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Help me understand this Storm Surge map

Posted on 2/3/17 at 8:27 pm
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80856 posts
Posted on 2/3/17 at 8:27 pm
You can toggle between category 1-5 hurricanes and see how much standing water will be on the map. I understand this may be factoring worst case, direct hits. However, how on earth can a category 3 hurricane result in 6+ feet of storm surge to be on the edges of LSU campus? A cat 3 will also have 9+ feet of water on both sides of I10 the entire stretch from Prairieville to Nola. Am I looking at this correctly?

LINK

This post was edited on 2/3/17 at 8:30 pm
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35710 posts
Posted on 2/3/17 at 8:34 pm to
It's probably for a storm going right up the Mississippi. The surge gets funnelled into the river. Only thing that makes sense.
Posted by NikeShox
Toula Baw
Member since Sep 2016
1251 posts
Posted on 2/3/17 at 8:41 pm to
If the River Levees would have failed in New Orleans, the Mississippi would still be running through the city today. No stopping that amount of water flow
Posted by man in the stadium
Member since Aug 2006
1408 posts
Posted on 2/3/17 at 8:53 pm to
I would take the NOAA stuff wth a grain of salt. Their statistical methods are known to generate overly conservative estimates. A better place to look is the link below. You can even type in your address.

LINK
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
425777 posts
Posted on 2/3/17 at 8:59 pm to
that is utter bullshite

it says a 3 will engulf LC in 9 feet of surge through i10

Rita was a strong 3 and didn't leave that sort of damage. the surge may have made its way to SLC, but nowhere near i10
Posted by BigSquirrel
Member since Jul 2013
1880 posts
Posted on 2/3/17 at 9:24 pm to
I think you're right to think it's wrong, it is. The description seems totally inaccurate IMFO, as if they found the LIDAR but didn't know what it was.
Posted by The Baker
This is fine.
Member since Dec 2011
16197 posts
Posted on 2/3/17 at 9:33 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 8:20 pm
Posted by Tigertracks
Houma La.
Member since Nov 2007
765 posts
Posted on 2/3/17 at 9:37 pm to
I believe this map is a compilation of the worst case of all possible storm landfalls. They would issue a forecast map for the possible storm surge showing only the areas likely to be affected by an approaching storm, not every storm like this map does.
Posted by MetryMike
Member since Jun 2013
160 posts
Posted on 2/4/17 at 3:47 am to
Note that a category 3 hurricane you mention could actually be pushing a category 5 storm surge, as the case with Katrina, because the categories are determined by continuous WIND speed at the time of LANDFALL rather than any measure of the water. In Katrina's case I believe at landfall it clocked sustained 127 mph (with gusts much higher), which gave it only a cat 3 designation. However, it was a HUGE storm with an eye which alone was 38 miles in diameter and which earlier was clocking sustained 175 mph and pushing a cat 5 storm surge. Where the eye struck in Plaquemines Parish the surge was measured at 30.4 feet deep, with wave action on top of that. Eyewitness accounts place water well over the tops of the backboards of the high school gymnasium.

Also I would imagine that the maps of projected water levels to which you refer may show the level any given location COULD receive should that particular location get the maximum possible hit, and NOT the levels which ALL locations would suffer.
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
32145 posts
Posted on 2/4/17 at 4:27 am to
quote:

However, how on earth can a category 3 hurricane result in 6+ feet of storm surge to be on the edges of LSU campus


Don't think I believe that. A big enough storm in the exact right spot can wreck things as the surge backs up into the Amite basin, but 6' at the LSU campus definitely makes that map suspect.

We are definitely vulnerable in south Louisiana though.
This post was edited on 2/4/17 at 4:29 am
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