re: Chances that Pellini turns around Nebraska

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1- Reaches a higher BCS ranking than Saban or Petrino within the first 2 years

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Depends on how you count "higher BCS ranking." The BCS only ranks the top 25, and it's not very likely that any of the three will make that cut in the next two years. But if you expand the projected rankings out to include all three teams, then I would say very likely. Both of the other two have a lot more tough teams on their schedule and are likely to rack up more losses than Pelini will if he improves Nebraska any noticeable amount. And he is ideally suited to do so, since their most glaring flaw is an absolutely abysmal defense. He should be able to make it at least bad right off the bat, which would be a dramatic improvement.

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2- Stays at Nebraska longer than either Saban or Patrino stay at their jobs

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Has way too much to do with wins and losses to adequately predict now. I'd guess he will have more slack than either of them, but that's just a guess.

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3- Wins a National Championship at Nebraska within 5 years

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Highly doubtful. Though clearly not the SEC, the Big XII is a legit conference. And with both OU and Texas in the conference, getting over that hump and into the National Title game will take a lot of building and a lot of luck. It would be asking a LOT to get there in 5 years.

It wouldn't surprise me to see his team in the hunt late into the season 4 or 5 years from now. But future schedules (i.e., missing Texas and/or OU until a potential Big XII Championship Game matchup) will have a lot to do with that as well.