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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:43 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20302 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:43 pm to
quote:

GEAUXmedic


Unsettling images for sure.
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:43 pm to
doesn't really matter exactly where the model puts it from there, GM. Time to be on alert, guys.
Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5351 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:45 pm to
Ends up near Mobile. Way too close for comfort. Is this the beginning of a westward trend?
Posted by Purple Spoon
Hoth
Member since Feb 2005
18690 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:45 pm to
Uhhhggg
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42276 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:46 pm to
Yea, if it were any other model i most likely would take it with a grain of salt, with it being the EURO i will most definitely be keeping a close eye on this one.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42276 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:47 pm to
Also looks to become a really big system in the Gulf on the Euro
Posted by Bama and Beer
Baldwin Co, AL
Member since Oct 2010
81611 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:48 pm to
God damn. Right up Mobile bay

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
87780 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:49 pm to
So basically due north for the last 24 hours of the run? That doesn't leave much room for error east and west.
Posted by glassman
Next to the beer taps at Finn's
Member since Oct 2008
116814 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

Right up Mobile bay


AKA your arse...
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
38918 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:49 pm to
frick. Really hoping now that this thing gets torn up in the islands
Posted by Bama and Beer
Baldwin Co, AL
Member since Oct 2010
81611 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:50 pm to
Exactly
Posted by FelicianaTigerfan
Comanche County
Member since Aug 2009
26059 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:50 pm to
What kinda strength does that picture indicate?

Cat 2?
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
119757 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:51 pm to
Are models this early ever worth a whole lot?
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42276 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:51 pm to
Just glancing at the map i would say a decent Cat 3
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
87780 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

What kinda strength does that picture indicate? Cat 2?


950mb could be 125 mph winds. Category 3.

I'm not an expert though.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
87780 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

Are models this early ever worth a whole lot?


I wouldn't make drastic decisions 8 days out, but it is definitely worth watching. All else being equal, you'd like the models to say it was going away from you.
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:53 pm to
quote:


What kinda strength does that picture indicate?

Cat 2?
doesn't matter

we're looking at model trends at this point.. mostly track and development trends. It's too far out to focus on minute details like wind speeds and central pressure, whatever.

the fact is that it looks like it will be in the gulf and will be a hurricane when it's there.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 1:57 pm
Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5351 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:54 pm to
It actually landfalls as a sub 940mb hurricane. That 950mb on the map is after some weakening after landfall.

I would guess it is a Major at landfall, maybe approaching cat 4 even.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 1:55 pm
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41600 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:55 pm to
Typically at this far out I'd rather be in the bullseye, but being the Euro... absolutely not.
Posted by GeauxLSUGeaux
1 room down from Erin Andrews
Member since May 2004
23988 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

Also Peej said we have nothing to worry about with this one in the other thread.



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