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Started By
Message
re: My thoughts on Auburn
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:34 am to tigerclaw10
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:34 am to tigerclaw10
Les will keep the game close and give AU a chance to win late. It's just how Les does it.
1
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:38 am to Oyster
quote:
Les will keep the game close and give AU a chance to win late. It's just how Les does it.
Yea, just like the last time Auburn played in Death Valley.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:40 am to LNCHBOX
I'm chiming in so ya'll can get a hot take on AU from an AU fan who is on the fence about the team. 
Key Notes
Auburn has had MAJOR injury issues with no guarantee they will be resolved by LSU. Injuries are listed at the below for the 1 O & 5 D starters that missed extensive time/didn't play for Jax St
Auburn's OL should be significantly improved for the LSU game. Against UL's highly ranked front 7, they had 0 sacks and high YPC. Injury to the RT and Jax St "cut defending" and clogging run lanes was a great wrinkle to take away the run and force throws. LSU has a good front 7 but AU's OL should not be the dumpster fire it was vs Jax St
Auburn RB Peyton Barber has been the bell cow. Guy has put the team on his back and finds yards despite loaded box. He just can't do it alone forever
QB Jeremy Johnson can't throw and doesn't run. His inability to force D to respect the pass and his lack of read option "reads" puts more pressure on Barber.
WR Ricardo Louis has finally paired catching balls with his athleticism. He was ESPN's #1 athlete out of HS for a reason. He is strong, quick and top end speed. Runs quality sweep plays and downfield threat, if a QB could take advantage he is a scary matchup
WR Duke Williams has been noticeably absent. He had conduct issues earlier and so it is hard to say that the pre season All American is poised for a down year or ready to breakout
General Offense Outlook
It all depends on Jeremy Johnson. Auburn likely tries to put him in higher percentage scenarios and ask less of him. If he can be a average to solid QB, the offense can be deadly. Auburn has elite weapons now at WR, RB is a workhorse and OL is better than the casual observer would believe
That being said, Jeremy Johnson sucks so we are screwed.
Key Injuries Concerns Offense-
OT AVery Young - Undisclosed - Probable
Avery Young is AU's best OL and very underrated. 3 Year starter (arguably 4 with med RS yr). He was out the entirety of Jax St game and you could tell. Bad communication/cohesion and clear dropoff at RT + RG where we took our RT. I expect our OL to be significantly improved from last game
Injuries have been the determining factor. When Auburn's season starters were out, they shut out Louisville, got absurd amounts of pressure and defended passes. When Lawson, Matthews and Garrett were injured, our defense fell apart.
DT Monty Adams + Russell AU has no depth at DT, it actually is scary. Adams has been elite 1st RD caliber so for this year. He has beaten double teams, fought through traps and still put up solid stats. This has opened up for Dontavius Russell who has a few sacks/TFL. Russell got banged up vs Jax St but he is solid DT who defends the run well and gets some pressure. He is isn't as good as his statline so far while healthy but the two make a great tandem. Behind them we are barren. Like woman with no eggs level bad.
DE Carl Lawson/Lambert - Lawson has been on crutches. When in, our DL is elite. When out we have no outside pass rush. He is to AU what JJ Watt is to Houston, that big of a deal. Lambert is hot garbage. He is our new Jake Holland
LB Frost/McKinzy/Garrett/Williams - Auburn plays 2 LB but regularly substitutes. Against LSU, we likely will run 3 LB. Unfortunately, Garrett is our best LB and has a naggin thigh injury. McKinzy got banged up in Jax St but should be good. Frost is garbage and Williams can't beat him out.
DBs - We rotate in a lot so hard to pick everyone out but our DBs are average to solid. We rotate in two freshman regularly who are good but prone to rookie mistakes. Our DBs aren't easy pickings but there will be lapses in judgment/coverage
Defense Outlook
Auburn's defense statistically may look the same, but it is definitely improved from second half 2014. Injuries are the only thing holding back but those likely won't be completely resolved by LSU. The defense is a boom or bust type defense, regularly blitzes and can make great plays. With young DBs and first year in the system, there are some major scheme breakdowns but overall, they aren't hot garbage.
The JSU QB made some unbelievable throws and the WRs were AMAZING. They may not have been Odell Beckham, but I have never seen no name WRs catch EVERYTHING. Just watch the last play of the JSU AU game, the guy caught overthrown triple coverage ball out of bounds. That happened all game
Key Injuries Concerns Defense-
DE Carl Lawson- Hip Flexor - questionable
Carl Lawson is the best player on AU's team. Louisville scored 0 points for the 2 quarters he played and while he wasn't perfect, his QB hurries, sacks TFL in one half was game changing.
