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Started By
Message
Pretty good write up for 2016
Posted on 8/17/16 at 5:38 pm
Posted on 8/17/16 at 5:38 pm
SIAP if this was already posted. I enjoyed reading it and seeing all the numbers so I figured others would as well. Kickoff is only a few days away. :)
2016 Write Up
2016 Write Up
7
Posted on 8/17/16 at 5:46 pm to gmac8604
Great article!
Posted on 8/17/16 at 5:49 pm to gmac8604
quote:
There will be plenty of opportunities for LSU to slip up before November. The Tigers have between a 69 and 80 percent chance against Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Auburn, Florida, and Ole Miss, and S&P+ says the odds of starting 8-0 are only about 16 percent. Still ... this feels like a one-game schedule, doesn't it? Or at least, it feels like LSU's season begins on November 5, when Alabama visits town.
Please help me understand this since I never had statistics. If the lowest projected winning percentage (i.e. odds) is 64% for a single game, then why is there only a 16% projection to be 8-0 on November 5th? Thanks.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 5:57 pm to TNTigerman
quote:
Please help me understand this since I never had statistics. If the lowest projected winning percentage (i.e. odds) is 64% for a single game, then why is there only a 16% projection to be 8-0 on November 5th? Thanks.
Because its harder to win 8 games than 1 game at a time. I probably didnt explain that worth a shite.
This post was edited on 8/17/16 at 6:00 pm
Posted on 8/17/16 at 6:16 pm to TNTigerman
quote:
Please help me understand this since I never had statistics. If the lowest projected winning percentage (i.e. odds) is 64% for a single game, then why is there only a 16% projection to be 8-0 on November 5th? Thanks
Because if there is a 10% chance of A happening if you do B, and you B ten times, then A will probably happen. In other words, although we have a high chance of winning all 8 individually, cumulatively it is very likely that the unlikely thing (a loss) will occur in the series of 8.
Put another way, there is 50% chance of getting heads on a coin toss. However, there is an exceedingly small chance of getting heads 10 times in a row (1 in 1,024). So, even if there was an 80% chance of getting heads on a single toss, it would still be very unlikely to get heads eight times in a row.
This post was edited on 8/17/16 at 6:19 pm
Posted on 8/17/16 at 6:27 pm to TNTigerman
Probability comes into the equation.
This post was edited on 8/17/16 at 6:28 pm
Posted on 8/17/16 at 6:33 pm to Todd515151
quote:
Because if there is a 10% chance of A happening if you do B, and you B ten times, then A will probably happen. In other words, although we have a high chance of winning all 8 individually, cumulatively it is very likely that the unlikely thing (a loss) will occur in the series of 8. Put another way, there is 50% chance of getting heads on a coin toss. However, there is an exceedingly small chance of getting heads 10 times in a row (1 in 1,024). So, even if there was an 80% chance of getting heads on a single toss, it would still be very unlikely to get heads eight times in a row.
This man knows his probabilities and statistics!!!!
Posted on 8/17/16 at 6:58 pm to TNTigerman
In order to get the odds of staying undefeated, you multiply the percentage wins of each game. So if you have a 50% chance of winning 2 game, your odds of going 2-0 are 25%. 50%*50%= 25%
I ran the math he did, and he is right. It comes out to 16.125%.
According to that math, LSU has a 3.67% chance of going undefeated through the regular season
I ran the math he did, and he is right. It comes out to 16.125%.
According to that math, LSU has a 3.67% chance of going undefeated through the regular season
Posted on 8/17/16 at 7:08 pm to TNTigerman
Because odds multiply. If you're odds of winning each game is 75% your odds of winning two in a row are .75*.75=0.56; 10 in a row is 0.75 to the 10th power, or 5.6%
Posted on 8/17/16 at 7:34 pm to Penrod
But, this is where odds and statistics break down, I think. You aren't dealing with chance. You have the strength of LSU versus the strength of other teams.
If LSU played Jacksonville St. we would give them around a 90% chance of winning, right? Well, according to the above approach, if they played Jacksonville St. 12 times in a season, they would only have a 25% chance of going undefeated. That is just wrong.
LSU would go 12-0 against Jacksonville St. if they played 12 times. I have no doubt of that.
These stats are flawed. It is not a coin flip.
If LSU played Jacksonville St. we would give them around a 90% chance of winning, right? Well, according to the above approach, if they played Jacksonville St. 12 times in a season, they would only have a 25% chance of going undefeated. That is just wrong.
LSU would go 12-0 against Jacksonville St. if they played 12 times. I have no doubt of that.
These stats are flawed. It is not a coin flip.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 7:43 pm to gmac8604
Good reading...
