Politico: Governor Scott Walker opens lead over Democrat in Wisconsin

quote:

---

Gov. Scott Walker now leads by 5 points among likely voters in Wisconsin, according to a Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday, an 8-point swing in the Republican’s favor since August, when challenger Mary Burke led by 3 points.

Walker is ahead of Democrat Mary Burke 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, the first time this year that the race has been outside the margin of error in the closely-watched survey.

It is a reflection of a palpable feeling on the ground that the race has shifted in Walker’s direction since the summer. It is likely to stay tight because Wisconsin is so polarized, but the potential 2016 presidential contender has become a clear, if slight, favorite.

Walker is now ahead among independents by 13 points, 53 percent to 40 percent. He was up less than half that margin in the two previous surveys.

“This still qualifies as a very close race,” said poll director Charles Franklin during a one-hour event to unveil the numbers.

Among the broader sample of registered voters, Walker was up 1 point, 46 percent to 45 percent, which is within the margin of error.

The live-caller poll of 801 registered voters and 585 likely voters was in the field Sept. 25-28. The likely voter number has a 4.1 percent margin of error. Thirty percent of the sample was reached by cell phone.

There is a major gender gap among likely voters, and it favors the Republican. Walker is up 28 points among men (62 percent to 34 percent) and Burke leads among women by 14 points (54 percent to 40 percent).

Walker’s standing has improved in non-urban parts of the state since the summer. He is up by 9 points (52-43), for example, in the GOP-leaning Green Bay market.

---