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re: Google Unveils Self-Driving Cars

Posted on 5/28/14 at 5:08 pm to
Posted by MrSmith
Member since Sep 2009
8311 posts
Posted on 5/28/14 at 5:08 pm to
Just an emergency stop button I believe.
Posted by em745
Member since Nov 2013
138 posts
Posted on 5/28/14 at 5:50 pm to
quote:

you know planes are controlled mostly by computer?

Yep, "MOSTLY."

I've been watching "Air Crash Investigation" long enough to know that 99% of the time, the first thing pilots do when some unforeseen problem comes up is disconnect the autopilot and take manual control of the plane.

Even the ultra-modern, ultra-computerized A380 has flesh-and-blood pilots at the helm.

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A million incident-free miles makes a pretty strong case that they are better than most drivers.

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You mean, like, on the road with thousands of other cars? That "controlled" environment?

And yet...

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But there is no way they are ready to turn these things loose in bad weather yet.

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25 mph

^^^ Not exactly real-world conditions.

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Thankfully, the cars don't run on Windows 98.

Right... Because Me, XP, Vista, 7, 8... have all been so bug free.

Even military software controls (hard to get more "stringent" than mil-spec!) aren't immune to bugs. There have been many incidents where bugs in a modern fighter's FLCS has led to the loss of the plane.

quote:

You talk about desktop software as if it is written to the same guidelines as software that is responsible for the safety of human beings. Planes fly themselves every day, you know.

Even an established avionics powerhouse like Garmin issues regular software updates and bug fixes for its EFIS and GPS/NAV/COMM units.

How many airline disasters have been linked to malfunctioning software or "sensors?"

quote:

You and I differ greatly in how much credit we give human drivers.

And you and I differ greatly in how much credit we give computers (or automation in general).
Posted by TigerBait1127
Houston
Member since Jun 2005
47336 posts
Posted on 5/28/14 at 5:56 pm to
quote:

25 mph


^^^ Not exactly real-world conditions. 


25 mph is absolutely practical for in city driving and as a taxi service, especially as a prototype

Also, the Lexus and Toyota's that are 700,000+ miles accident free go well over that speed


quote:

How many airline disasters have been linked to malfunctioning software or "sensors?"



I bet that failure rate of the software is lower than humans. The big issue has actually been how reliable the software has been. Pilots aren't as skilled outside of the autopilot

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Will Google collect real-time data on individual workers and/or police directing traffic? Will the radar's back-end (software) be "smart" enough to accurately read hand signals 100% of the time?



yes. Hell, they already do this.

Also, I'm not sure why you think it operate 100% perfectly.


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BIs it not impressive that they already drive better than 99% of the people on the road?

But that's not anywhere near the case.





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These things only perform "well" within sterile/controlled parameters and testing environments... and as long as those myriad "sensors" remain functioning and unobstructed (which is why I brought up the winter storm scenario).



or the actual road where they've been driving. They're apparently incredibly accurate at it. Once again, you keep forgetting that this isn't supposed to be a finished project yet

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Often, the worst part of driving is other drivers and pedestrians, but Google says, "What looks chaotic and random on a city street to the human eye is actually fairly predictable to a computer." The cars now model things like the likeliness of a car running a red light, and they can detect cyclists, read their hand signals, and predict their movement. Google's cars have also learned to not run down pedestrians and cyclists at crosswalks, and they can even track objects behind them.




quote:

And you and I differ greatly in how much credit we give computers (or automation in general).



quote:

Google notes that over 30,000 people die in traffic accidents in the US every year. A self-driving car will never get tired, distracted, or drunk, and it can see farther than its human counterparts, see at night, and see in 360 degrees. This is one of the rare projects that could change the world, and Google says it's "optimistic" that a self-driving car is an achievable goal.


but keep comparing it to windows. You're assuming that google doesn't have the a redundancy of controls. They have radar sensors, roof sensors, camera sensors, etc. For some reason, you believe that they have to have a 0% failure rate. Their record will be less than perfect, but it will be perfectly acceptable.
This post was edited on 5/28/14 at 6:26 pm
Posted by em745
Member since Nov 2013
138 posts
Posted on 5/28/14 at 8:43 pm to
quote:

25 mph is absolutely practical for in city driving and as a taxi service



quote:

Also, the Lexus and Toyota's that are 700,000+ miles accident free go well over that speed

Again, all under very controlled circumstances.

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yes. Hell, they already do this.

Really now? They can accurately interpret a policeman's hand signals and other gesticulations (which can get quick and ambiguous depending on the situation)? Are they able to "see" who the signals are meant for?

Will these sensors be able to see/interpret a traffic wand at night, amongst a background of headlights, flashing emergency lights, and street lights? What if it's a regular joe (w/o a wand) doing the traffic control until the cops arrive?

We're not talking about the simple act of a cyclist signaling a left or right turn here.

quote:

quote:

How many airline disasters have been linked to malfunctioning software or "sensors?"

I bet that failure rate of the software is lower than humans.

Let's combine software failure with sensor, electronic and mechanical failures and see how they compare then.

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The big issue has actually been how reliable the software has been.