So different from Wisconsin where we'd be happy with 8 wins this year and a respectable bowl berth (Holiday, Outback, etc).
A few random thoughts:
I don't think Dave Aranda would have taken the job if he didn't feel LSU had the personnel on defense to run his system. It's complex, the players need to buy in and take the time to study and learn, and then he needs the right kind of athletes.
He couldn't fully implement his scheme until last season at Wisconsin due to lack of players with the physical skill set to run his defense. Watch a replay of the Holiday Bowl against USC if you want to feel all warm and fuzzy about what Dave Aranda can do with the right kids, lol.
Wisconsin is a "developmental" program. It's the only D1 school in the state. So we've built a wall around Wisconsin, and a big part of that is the preferred walk-on program. Guys like JJ Watt, Jim Leonhard, and our recently departed (and imperfect) QB all could have gotten a full ride at Eastern Illinois or similar but knew they'd have a real shot at the big leagues if they paid their own way for a year or two in Madison.
But those kids take a few years to blossom usually. As to the three star kids that are overlooked in Texas or Florida that the Badger staff has a knack for discovering.
And like Stanford, Northwestern, and a few other programs you can't get admitted to Wisconsin unless you're a legitimate student. Yeah, most of the football team couldn't get into Wisconsin on academics alone, but they could get into a four year college somewhere else.
So the Badgers are pretty good most of the time, very good every few years, and we don't have the depth or the margin of error to survive misfortune like injuries or a murderous schedule.
As for this year's team: they should be pretty good. The usual question marks that afflict any college program which loses 30% or more of their starters each year. Our OL should be a lot better. Our LBs are deep and good. We have depth and experience at RB.
Who knows about the passing game, though. Our likely starter based on recent rumors is an RS frosh who was an early enrollee when Chryst came back after Gary Anderson demoted himself and took the job at Oregon State. Our receivers seem promising but they're an unproven lot and our best receiver has been injury prone and inconsistent.
The DL should be very good. Placekicking should be very good. Punter? Not sure. We lost our safeties and that's a real source of worry. Pretty solid CB's, though.
I'd only bet on Wisconsin against LSU if the spread was over seven points. First game against a more talented squad hasn't gone well for Wisconsin. Ever. As far as I can remember. Again, we develop players. We don't recruit kids who are ready for the NFL on day one. We develop them as we did with JJ Watt.
It'll be fun and I hope anybody heading up to the Badger State hangs around for a few days and enjoys the lovely late summer weather.
And I'm not an expert. I'm pretty much interpreting and repeating what the smarter guys on Wisconsin message boards would likely say if they posted herre.
So different from Wisconsin where we'd be happy with 8 wins this year and a respectable bowl berth (Holiday, Outback, etc).
A few random thoughts:
I don't think Dave Aranda would have taken the job if he didn't feel LSU had the personnel on defense to run his system. It's complex, the players need to buy in and take the time to study and learn, and then he needs the right kind of athletes.
He couldn't fully implement his scheme until last season at Wisconsin due to lack of players with the physical skill set to run his defense. Watch a replay of the Holiday Bowl against USC if you want to feel all warm and fuzzy about what Dave Aranda can do with the right kids, lol.
Wisconsin is a "developmental" program. It's the only D1 school in the state. So we've built a wall around Wisconsin, and a big part of that is the preferred walk-on program. Guys like JJ Watt, Jim Leonhard, and our recently departed (and imperfect) QB all could have gotten a full ride at Eastern Illinois or similar but knew they'd have a real shot at the big leagues if they paid their own way for a year or two in Madison.
But those kids take a few years to blossom usually. As to the three star kids that are overlooked in Texas or Florida that the Badger staff has a knack for discovering.
And like Stanford, Northwestern, and a few other programs you can't get admitted to Wisconsin unless you're a legitimate student. Yeah, most of the football team couldn't get into Wisconsin on academics alone, but they could get into a four year college somewhere else.
So the Badgers are pretty good most of the time, very good every few years, and we don't have the depth or the margin of error to survive misfortune like injuries or a murderous schedule.
As for this year's team: they should be pretty good. The usual question marks that afflict any college program which loses 30% or more of their starters each year. Our OL should be a lot better. Our LBs are deep and good. We have depth and experience at RB.
Who knows about the passing game, though. Our likely starter based on recent rumors is an RS frosh who was an early enrollee when Chryst came back after Gary Anderson demoted himself and took the job at Oregon State. Our receivers seem promising but they're an unproven lot and our best receiver has been injury prone and inconsistent.
The DL should be very good. Placekicking should be very good. Punter? Not sure. We lost our safeties and that's a real source of worry. Pretty solid CB's, though.