S Tre Matthews - Shoulder - Questionable/Probable
Tre Matthews is the best player in our secondary. His injury vs Louisville combined with Lawson opened the floodgates. He is excellent in run support, great in coverage and likely early entrant into NFL draft regardless of how injury affects season. He is good
LB - Justin Garrett - Quad - Questionable/Probable
Garrett has statistically been our best and most consistent LB. He may not be as highlight worthy as others, but he makes plays, is in the right spot and regularly helps the defense.
DB - Josh Holsey - Knee - Questionable
Holsey has a SR with extensive experience. He doesn't start but rotates in regularly and is a huge difference maker. The injury to Tre Matthews makes Holsey's injury a bigger deal
DT - Dontavius Russell - Ankle - Probable
Russell had 2 sacks against Louisville and while clearly not up to Monty Adams level, Russell is playing at a high level for a RS FR. Run game for Jax St only took off when he was sidelined
If AU has some guys return from injury, LSU will need Brandon Harris to be more than token QB. The AU DL with Carl Lawson have been elite minus Lambert. The LBs, especially Cass McKinzy are better against more pro style run games like LSU. Fournette will get his yards, but he will need Harris to maek some more throws/ReadOption plays than he did vs MSU.
Offensively, it is hard to say what Auburn will do. If Johnson is bad, it is easy to see 14-17 points being our ceiling. If he is average to good, Auburn could pile on because they have that level of talent.
Key Notes
Auburn has had MAJOR injury issues with no guarantee they will be resolved by LSU. Injuries are listed at the below for the 1 O & 5 D starters that missed extensive time/didn't play for Jax St
quote:
Offense
Auburn's OL should be significantly improved for the LSU game. Against UL's highly ranked front 7, they had 0 sacks and high YPC. Injury to the RT and Jax St "cut defending" and clogging run lanes was a great wrinkle to take away the run and force throws. LSU has a good front 7 but AU's OL should not be the dumpster fire it was vs Jax St
Auburn RB Peyton Barber has been the bell cow. Guy has put the team on his back and finds yards despite loaded box. He just can't do it alone forever
QB Jeremy Johnson can't throw and doesn't run. His inability to force D to respect the pass and his lack of read option "reads" puts more pressure on Barber.
WR Ricardo Louis has finally paired catching balls with his athleticism. He was ESPN's #1 athlete out of HS for a reason. He is strong, quick and top end speed. Runs quality sweep plays and downfield threat, if a QB could take advantage he is a scary matchup
WR Duke Williams has been noticeably absent. He had conduct issues earlier and so it is hard to say that the pre season All American is poised for a down year or ready to breakout
General Offense Outlook
It all depends on Jeremy Johnson. Auburn likely tries to put him in higher percentage scenarios and ask less of him. If he can be a average to solid QB, the offense can be deadly. Auburn has elite weapons now at WR, RB is a workhorse and OL is better than the casual observer would believe
That being said, Jeremy Johnson sucks so we are screwed.
Key Injuries Concerns Offense-
OT AVery Young - Undisclosed - Probable
Avery Young is AU's best OL and very underrated. 3 Year starter (arguably 4 with med RS yr). He was out the entirety of Jax St game and you could tell. Bad communication/cohesion and clear dropoff at RT + RG where we took our RT. I expect our OL to be significantly improved from last game
quote:
Defense
Injuries have been the determining factor. When Auburn's season starters were out, they shut out Louisville, got absurd amounts of pressure and defended passes. When Lawson, Matthews and Garrett were injured, our defense fell apart.
DT Monty Adams + Russell AU has no depth at DT, it actually is scary. Adams has been elite 1st RD caliber so for this year. He has beaten double teams, fought through traps and still put up solid stats. This has opened up for Dontavius Russell who has a few sacks/TFL. Russell got banged up vs Jax St but he is solid DT who defends the run well and gets some pressure. He is isn't as good as his statline so far while healthy but the two make a great tandem. Behind them we are barren. Like woman with no eggs level bad.
DE Carl Lawson/Lambert - Lawson has been on crutches. When in, our DL is elite. When out we have no outside pass rush. He is to AU what JJ Watt is to Houston, that big of a deal. Lambert is hot garbage. He is our new Jake Holland
LB Frost/McKinzy/Garrett/Williams - Auburn plays 2 LB but regularly substitutes. Against LSU, we likely will run 3 LB. Unfortunately, Garrett is our best LB and has a naggin thigh injury. McKinzy got banged up in Jax St but should be good. Frost is garbage and Williams can't beat him out.
