Do you think Brady beats Peyton's TD record?

No but Brees does

Brees will average 40 TDs per year until he is 50.

Yes, but it won't be his record, it'll be Brees'

Last 4 years: brees averages 35 a year, Brady averages 33 a year.

I think they'll both surpass Peyton's TD number.

Hard to say. Brady is at an age where one year he will just fall off a cliff. It happened to Favre and Manning. Favre had maybe the best year of his career, and then could barely play at all the next year. Manning went from one of the best qb's in the league to the worst performance for a qb in the league his final year.

I think something else overlooked is if brady can throw 84 TDs to 35 INT in the next 3 years, which I believe is a fair expectation barring decline or injury, he would set the TD record while throwing almost 70 less interceptions that Manning, and would probably be about 60 less interceptions than brees (assuming brees plays 3 more years throwing 10 INT a year)

That would be the most difficult one to beat, IMO.

He's in superb shape but the odds say that he will break down sooner rather than later and 84 TDs is a LOT, as is 28/yr.

Wouldn't ever count him out but the odds...