "no ragrets" guy.
btw everytime I see your username I think of the "no ragrets" guy.
Posted on 4/22/18 at 10:48 pm to cave canem
In ‘11 when the river was 61’ they only had like 4 or 6 gates open at morganza.
Posted on 4/22/18 at 11:24 pm to the LSUSaint
quote:
quote:
an old black man
Why does his color matter
You're kidding right?
Wisdom.
Posted on 4/23/18 at 12:26 am to Jack Daniel
quote:
In ‘11 when the river was 61’ they only had like 4 or 6 gates open at morganza.
Without getting into a drawn out discussion on the hydraulics I am not really qualified to have, the difference in volume and velocity between 61 and 64 is rather large.
Posted on 4/23/18 at 6:43 am to FelicianaTigerfan
My father had a camp at Old river in 2011.
The water level was highest I seen it since the early 1970’s.
2 ft higher than 2011 and they would have to open morganza locks early to reduce the pressure on the levee.
The water level was highest I seen it since the early 1970’s.
2 ft higher than 2011 and they would have to open morganza locks early to reduce the pressure on the levee.
Posted on 4/23/18 at 8:03 am to the LSUSaint
quote:
an old black man
Why does his color matter
On topics like this, an "old black man" likely is much more credible than any of the geeks studying computer models.
Posted on 4/23/18 at 10:39 am to Boudreaux35
quote:
On topics like this, an "old black man" likely is much more credible than any of the geeks studying computer models.
An old man is more capable of predicting the river level 3 weeks in the future than people who spend their careers studying river levels?
nah
Posted on 4/23/18 at 11:07 am to Chuker
quote:
An old man is more capable of predicting the river level 3 weeks in the future than people who spend their careers studying river levels?
Posted on 4/23/18 at 11:32 am to Larry Gooseman
Thirty miles on the Gulf Stream I hear the South wind moan*
The bridges getting lower, shrimp boats coming home
The old man down in the Quarter slowly turns his head
Takes a sip from his whiskey bottle and this is what he said
I was born in the rain on the Pontchartrain
Underneath the Louisiana Moon
I don’t mind the strain of a hurricane
They come around every June
High black water, a devil’s daughter
She’s hard, she’s cold, and she’s mean
But nobody taught her it takes a lot of water
To wash away New Orleans
Man came down from Chicago, he gonna set that levee right
He says, “It needs to be at least three feet higher,
it won’t make it through the night”
But the old man down in the Quarter,
He said don’t you listen to that boy
The water be down by the morning,
And he’ll be back to Illinois
The bridges getting lower, shrimp boats coming home
The old man down in the Quarter slowly turns his head
Takes a sip from his whiskey bottle and this is what he said
I was born in the rain on the Pontchartrain
Underneath the Louisiana Moon
I don’t mind the strain of a hurricane
They come around every June
High black water, a devil’s daughter
She’s hard, she’s cold, and she’s mean
But nobody taught her it takes a lot of water
To wash away New Orleans
Man came down from Chicago, he gonna set that levee right
He says, “It needs to be at least three feet higher,
it won’t make it through the night”
But the old man down in the Quarter,
He said don’t you listen to that boy
The water be down by the morning,
And he’ll be back to Illinois
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