DBs - We rotate in a lot so hard to pick everyone out but our DBs are average to solid. We rotate in two freshman regularly who are good but prone to rookie mistakes. Our DBs aren't easy pickings but there will be lapses in judgment/coverage
Defense Outlook
Auburn's defense statistically may look the same, but it is definitely improved from second half 2014. Injuries are the only thing holding back but those likely won't be completely resolved by LSU. The defense is a boom or bust type defense, regularly blitzes and can make great plays. With young DBs and first year in the system, there are some major scheme breakdowns but overall, they aren't hot garbage.
The JSU QB made some unbelievable throws and the WRs were AMAZING. They may not have been Odell Beckham, but I have never seen no name WRs catch EVERYTHING. Just watch the last play of the JSU AU game, the guy caught overthrown triple coverage ball out of bounds. That happened all game
Key Injuries Concerns Defense-
DE Carl Lawson- Hip Flexor - questionable
Carl Lawson is the best player on AU's team. Louisville scored 0 points for the 2 quarters he played and while he wasn't perfect, his QB hurries, sacks TFL in one half was game changing.
S Tre Matthews - Shoulder - Questionable/Probable
Tre Matthews is the best player in our secondary. His injury vs Louisville combined with Lawson opened the floodgates. He is excellent in run support, great in coverage and likely early entrant into NFL draft regardless of how injury affects season. He is good
LB - Justin Garrett - Quad - Questionable/Probable
Garrett has statistically been our best and most consistent LB. He may not be as highlight worthy as others, but he makes plays, is in the right spot and regularly helps the defense.
DB - Josh Holsey - Knee - Questionable
Holsey has a SR with extensive experience. He doesn't start but rotates in regularly and is a huge difference maker. The injury to Tre Matthews makes Holsey's injury a bigger deal
DT - Dontavius Russell - Ankle - Probable
Russell had 2 sacks against Louisville and while clearly not up to Monty Adams level, Russell is playing at a high level for a RS FR. Run game for Jax St only took off when he was sidelined
quote:
Game Outlook
If AU has some guys return from injury, LSU will need Brandon Harris to be more than token QB. The AU DL with Carl Lawson have been elite minus Lambert. The LBs, especially Cass McKinzy are better against more pro style run games like LSU. Fournette will get his yards, but he will need Harris to maek some more throws/ReadOption plays than he did vs MSU.
Offensively, it is hard to say what Auburn will do. If Johnson is bad, it is easy to see 14-17 points being our ceiling. If he is average to good, Auburn could pile on because they have that level of talent.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:43 am to tigerclaw10
JJ can come alive and that makes me nervous, but I think crowd noise can play a big role in this game. The crowd needs to disrupt their tempo and any rhythm he may find.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:44 am to timm6971463
quote:
Antimiles= antirecuiting which = antiLSU most of you idiots call your self fans, fans help their team every where they can .
How do you help the team?
Not loving every move CLM makes is anti miles? some of you are just total dumbasses
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:44 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
They have lots of talent (more than miss at)
They have good coaching
They are embarrassed after last week
They were overlooking Jacksonville St.
We will play vs a challenged football team.
It's a rivalry game.
-They've had lots of talent every year we've faced them recently
-More like lucky bunch of bastards who can't develop QBs, and DCs who are overrated
-They were embarrassed the week before, and still played like shite
-What does that even mean? They've played bad against a bad Louisville team that lost to Houston, and they almost lost against a got damn FCS. Jack St f**ked themselves over so bad late in that game, and the refs sat right there and didn't call blatant holding on Johnson's 1st TD pass. They've been lucky as shite to have 2 wins.
-LSU has beaten Auburn 35-21 (would have been by more, but we went conservative in like the early 3rd), 45-10 (used 1st and 2nd string), and 31-10 (one week after losing to UF with true sophomore Jefferson at the helm), the last three home games.
quote:
I don't know why our fans are so quick to chalk this game up as an easy win.
Unless Johnson gets a blessing from God, he is still going to suck at QB. That defense struggled with a true freshman QB that couldn't even pass, getting his first start. He had only two returning starters on his OL, and when Quick got hurt at WR, he only had freshman WRs to throw to. That defense struggled with an FCS team all game long. I don't care if you are missing four starters, it's a got damn FCS team! That OL they have is mediocre at best. Peyton Barber is nothing but a tough runner and neither of the other two RBs have done anything of note (one nursing an injury).