I'd only bet on Wisconsin against LSU if the spread was over seven points. First game against a more talented squad hasn't gone well for Wisconsin. Ever. As far as I can remember. Again, we develop players. We don't recruit kids who are ready for the NFL on day one. We develop them as we did with JJ Watt.
It'll be fun and I hope anybody heading up to the Badger State hangs around for a few days and enjoys the lovely late summer weather.
And I'm not an expert. I'm pretty much interpreting and repeating what the smarter guys on Wisconsin message boards would likely say if they posted herre.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:03 am to LSUstephen17
quote:
This man knows his probabilities and statistics!!!!
Thanks for the love!
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:38 am to gmac8604
quote:
2016 projected wins: 9.3
Posted on 8/18/16 at 8:47 am to gmac8604
I do like that a national writer finally didn't automatically blame the QB for last year. The QB wasn't great but he wasn't the only problem either nor the biggest. Defense not being able to stop Bama, Arky, and Ole Miss was the problem. Everybody that is just chalking it up to bad QB play is just grabbing at a false narrative.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 9:49 am to AlaTiger
quote:
But, this is where odds and statistics break down, I think. You aren't dealing with chance. You have the strength of LSU versus the strength of other teams.
If LSU played Jacksonville St. we would give them around a 90% chance of winning, right? Well, according to the above approach, if they played Jacksonville St. 12 times in a season, they would only have a 25% chance of going undefeated. That is just wrong.
LSU would go 12-0 against Jacksonville St. if they played 12 times. I have no doubt of that.
These stats are flawed. It is not a coin flip.
It seems like you might have a problem with the individual game odds, not the calculations. If LSU would be expected to beat a team 12 consecutive times, then the individual win % should be higher than 90% (and it is...I'm not sure why you said 90% for Jacksonville State when the article uses 99%).
90% means would win 90 out of 100 times, or 9 out of 10 times. That means that in 10 games you expect to lose 1. If you do not expect to lose 1 out of 10, then the problem isn't that the statistics broke down, it is that you should not be claiming 90%.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 11:28 am to TNTigerman
quote:
Please help me understand this since I never had statistics. If the lowest projected winning percentage (i.e. odds) is 64% for a single game, then why is there only a 16% projection to be 8-0 on November 5th? Thanks.
Because to be undefeated, they have to have their percentage chance of winning come through for them every team and not fail once.
If you play 10 games and have an 80% chance of winning in each game, then your chance of going undefeated is .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 = 0.107 = 10.7% chance of going undefeated.
Think of rolling a die. Your chance of rolling a 6 is only 16.7%. So, on one roll, you likely won't roll one. But, keep rolling the dice with a 16.7% chance every time, and you are going to roll a 6 eventually. It's the same thing with playing football games. Keep taking a 10-30% of losing in each game over several games and eventually you are going to lose one.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 11:31 am to gmac8604
Interesting stats about our WR success rates last year. TQ8 was actually 6 catches on 6 targets, but one catch was called back for a penalty.
Our WR numbers WILL be better this fall, way too many drops last season.
Our WR numbers WILL be better this fall, way too many drops last season.
This post was edited on 8/18/16 at 11:38 am
Posted on 8/18/16 at 11:34 am to AlaTiger
quote:
If LSU played Jacksonville St. we would give them around a 90% chance of winning, right? Well, according to the above approach, if they played Jacksonville St. 12 times in a season, they would only have a 25% chance of going undefeated. That is just wrong.
LSU would go 12-0 against Jacksonville St. if they played 12 times. I have no doubt of that.
The flaw in your reasoning here is that if there is "no doubt" that LSU would go 12-0 in 12 games versus Jacksonville State, then LSU has much more than a 90% chance of winning in each game.
If the chances are truly 90%, then yes, there would be only a small chance of going undefeated in 12 games.
quote:
These stats are flawed. It is not a coin flip.
Neither is a free throw, but if these stats are flawed and every probability over 50% is assumed to occur, then a 51% free throw shooter would make every free throw he attempts, which would mean he isn't a 51% free throw shooter.
Something that is guaranteed to occur every time has a 100% probability. If it has less than 100% probability, then it is not guaranteed to occur every time and, given enough times/attempts, it will eventually not occur.
Posted on 8/18/16 at 11:54 am to zoobadger
quote:
don't think Dave Aranda would have taken the job if he didn't feel LSU had the personnel on defense to run his system. It's complex, the players need to buy in and take the time to study and learn, and then he needs the right kind of athletes.
By all accounts from players, his scheme is much easier and more simple than what they had to learn last year in a NFL type defensive scheme
Posted on 8/18/16 at 3:01 pm to gmac8604
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