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re: Official Erin Energy (ERN) thread
Posted on 6/16/15 at 9:27 am to Omada
Posted on 6/16/15 at 9:27 am to Omada
Not understanding why a production well will cost more than exploratory.. not having to core, not having to have more extensive logging runs.. still have to run casing and do sand control.. still going to set a tree on both.. I don't get it.. please explain. I'm just a dumb service hand engineer..
Posted on 6/16/15 at 9:32 am to MSU4ever
quote:
Thanks for the response, that's what I'm thinking. I set a price alert at 4 as well and if it drops below I'll watch closely
well...it looks like it may hit 4 a lot quicker than i thought. may have to set a new alert for 3
This post was edited on 6/16/15 at 9:39 am
Posted on 6/16/15 at 9:38 am to Choctaw
Damn it's dropping like a rock. I guess it's kind of good for us on the sidelines wanting to get in but at the same time something has to be making it go down. Now just gotta figure out when we think it might start the climb back up
Posted on 6/16/15 at 9:40 am to MSU4ever
quote:
Damn it's dropping like a rock. I guess it's kind of good for us on the sidelines wanting to get in but at the same time something has to be making it go down. Now just gotta figure out when we think it might start the climb back up
it's a called a pump and DUMP for a reason......
Posted on 6/16/15 at 9:46 am to whodatigahbait
I completely agree and I missed the first real climb for profit that's why I've just been watching.
Posted on 6/16/15 at 9:48 am to whodatigahbait
Pump and Dumps don't span over months. the pump happens over a few days....couple of weeks at the most
Posted on 6/16/15 at 9:56 am to Choctaw
quote:
Pump and Dumps don't span over months. the pump happens over a few days....couple of weeks at the most
keep telling yourself that as its down another 20% today....
Posted on 6/16/15 at 9:57 am to whodatigahbait
quote:
keep telling yourself that as its down another 20% today....
still doesn't mean its a pump and dump
Posted on 6/16/15 at 10:04 am to b-rab2
I'm not even an engineer or in the oil industry, so you know more than me. Heath told me the exploratory well would be cheaper than the production well, so I have assumed that is correct. Of course, I might have gotten the statement turned around, as well.
I came up with the $100 million number for a production well through Wikipedia for an offshore rig. The source isn't good, I know, but if ERN is going to have a partner bear most or all of the cost, then I won't be as concerned about the price tag. But as far as I can tell, ERN won't have enough cash flow within a year to get the Miocene online alone, even if my estimated costs are twice the actual. If anyone can show me otherwise, about cash flow or well costs, then I would love to know. It would make this company that much easier to understand.
I came up with the $100 million number for a production well through Wikipedia for an offshore rig. The source isn't good, I know, but if ERN is going to have a partner bear most or all of the cost, then I won't be as concerned about the price tag. But as far as I can tell, ERN won't have enough cash flow within a year to get the Miocene online alone, even if my estimated costs are twice the actual. If anyone can show me otherwise, about cash flow or well costs, then I would love to know. It would make this company that much easier to understand.
Posted on 6/16/15 at 10:26 am to Choctaw
How is this not a pump and dump? Seems to me there are even some pumpers in this thread...I wonder how many other forums they visit, preying on clueless investors
Posted on 6/16/15 at 10:32 am to The Boob
Looks to me like its just the wires hitting more mainstream sites about the "investigation" by Saul Goodman and the rest of the dollar general strip mall lawyers.
Posted on 6/16/15 at 10:35 am to The Boob
ask Iowa Golfer.
this thread was started a month ago. ERN started taking off back in February
i've seen stocks drop 50% in one day on bad news. it happens. has nothing to do with it being a pump and dump.
this thread was started a month ago. ERN started taking off back in February
i've seen stocks drop 50% in one day on bad news. it happens. has nothing to do with it being a pump and dump.
This post was edited on 6/16/15 at 10:40 am
Posted on 6/16/15 at 10:35 am to The Boob
Investing in an exploration company run by Nigerians, drilling offshore Nigeria is always a good idea. Hell, those guys have princes that sometimes will pay you $1MM to help them get $10MM out of a bank account. That being said, I'm shocked ERN is tanking.
Posted on 6/16/15 at 10:40 am to cwill
It seems to be hovering right around 4 now, think it goes any lower?
Posted on 6/16/15 at 11:00 am to The Boob
Whenever I have seen a pump and dump, I have also seen an advertising campaign. That has always been with OTC stocks though, so I don't know as well what it would look like for stocks trading on the AMEX, NASDAQ, etc. Either way, I have avoided those stocks. There are obviously pumpers in stock message boards, such as Ihub and Yahoo Finance, but I don't believe they have much power to sway stock prices unless they have considerable followers. rickdplumr on Yahoo Finance and Stock Twits I would call a pumper, though I would also say he is overly emotional for trading or investing. Trading and investing requires one to not act on emotions and to be disciplined to follow one's rule book. The rick fellow is going to lose money in the stock market long term, though he may get lucky occasionally. Anyway, I have seen no mention of CAK/ERN on any of the investing or trading subreddits, such as wallstreetbets. I figure if this was a pump and dump, then pumpers would go to those boards so their posts are seen by a larger audience.