Honestly, at the very least, we tie with them in every category. We outright beat them in RB, WR/TE, OL, LB, and DB. Plus the game is at home, now officially THE home opener.
If we don't play around and let Harris pass from start to at least the beginning of the fourth, the game should be won fairly easily.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:44 am to SamuelClemens
quote:
JJ will throw 2 INTs to LSU DBs
Gus will not put him in a position to throw multiple interceptions, if an interception at all.
Auburn will try and assert itself by running downhill (good luck with that) and using short passes (dink left, dink right) to get the ball out of JJ's hand quickly without having him think too much.
Auburn has to run the ball if they plan to have any success, so expect a lot of pre-snap "window dressing" and movement to try and find ways to run the ball on LSU.
Again, Gus knows his only hope this weekend is to have success running the ball!
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:45 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
Yea, just like the last time Auburn played in Death Valley.
There was a time in that game where it wasn't so clear cut LSU would win by 14. That onside kick call was close and while probably correctly called, if AU had recovered that would have been a different game.
LSU likely would have won regardless, but AU probably would have had an opportunity to tie it/ garbage TD brings it to 7
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:47 am to GenesChin
LSU won't see the same team Jax St.did.I don't expect AU to test LSU's secondary as much as they did last week.
This post was edited on 9/15/15 at 9:53 am
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:47 am to Tigerinthehollow
quote:
they don't have a qb....and their defense is bad. Think reverse situation of last year, early in the season. Does Auburn have talent? Of course. Did LSU have talent last year? Of course. Auburn has NO QB...and they have injuries on a defense that isn't that good to begin with. I'll stand by what I said. If LSU plays a solid game, they beat Auburn handily. Only way Auburn stays in the game is if LSU commits costly penalties or turnovers.
You can never count out a team in the SEC, unless it's Vandy. Back in 2013, I seem to recall a Mettenberger-led Tiger team losing to a much less talented Ole Miss squad that was decimated by injuries. This game could go either way. I think that the coaches will have to be at least a bit more creative with the play calling this week. If we get a lead, we need to go for the jugular. If we let them hang around until the 4th quarter, I'll start to get nervous. Their hurry up offense could tire our defense out, so we need to keep them from getting into a groove. If we can do that, I like our chances.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:49 am to LouisianaLonghorn
quote:
You can never count out a team in the SEC, unless it's Vandy. Back in 2013, I seem to recall a Mettenberger-led Tiger team losing to a much less talented Ole Miss squad that was decimated by injuries. This game could go either way. I think that the coaches will have to be at least a bit more creative with the play calling this week. If we get a lead, we need to go for the jugular. If we let them hang around until the 4th quarter, I'll start to get nervous. Their hurry up offense could tire our defense out, so we need to keep them from getting into a groove. If we can do that, I like our chances.
Completely agree!!!
Posted on 9/15/15 at 9:53 am to Tigerinthehollow
quote:
Tigerinthehollow
Posted on 9/15/15 at 10:03 am to Tigerinthehollow
quote:
You are trying to build an argument based upon the name Auburn, and the perceived talent. If you have watched them play, well...there is no talking to people like you.
You have got to be kitten me. You're comparing a true freshman in Harris who made his first ever career start to Johnson a junior who has been in the system for 2 1/2 years?
Has he impressed? No
Is the LSU coaching staff and players going to take him lightly? No
Posted on 9/15/15 at 10:05 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
My thoughts are ...
They have lots of talent (more than miss at)
They have good coaching
They are embarrassed after last week
They were overlooking Jacksonville St.
We will play vs a challenged football team.
It's a rivalry game.
I don't know why our fans are so quick to chalk this game up as an easy win.
Good post. My sentiments exactly.
AU overlooked Jax... may have been trying to be as vanilla as possible to not give LSU much to look at... and it almost bit them in the arse.
And LSU fans-- more than almost any other fan base-- should appreciate that struggling against an inferior opponent doesn't mean you're going to going to lose the following week.
