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Posted on 8/1/16 at 8:34 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 8:34 pm
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/9/20 at 6:01 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 8:38 pm to pelicansfan123
Everyone has been over this, the Pac has said they will never accept BYU.
And Oklahoma would never ever ever join the SEC.
They would go Indy with Texas if both had no option.
And Oklahoma would never ever ever join the SEC.
They would go Indy with Texas if both had no option.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 8:39 pm to pelicansfan123
People always talk about breakaway from the NCAA, but all of the school and administrator bigwigs are the NCAA. So, what are they really breaking away from? Unless, the point is they don't want to subsidize the lesser conferences. But, it seems like that will invite lawsuits, congressional scrutiny, and jeopardize the amateur and tax-exempt sham.
Dan Wetzel on Yahoo has said he thinks expansion will die when cable channels go a la carte and ESPN/conferences can't shove their subscriber fees down everyone's throat.
Dan Wetzel on Yahoo has said he thinks expansion will die when cable channels go a la carte and ESPN/conferences can't shove their subscriber fees down everyone's throat.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 8:42 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 8:55 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
Dan Wetzel on Yahoo has said he thinks expansion will die when cable channels go a la carte and ESPN/conferences can't shove their subscriber fees down everyone's throat.
That's kind of what I've thought the last few years, but it'll be a slow process. I don't think conferences want Rutgers-like red herrings (no offense to you B1G guys) hanging over them. That addition, both at the time and now, seemed like a short-term cash grab that was not particularly strategically intelligent long-term; Nebraska, Penn State, and even to a lesser extent Maryland were good adds - I have never really understood the Rutgers add, as I still don't think the conference cable model (and most cable models, for that matter) in its current form is all that sustainable.
I happen to think a lot of it depends on the health of football in twenty or thirty years. Conferences will look very different if the quality of the sport is way down or health concerns become over-riding.
I think you could see one of two things happen:
- The major conferences all get to around 16 and then start to break apart back to 7 - 8 team conferences. At that size, conferences don't have all that much cohesion and teams are just in simple strategic alliances. If certain chunks of the conferences (say, the PAC 12 South or B1G East) think they can make out much better without programs a 1,000+ miles away with whom they have little in common, then they'll do it. This would work sort of how companies in certain industries go through cycles of M&A for many years and then cycles of break-offs/spin-offs for many years.
- Some of the bigger players (Texas, Michigan, SC, Alabama, Florida, etc.) start to explore independence.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:08 pm to AbuTheMonkey
Agree. Conferences will crumble slowly back to 7-8 teams. Second scenario is some of the bigger players go independent using funds from major TV endorsements to find travel etc.
I think the most dangerous aspect is they're basing expansion entirely too much on one sport.
I think the most dangerous aspect is they're basing expansion entirely too much on one sport.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:09 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
This would work sort of how companies in certain industries go through cycles of M&A for many years and then cycles of break-offs/spin-offs for many years.
I can see that.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:10 pm to pelicansfan123
Some say Texas wants to go to the Big 10 after LHN runs out. I can't wait to play Indiana in November.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:23 pm to Rhino5
quote:
I think the most dangerous aspect is they're basing expansion entirely too much on one sport.
Better model for them might be superconferences for football, traditional conferences for MBB, and tight geographic conferences for nonrevenue sports.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:03 pm to pelicansfan123
quote:
What do y'all eventually think will happen with college football expansion?
conferences will lose their identity. but the money will be really big so the conferences will have to adapt. they will have more than one playoff game to determine the conference champ (like a 4 team pod playoff) before the national playoff.
the big 12 will die and their better teams will join one of the other super conferences. that will leave 4 conferences. somewhere along the line the minor schools will sue and something will have to be done (probably a split from the ncaa by the big football schools).
we'll be looking at some teams playing a 16+ game season.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:06 pm to LSU GrandDad
quote:
probably a split from the ncaa by the big football schools
That doesn't happen unless the revenue from a football super division is greater than the lost money from giving up March Madness.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:19 pm to LSU GrandDad
There will be 5 super conferences of 16 teams, and then the mid majors.
Playoff will go to 8 teams with the 5 super conferences champions and 1 from champion from the other conferences (if ranked in top 8), the other teams to fill out playoff spots will be based on final ranking
Big 10-
Big 12-
ACC-
Sec-
Pac 12-
Mountain west-
Conference USA-
Independents-
Sun belt-
Playoff will go to 8 teams with the 5 super conferences champions and 1 from champion from the other conferences (if ranked in top 8), the other teams to fill out playoff spots will be based on final ranking
Big 10-
Big 12-
ACC-
Sec-
Pac 12-
Mountain west-
Conference USA-
Independents-
Sun belt-
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:21 pm to Bestbank Tiger
College Football is so big there is no reason it can't just breakaway from NCAA oversight....and just be what it's always been a semipro and totally corrupt (by NCAA standards).
