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re: BMW "not budging" on Mexican plant
Posted on 1/16/17 at 2:20 pm to joshnorris14
Posted on 1/16/17 at 2:20 pm to joshnorris14
quote:
It's a negotiation tactic.
Help me out here. What's his end game?
He isn't slapping a 35% tariff on Mexican imports or making a dent in NAFTA. Not without Congress, and they aren't going to go along with it. Furthermore, the Mexican leadership knows that as well; are they going to play his kabuki dance for a wall?
He knows that a revanchist protectionism is bad for American companies and the American economy in the long run. Like real, real bad. What happens when Mexico turns around and slaps a 35% tariff on American imports (of which there are a lot, especially in auto manufacturing)?
Have you ever seen a chart of American manufacturing workers as a share of the economy since the 1960's? You can't even tell where NAFTA, TTIP, et al started because technology is 20 times more responsible for the decline in American manufacturing labor (not output, where we now manufacture more than we ever have) than globalization ever was. Why pursue this vainglorious and futile attempt at getting some halcyon days of manufacturing back?
I think it's hilarious how Trump ruffles a lot of feathers, but his economic protectionism fricking baffles me. TPP is a great example: that treaty was/is so heavily slanted towards the United States and our economic interests that the Chinese flat couldn't figure out what the hell happened and why we are rejecting it. Auto manufacturing is also a great example of why we need to move to a value-added system in calculating trade deficits; the current system is completely antiquated and is not an accurate picture of economic activity whatsoever.
So, you're a smart guy. Why do this?
5
Posted on 1/16/17 at 2:22 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
revanchist protectionism
Posted on 1/16/17 at 2:25 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
He isn't slapping a 35% tariff on Mexican imports or making a dent in NAFTA.
Mexico is begging him to renegotiate NAFTA with them. What are you talking about?
Posted on 1/16/17 at 2:27 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
So, you're a smart guy.
I don't think he is, but you're kidding yourself if you think you will elicit an earnest discussion outside of Twitter-friendly talking points.
Posted on 1/16/17 at 2:35 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
Have you ever seen a chart of American manufacturing workers as a share of the economy since the 1960's? You can't even tell where NAFTA, TTIP, et al started because technology is 20 times more responsible for the decline in American manufacturing labor (not output, where we now manufacture more than we ever have) than globalization ever was. Why pursue this vainglorious and futile attempt at getting some halcyon days of manufacturing back?
The process is generally proving to be
1) American workers
2) Offshore workers
3) Robots/technology
We should have spent the last 30-40 years changing our educational and skills training/creation systems to recognize this. We should have put more money into higher education, and more money into shop class and vo-tech schools. We did not do so, and now we have an entire class of people with no skills for today's jobs.
The idea, I think, is if we can get some of these jobs back to the USA, we can get them working, while at the same time, knowing that they won't be here forever. But it will give us time to take advantage of the "reset" to allow us to make those changes we should have made.
Consider it a second chance. It's actually very brilliant and something that would come from someone who understands business and economics, as opposed to government hacks.
Now, can we pull it off? Or will we waste this second chance? I'm not at all confident.
This post was edited on 1/16/17 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 1/16/17 at 3:36 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
revanchist protectionism
'revenge' protectionism. Revenge for what exactly?
quote:
Mexico turns around and slaps a 35% tariff on American imports
You do get that companies are moving to Mexico due to low wages, right? How ae Mexicans going to earn that extra 35%? By raising wages perhaps? Then how does that benefit BMW?
quote:
So, you're a smart guy. Why do this?
Youre just too naïve. Its the same thing that happened when we raised the minimum wage. Did that work?
Nope, jobs moved overseas, next we starting wholesale importing illegals, and now we've created H1B visas. All to get around paying higher wages
Population of Mexico is 127M. The US is 319M. BMW just built a plant in S. America in 2014. Who do you think they plan on selling those 120,000 vehicles a year to? Aint lower wage earning, border hoping Mexicans, for sure
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