I actually hate pumpers. Dumpers too. They're irrational, emotional, and they take up space in what could be informative discussions about a company and its stock. Companies don't need cheerleaders (and definitely not bashers), they need informed shareholders. The uninformed and undisciplined will bail at the first sign of trouble, and that is partly the cause of this price drop (along with heavy shorting and perhaps an overoptimistic price increase in the first place).
Of course, with my arrival here coinciding with the continued price decline, along with a lack of a post history (which will change with time), I don't blame you or anyone else for thinking that I am a pumper. I rightfully have to prove myself not to be one. I will say that I invested in this company for fundamental reasons. I think the financial statements look bad, but that'll change in time. But 12 barrels of recoverable oil per share in just the Miocene formation got my attention, since Chevron has 6-7 barrels a share. Sure, they'll need help, as I've said, but based on the information I have, I think it will pay off.
I actually hate pumpers. Dumpers too. They're irrational, emotional, and they take up space in what could be informative discussions about a company and its stock. Companies don't need cheerleaders (and definitely not bashers), they need informed shareholders. The uninformed and undisciplined will bail at the first sign of trouble, and that is partly the cause of this price drop (along with heavy shorting and perhaps an overoptimistic price increase in the first place).
Of course, with my arrival here coinciding with the continued price decline, along with a lack of a post history (which will change with time), I don't blame you or anyone else for thinking that I am a pumper. I rightfully have to prove myself not to be one. I will say that I invested in this company for fundamental reasons. I think the financial statements look bad, but that'll change in time. But 12 barrels of recoverable oil per share in just the Miocene formation got my attention, since Chevron has 6-7 barrels a share. Sure, they'll need help, as I've said, but based on the information I have, I think it will pay off.
Posted on 6/16/15 at 11:08 am to Omada
Meh. I'm pumping I guess. Whatever. The thread was actually started in part a long time ago. Two year's ago IIRC.
Anyway, I found this response by ERN mostly laffy:
"We believe our recent stock price decline may be due in part to Erin Energy Corporation inadvertently being excluded from the Russell Indexes reconstitution. An initial list of company additions was issued by Russell on Jun. 12 and ERN was excluded. We believe the company meets the criteria for inclusion. We are in contact with Russell and hope to be included in their updated list of companies on Jun. 19 and the final list of companies on Jun. 26."
I tend to find most corporate things laffy, so no surprise to me that they would come up with something like this.
Anyway, I found this response by ERN mostly laffy:
"We believe our recent stock price decline may be due in part to Erin Energy Corporation inadvertently being excluded from the Russell Indexes reconstitution. An initial list of company additions was issued by Russell on Jun. 12 and ERN was excluded. We believe the company meets the criteria for inclusion. We are in contact with Russell and hope to be included in their updated list of companies on Jun. 19 and the final list of companies on Jun. 26."
I tend to find most corporate things laffy, so no surprise to me that they would come up with something like this.
Posted on 6/16/15 at 11:49 am to Iowa Golfer
I don't really consider anyone in this thread to be a pumper, IG, though I may have a different definition of a pumper in my mind than in everyone else's. In my mind, a pumper tries to cheer on the stock and convince people to invest based on emotions and promises of profit, usually without mentioning the level of risk. You and Gene have both stated that this does have a high level of profit, but you also mention the risks and point out fundamental issues for the company, both good and bad. Pumpers wouldn't want to mention bad news or information for fear of doubt setting in. But I can't guarantee what anyone on the internet may be. For all anyone knows, I could be a dinosaur wishing humans would stop inconsiderately digging up the graves of my ancestors and putting their skeletons on display.
Posted on 6/16/15 at 12:02 pm to Omada
I have always maintained that ~$7-8 was the price target if things were going well in all my posts. Due to the nature of their business and oil prices I didn't see anything past $10 if things really did well without major changes.
Fact is, right now things aren't going well as second well production may be late by the already delayed time schedule, they will now have cash flow concerns and have not announced any partnership to defray costs.
There is still potential and profit, just booming success is unlikely in next year
Fact is, right now things aren't going well as second well production may be late by the already delayed time schedule, they will now have cash flow concerns and have not announced any partnership to defray costs.
There is still potential and profit, just booming success is unlikely in next year
Posted on 6/16/15 at 12:27 pm to GenesChin
This is part of the reason I chose to essentially close out my position. I was happy with $7.75-8, I didn't want to risk a drop below that and the panic that would ensure
Additionally, if there is legit oil and assets ERN controls, dropping the price of the stock makes ERN an attractive buyout candidate. No one in their right mind would purchase ERN at $7+/share with the premium over share price + huge acquisition costs that come with.
ERN being sold for say $5/share is highly lucrative to the major shareholders, PIC + Lawal + ERN management whose cost basis is extremely low. For example, if PIC were to sell, they would flood the market and ERN would crash. PIC would have a pretty awesome profit if sold for $5
Additionally, if there is legit oil and assets ERN controls, dropping the price of the stock makes ERN an attractive buyout candidate. No one in their right mind would purchase ERN at $7+/share with the premium over share price + huge acquisition costs that come with.
ERN being sold for say $5/share is highly lucrative to the major shareholders, PIC + Lawal + ERN management whose cost basis is extremely low. For example, if PIC were to sell, they would flood the market and ERN would crash. PIC would have a pretty awesome profit if sold for $5
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