The flip-side argument to all this is that I can come up with a ~dozen cases where an airline disaster was averted because of the improvised actions of a brilliant flight crew.

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Pilots aren't as skilled outside of the autopilot.



I have a really hard time accepting the notion of an autopilot being able to successfully pull off a "Sullenberger" all by itself.

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A self-driving car will never get tired, distracted

They're also incapable of adapting to unforeseen (i.e. not programmed) situations, and on-the-fly problem solving.

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or drunk

Much tougher DUI laws would go a longer way in eliminating DUI related fatalities.

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and it can see farther than its human counterparts, see at night, and see in 360 degrees.

I see they left bad weather out of the equation... again.

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but keep comparing it to windows.

Are Micro$oft products the only ones that are buggy?

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They have radar sensors, roof sensors, camera sensors, etc.

All of which are susceptible to software glitches, hardware malfunctions, blockages from snow, ice, mud... not to mention regular ol' road damage from flying rocks.

Posted by Sl4m
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2012
3717 posts
Posted on 5/28/14 at 8:47 pm to
Just know that somewhere there's a cop that can't wait to gve someone a DWI for being the operator of this motor vehicle while intoxicated.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28712 posts
Posted on 5/28/14 at 11:06 pm to
quote:

Right... Because Me, XP, Vista, 7, 8... have all been so bug free.
The cars don't run Windows at all. The way that consumer software is written vs. mission-critical software is so profoundly different that you can't really compare the two. The vast majority of Windows issues are due to poorly-written 3rd party software and drivers, and also due to the fact that the OS has to be open to allow for this vast array of software to work, and to do so on an unlimited variety of hardware configurations. When the exact hardware and software configuration is known, probably north of 90% of bugs can be eliminated. Another 90% of the remaining bugs can be eliminated by extremely strict programming guidelines. For consumer software, time is of the essence, so if it kinda works, it ships. There are no checks and double and quadruple checks over each and every path the code may take. That last 1% of bugs can then at the very least be caught and handled, if not eliminated entirely through redundancy in both hardware and software.

It's just a totally different set of requirements and goals, and that's why most of the software you use is buggy.

quote:

Even military software controls (hard to get more "stringent" than mil-spec!) aren't immune to bugs. There have been many incidents where bugs in a modern fighter's FLCS has led to the loss of the plane.
Mil-spec? You mean the specs that get passed on to the lowest bidder?

And when was the last incident? How much has been learned since then? How much more can go wrong flying vs. driving?

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Even an established avionics powerhouse like Garmin issues regular software updates and bug fixes for its EFIS and GPS/NAV/COMM units.
Link to these bug fix change logs? Also link to the software safety requirements for such systems?
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How many airline disasters have been linked to malfunctioning software or "sensors?"
You tell me.

I would venture a guess that it's a lot fewer than are due to human error or mechanical failure.

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And you and I differ greatly in how much credit we give computers (or automation in general).

I see that.

Computers are better than humans at one thing: doing the same thing, over and over, exactly as instructed. Driving is very "computable". Keep it between the lines. Do what the sign says. Don't break the rules. Keep your eyes on the fricking road.

We let computers reshape our fricking eyeballs.

Do you look both ways before crossing any railroad tracks, or do you trust that the ding-dings are going to work every time? Or that the traffic lights will never give green both ways at the same time?

How many automated systems do we trust our lives to every day? A lot. And when an automated system kills someone (even if it's the person's fault), it makes big news because it's so rare. People die due to human error constantly.

Some things just beg to be automated. Driving is one of those things.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28712 posts
Posted on 5/28/14 at 11:34 pm to
quote:

They're also incapable of adapting to unforeseen (i.e. not programmed) situations, and on-the-fly problem solving.
They are capable of solving many unforeseen problems already, and only getting better.

Plus, once one car "solves" a problem, the others can all learn from that relatively quickly and will be better able to handle similar situations. The unforeseen will then be foreseen by them all.

Additionally, if a bug is ever uncovered once these reach production, it can be fixed. You can't fix 200 million buggy human drivers, and those frickers are killing people left and right.

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All of which are susceptible to software glitches, hardware malfunctions, blockages from snow, ice, mud... not to mention regular ol' road damage from flying rocks.
Thankfully, there is a very simple and obvious solution to this problem: failsafe. The car simply won't do something unless everything is 100% functional and it is 100% sure that it is safe. And yes, "continuing to drive" counts as "doing something". A simple failsafe action would be to turn the flashers on, slow down, pull over and stop.

If the camera that sees the road can't see the road, it says "I can't see... failsafe!". If the LIDAR that sees everything can't see anymore, it says "I can't see... failsafe!". If the sensors that check those two aren't sure that they are working right, those sensors say "failsafe!". If the sensors say they work, and the sensor sensors say they work, and the computer knows the data is trustworthy, but it can't decide what to do.. "failsafe!"

It's hard to fail safely while flying. It's relatively easier to do so while driving.

quote:

Much tougher DUI laws would go a longer way in eliminating DUI related fatalities.

What? Really? Tougher DUI laws would do more to eliminate DUI fatalities than would replacing humans with computers that can't get drunk?

I see now that I'm not going to get much in the way of logic from you.
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