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Anyone think Tom Herman is a bit overrated?
Posted on 12/4/15 at 1:19 pm
Posted on 12/4/15 at 1:19 pm
Houston has had to have had the most overrated 11-1 season in CFB history. Plenty of non-power conference teams have gone 11-1 before, so why all the hype?
Let's look at Houston's schedule, using Sagarin ratings:
#204 Tennessee Tech
@ #35 Louisville
#157 Texas State
@ #96 Tulsa
#123 SMU
@ #148 Tulane
@ #168 UCF
#87 Vanderbilt
#62 Cincinnati
#38 Memphis
@ #91 Connecticut
#30 Navy
So 8 of the first 9 opponents were total trash. The non-trash opponent was #35 Louisville, who is OK and finished the year 7-5. I'd say 40 teams could have gone unbeaten against the first 9 opponents Houston faced.
Then they played Memphis who had just been boat raced at home by Navy. Even then, Houston needed a 20 point rally to win by a point.
They lost to UCONN, ranked #91 in the Sagarin rankings.
They finished the year by beating Navy at home.
Houston benefited from getting all the AAC contenders at home. Louisville was the only away game they played ranked in the Top 90!
Houston reminds me more of that 2007 Hawai'i team than the 2009/2010 TCU and Boise State teams. Playing a poor schedule and scraping by too many teams.
Those TCU/Boise State teams blew out everyone they played, even the quality opponents.
I think Tom Herman should establish himself a bit better and get some quality non-conference scalps(no, 7-5 Louisville won't cut it) before we declare him the next great coach.
Let's look at Houston's schedule, using Sagarin ratings:
#204 Tennessee Tech
@ #35 Louisville
#157 Texas State
@ #96 Tulsa
#123 SMU
@ #148 Tulane
@ #168 UCF
#87 Vanderbilt
#62 Cincinnati
#38 Memphis
@ #91 Connecticut
#30 Navy
So 8 of the first 9 opponents were total trash. The non-trash opponent was #35 Louisville, who is OK and finished the year 7-5. I'd say 40 teams could have gone unbeaten against the first 9 opponents Houston faced.
Then they played Memphis who had just been boat raced at home by Navy. Even then, Houston needed a 20 point rally to win by a point.
They lost to UCONN, ranked #91 in the Sagarin rankings.
They finished the year by beating Navy at home.
Houston benefited from getting all the AAC contenders at home. Louisville was the only away game they played ranked in the Top 90!
Houston reminds me more of that 2007 Hawai'i team than the 2009/2010 TCU and Boise State teams. Playing a poor schedule and scraping by too many teams.
Those TCU/Boise State teams blew out everyone they played, even the quality opponents.
I think Tom Herman should establish himself a bit better and get some quality non-conference scalps(no, 7-5 Louisville won't cut it) before we declare him the next great coach.
Posted on 12/4/15 at 1:24 pm to accnodefense

Serious, answer... Maybe. I mean. Hell. Tony Levine won 8 games each of his last two years there. They weren't THAT bad.
This post was edited on 12/4/15 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 12/4/15 at 1:25 pm to accnodefense
I think the jury is out on him. I could see him being very good, but not based on this one season. Anyone remember Gus Malzahn after 2013? It was like he was the second best coach in the SEC all of a sudden after one year on the job.
Posted on 12/4/15 at 1:26 pm to accnodefense
I think it has more to do with what he did with OSU's offense last year tbh
Posted on 12/4/15 at 1:29 pm to accnodefense
When the madness was happening I said I'd prefer to see a larger sample size from him. Got shouted down about how we were losing the next great coach.
Posted on 12/4/15 at 1:30 pm to accnodefense
He is Sumlin 2.0.
So no.
So no.
Posted on 12/4/15 at 1:46 pm to cardboardboxer
One season as HC isn't a big enough sample size, anyhoo.
This post was edited on 12/4/15 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 12/4/15 at 1:49 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Anyone think Tom Herman is a bit overrated? by accnodefense
I don't think he is overrated as he has been a successful OC at 3 schools, won a NC as an OC, and been very good from all accounts as a HC this year, even outside the W/L record. He seems to have gotten UH people excited.
I also don't think any coach who has 1 year of experience at a non power 5 school should be getting calls from UGA or LSU or whoever was actually calling him?
Overrated? No
Not yet Ripe? Yes
Posted on 12/4/15 at 1:54 pm to accnodefense
I remember when Kevin Sumlin was the next can't miss, coaching genius coming out of Houston. That guy can't even beat Les Miles.
Posted on 12/4/15 at 1:55 pm to accnodefense
It is his first year as a HC and he greatly improved the team what is overrated?
Posted on 12/4/15 at 2:03 pm to VerlanderBEAST
Houston won 8 games last year. Sure, 11 games is an improvement, but improving a mid major by 3 games doesn't make a guy the next Bill Walsh like some on this board pretend.
Posted on 12/4/15 at 2:08 pm to accnodefense
I mean, you can't really poke any holes in the guy's resume thus far. He's been fantastic everywhere he's been.
Posted on 12/4/15 at 2:11 pm to cardboardboxer
I think it's shortsighted to dismiss him as Kevin Sumlin 2.0, simply because they both coached at Houston. Herman is a member of Mensa and was largely responsible for the embarrassment of riches at QB for Ohio State. What's one (if not) the biggest problem LSU has had the past decade?
QB development. Herman has proven he can develop talent and it would have been fun to see what he could have accomplished at LSU.
QB development. Herman has proven he can develop talent and it would have been fun to see what he could have accomplished at LSU.
Posted on 12/4/15 at 2:18 pm to Volmanac
quote:
Houston won 8 games last year. Sure, 11 games is an improvement, but improving a mid major by 3 games doesn't make a guy the next Bill Walsh like some on this board pretend.
Especially when they got all their hard games at home.
Posted on 12/4/15 at 2:19 pm to accnodefense
Nope, would've loved to have him as a HC.
Posted on 12/4/15 at 2:30 pm to Dignan
quote:
QB development. Herman has proven he can develop talent and it would have been fun to see what he could have accomplished at LSU.
Sumlin had the exact same reputation as a QB guru before he came to Texas A&M.
Sumlin had a direct positive effect on the careers of the following QBs:
-Drew Bledsoe
-Drew Brees
-Jason White
-Sam Bradford
-Case Keenum
I am telling you, Herman is Sumlin 2.0.
Posted on 12/4/15 at 2:31 pm to CockInYourEar
People on this board think he's a coaching God
Posted on 12/4/15 at 2:34 pm to wildtigercat93
quote:
People on this board think he's a coaching God
I think that's an exaggeration. I think he was one of the best candidates out there for any P5 job. There isn't a school (except So Cal) who didn't have him in their Top3 wishlist.
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