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WWYD as Wisconsin Coach?
Posted on 9/4/14 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 1:54 pm
Interesting question I was talking over with a friend. Let's say you were Wisconsin's coach in the LSU game. 4th and 12 from your own 8, 1:35 left, 3 timeouts, and down 4. Rank these 3 options in terms of giving your team the best shot at winning.
a) go for it
b) punt
c) kneel the ball
I say A,C,B. Obviously going for it is better than kneeling it. My reason for including kneeling is to represent whether you should still go for it if there was literally a 0% chance of converting. I say yes.
If you are down 4 with 3 timeouts and 1:30 left, I think you have a statistically better chance of winning if the other team has the ball on your 10 than around midfield.
Obviously, going for it is an infinitely better option than kneeling it. I'm just illustrating that there was NOTHING gained by punting the ball.
a) go for it
b) punt
c) kneel the ball
I say A,C,B. Obviously going for it is better than kneeling it. My reason for including kneeling is to represent whether you should still go for it if there was literally a 0% chance of converting. I say yes.
If you are down 4 with 3 timeouts and 1:30 left, I think you have a statistically better chance of winning if the other team has the ball on your 10 than around midfield.
Obviously, going for it is an infinitely better option than kneeling it. I'm just illustrating that there was NOTHING gained by punting the ball.
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 1:55 pm
36
Posted on 9/4/14 at 1:56 pm to TheSexecutioner
B) punt
Posted on 9/4/14 at 1:58 pm to schexyoung
why? what logic is there to that?
Posted on 9/4/14 at 1:59 pm to TheSexecutioner
A, easily.
You have to get a stop regardless, and if we kicked a field goal it would have still been a one possession game.
You have to get a stop regardless, and if we kicked a field goal it would have still been a one possession game.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:00 pm to TheSexecutioner
If they had any kind of passing attack, I'd say go for it and I think they would have under them circumstances. But, they didn't, that'd why they punted.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:01 pm to TheSexecutioner
Punt
Why not try to get a turnover or with all 3 timeouts just get a quick stop.
They were shut down throwing in the 4th Q, Anderson knew they weren't getting it through the air on 4th and long, so next best choice is a punt and stop or turnover
Why not try to get a turnover or with all 3 timeouts just get a quick stop.
They were shut down throwing in the 4th Q, Anderson knew they weren't getting it through the air on 4th and long, so next best choice is a punt and stop or turnover
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:01 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
there was NOTHING gained by punting the ball
40-50 yards of field position. Maybe they can force a turnover.
That said, I probably would have gone for it at that point.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:02 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
c) kneel the ball
Not even an option...if you are going to kneel, you might as well just go for it. IF you don't get it...same effect.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:04 pm to TheSexecutioner
d) find someone other than Tanner McEvoy to be my QB
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:05 pm to WilliamTaylor21
quote:
Punt
Why not try to get a turnover or with all 3 timeouts just get a quick stop.
They were shut down throwing in the 4th Q, Anderson knew they weren't getting it through the air on 4th and long, so next best choice is a punt and stop or turnover
So what happens when you get a stop? Bring out Peyton Manning and drive 90 yards? You still are going to need a 3 and out and a touchdown drive regardless of how bad your quarterback sucks. I'd take my chances stopping LSU from the 10(easiest place on field for a 3 and out since you only have to defend 20 yards of field) and then recieving a kickoff rather than a punt that likely pins Wisconsin inside your own 15.
Would you not?
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:05 pm to TheSexecutioner
You mean 5 days after the game?
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:05 pm to spslayto
quote:
Not even an option...if you are going to kneel, you might as well just go for it. IF you don't get it...same effect.
quote:
Obviously going for it is better than kneeling it. My reason for including kneeling is to represent whether you should still go for it if there was literally a 0% chance of converting.
Can you read?
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:07 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Interesting question I was talking over with a friend. Let's say you were Wisconsin's coach in the LSU game. 4th and 12 from your own 8, 1:35 left, 3 timeouts, and down 4. Rank these 3 options in terms of giving your team the best shot at winning.
a) go for it
b) punt
c) kneel the ball
Given what was actually happening in the game at that point, the call is to punt and hope for a turn over or a three and out and a run back.
Had they failed to get the first and given the ball to LSU inside the 10, we'd have run Hilliard over their decimated DL and gone up 10 and the game would have been over.
They lost that game long before then, but that was the best of a series of bad choices by that point.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:08 pm to TheSexecutioner
With their qb & receivers vs LSU's secondary, punt. You have the chance for a turnover on the kick, you have 3 timeouts left, if you get a quick stop or even hold LSU to a fg, you would still possibly have a few ticks left on the clock. Kneeling it at your own 8, the way Hillard was gouging your O-line, puts the game out if reach with a TD. Punt is the only option.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:09 pm to GeauxTigerTM
quote:
Had they failed to get the first and given the ball to LSU inside the 10, we'd have run Hilliard over their decimated DL and gone up 10 and the game would have been over.
Which is much different than punting and then us giving the ball to Hilliard to run over their decimated DL to get a first down and run out the clock.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:10 pm to TIGERFANZZ
quote:
You have the chance for a turnover on the kick
Finally something relevant. While I agree this would be huge, It's very low percentage when LSU is gonna be playing very very conservatively. A much better chance at just converting the first down, even though that is also very unlikely.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:11 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Can you read?
I can read just fine. There is always a chance you can pick up the first down--it's never 0%--even running the ball or doing a screen pass. If you don't get it--same effect as kneeling. The only two viable options are go for it or punt. Any coach in America--I don't care the league--that kneels it would be questioned endlessly for that decision.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:11 pm to TheSexecutioner
D) Run out the back of the end zone for a safety, then try an onside kick on the ensuing free kick.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:13 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
c) kneel the ball
The frick?
1) Punt
2) Go for it
3) Punt
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:13 pm to TheSexecutioner
Punt. It was no secret that Miles was going to run the ball 3 straight plays and punt if they couldn't get a 1st. There was no threat of a pass.
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