NCAA has never governed the mythical champ.
It's always been a TV popularity contest among random and lately Mostly ESPN voters who have a contract to get their programing into the big game.
College Football is so loose and fast and doesn't ever really decide much but politics and bar arguments...
It should really break away to not pretend anymore about student athletes.
Because everyone is doing the same thing but it's politics and influence that decides who gets investigated and who can run free.
Everyone breaks the rules and from history we all know the SEC is the worst.
So the last 10 years have been a nod and a wink.
Big10 has had some issues but nothing like
Let's just all cone out... defect from the NCAA and compete on an even cheating scale.
We can then just see the real professional recruiting and paying.
Why not, pay them.
I think if we had an open bidding war...Texas, USC, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State would win out and Bama and Notre Dame would lose out.
NCAA has never governed the mythical champ.
It's always been a TV popularity contest among random and lately Mostly ESPN voters who have a contract to get their programing into the big game.
College Football is so loose and fast and doesn't ever really decide much but politics and bar arguments...
It should really break away to not pretend anymore about student athletes.
Because everyone is doing the same thing but it's politics and influence that decides who gets investigated and who can run free.
Everyone breaks the rules and from history we all know the SEC is the worst.
So the last 10 years have been a nod and a wink.
Big10 has had some issues but nothing like
Let's just all cone out... defect from the NCAA and compete on an even cheating scale.
We can then just see the real professional recruiting and paying.
Why not, pay them.
I think if we had an open bidding war...Texas, USC, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State would win out and Bama and Notre Dame would lose out.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 11:29 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:26 pm to Rhino5
quote:
I think the most dangerous aspect is they're basing expansion entirely too much on one sport.
Long-term, that certainly is one of the bigger threats, if not the biggest.
I think the larger short-term threat is the disruption of current cable TV model. Subscriber numbers for the bigger conference networks (namely, the SEC and B1G) are pretty healthy at the moment, but I just haven't seen any market research data that's able to un-bundle conference network subscriptions and conference contracts from general cable contracts. If it's out there, I'd like to see it - it seems like something right up WSJ's alley. The conferences are already pre-empting this a bit by putting more and more live content on the conference networks, but quality of competition and brand - and not market size - still matter a great deal in this field.
You also have secondary threats like generational shifts in sports-watching methods, further demographic shifts, and attitudinal shifts regarding university finances.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 11:31 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:50 pm to pelicansfan123
I feel bad for Baylor and TCU fans because those two schools will be left out of the final superconference alignment.
BYU? I just don't see a conference wanting to deal with them.
At this point, I hope the conference does not expand and then begins a smooth break up / separation in the coming years.
BYU? I just don't see a conference wanting to deal with them.
At this point, I hope the conference does not expand and then begins a smooth break up / separation in the coming years.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 11:51 pm
Posted on 8/2/16 at 12:40 am to KillTheGophers
I guess I don't pay attention to them or really conference expansion but what's the issue P5 conferences have with adding BYU?
Posted on 8/2/16 at 12:42 am to lsufball19
there are multiple but the biggest one are the scheduling issues that come from them not wanting to play on sundays
Posted on 8/2/16 at 9:38 am to WestCoastAg
I see the BIG going after Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas if re-alignment does take place.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 9:46 am to pelicansfan123
quote:
Big 10 will scoop up Kansas and Iowa State
For a couple reasons, I highly, highly doubt the B1G ever goes after Iowa State.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 9:47 am to pelicansfan123
The Pac will never add BYU.
The Big 10 will never add Iowa State.
The SEC will never add Oklahoma State.
The SEC when we expand will get some combination of Oklahoma, Kansas, a North Carolina school (or 2 if Duke + UNC), a Virginia school, and\or West Virginia.
None of the above 3 conferences will ever add a school from a state they already have a member in except in the case of adding UNC + Duke or in the case of taking Texas when already having a Texas school. (or taking Tech with Texas as the Pac will probably do)
The Big 10 will never add Iowa State.
The SEC will never add Oklahoma State.
The SEC when we expand will get some combination of Oklahoma, Kansas, a North Carolina school (or 2 if Duke + UNC), a Virginia school, and\or West Virginia.
None of the above 3 conferences will ever add a school from a state they already have a member in except in the case of adding UNC + Duke or in the case of taking Texas when already having a Texas school. (or taking Tech with Texas as the Pac will probably do)
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