I personally have no idea what to expect with this game. If LSU shows some creativity on offense and has a few tricks up their sleeves like the 1st half of Ms.St. (and executes well!!!!) they might be able to roll. If they try to play straight up on offense and limit big plays on defense like they did in the 2nd half, it will likely be a close game.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 10:11 am to Datbayoubengal
quote:
LSU has beaten Auburn 35-21 (would have been by more, but we went conservative in like the early 3rd),
Auburn played great in the second half...they weren't too good before the second half and then went off the rest of the year
quote:
45-10 (used 1st and 2nd string),
Is this LSU team as good as that one? I sure hope so
quote:
They've been lucky as shite to have 2 wins.
you have convinced me...I am officially overlooking them...hell I am overlooking every game until bama now
Posted on 9/15/15 at 10:15 am to Datbayoubengal
quote:
If we don't play around and let Harris pass from start to at least the beginning of the fourth, the game should be won fairly easily.
IF....IF......IF....
And here we go...Mr. know it all....
You sure missed on that MSU prediction............
This post was edited on 9/15/15 at 10:17 am
Posted on 9/15/15 at 10:28 am to epbart
quote:
Good post. My sentiments exactly.
AU overlooked Jax... may have been trying to be as vanilla as possible to not give LSU much to look at... and it almost bit them in the arse.
And LSU fans-- more than almost any other fan base-- should appreciate that struggling against an inferior opponent doesn't mean you're going to going to lose the following week.
I personally have no idea what to expect with this game. If LSU shows some creativity on offense and has a few tricks up their sleeves like the 1st half of Ms.St. (and executes well!!!!) they might be able to roll. If they try to play straight up on offense and limit big plays on defense like they did in the 2nd half, it will likely be a close game.
This +1000000000000000000
Posted on 9/15/15 at 10:37 am to fan251
I don't understand why LSU fans are underestimating Gus!!! He will gameplan around JJ's inefficiencies by getting the ball out of his hands as quick as possible, try to run the ball (he has to establish the run or it's going to be a long day), and make LSU defend sideline to sideline.....
History has shown that if this offense can get its run game going, this gameplan can (doesn't mean it will) work against LSU.......similarly to Moo State.....
We have to force Gus and the Auburn offense to be one-dimensional and to try to make plays through the air............
History has shown that if this offense can get its run game going, this gameplan can (doesn't mean it will) work against LSU.......similarly to Moo State.....
We have to force Gus and the Auburn offense to be one-dimensional and to try to make plays through the air............
This post was edited on 9/15/15 at 10:40 am
Posted on 9/15/15 at 10:38 am to dukke v
quote:
dukke v
quote:
You sure missed on that MSU prediction............
oh the irony here!
LMAO
You are the one before the season saying Auburn was a loss because you already knew that Auburn was going to have a great offense BECAUSE of JJ...despite the fact they returned only 4 offensive starters. You are the one that couldn't correctly pick the LSU outcome correctly if they had a bye week.
He wasn't wrong about the Miss State game. The difference in talent level was so obvious at the game that a blind person could see it. What he didn't predict was the Miles melt down.
Auburn is garbage. I started looking at all the people in this thread sucking Auburn's dick....then it dawned on me...these, for the most part, are the same individuals who slam LSU at every situation possible.
Oh, and you are a pos Dukke. I am right about LSU probably at a rate of about 10-1 more than you are. Also, FYI, I think Miles did a pathetic job in the second half against MSU, and if he continues to do so, should find his arse out of a job. I'm not some blind LSU homer. I call it as I see it. I see this LSU team as the most talented team in the SEC. Let's see what Miles can do with it. I expect LSU to beat the shite out of an overrated, non qbing auburn team. It's not that JJ has made bad throws, it's that he has made terrible decisions. I've seen that happen, unfortunately, far too often with our own JJ at QB. Again, LSU beats Auburn handily, barring a Miles melt down again, or a 3 turnover game.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 10:44 am to fan251
quote:
I don't understand why LSU fans are underestimating Gus!!! He will gameplan around JJ's inefficiencies by getting the ball out of his hands as quick as possible, try to run the ball (he has to establish the run or it's going to be a long day), and make LSU defend sideline to sideline.....
Just like he did against Jack State after JJ was atrocious against a poor Louisville team.
quote:
History has shown that if this offense can get its run game going, this gameplan can (doesn't mean it will) work against LSU.......similarly to Moo State.....
HISTORY? LMAO good god
quote:
We have to force Gus and the Auburn offense to be one-dimensional and to try to make plays through the air............
God damn.....we have an Einstein on our hands folks. LMAO. Did it ever dawn on you that they can't pass, and that LSU will key the run....and when they can't run, then that interception machine will be throwing up gifts. No, I doubt it did.
Now go ahead, tell me I know nothing...tell me how stupid I am, how great auburn can be...etc. LMAO. These fkn kids these days (and old time losers like duke).....blows my mind.
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