re: Byrd Signing Bigger Than Revis

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Medium pass-depth coverage

Last season, Buffalo (Byrd's 2013 team) ranked third in the league in Total QBR allowed on medium-depth passes (defined as aerials thrown 11-19 yards downfield). This was an area where New Orleans did a terrible job, as the Saints' 96.7 Total QBR ranked 29th.

One main reason for the performance difference is how these teams fared in medium-pass YPA. The Bills' 7.4 YPA here was the best in the NFL, while New Orleans' 10.0-yard mark ranked 17th. That was the main reason the Bills had a roughly 1-yard lead over the Saints in vertical YPA (9.54 for Buffalo, 10.59 for New Orleans). (Note: Vertical passes are defined as targets thrown 11 or more yards downfield)

If Byrd's addition can merely lower the Saints' medium YPA by a single yard, which is less than half of the medium YPA difference between these teams last season, it should knock off roughly 100-120 yards from the Saints' overall total (given the average number of medium-depth passes defenses typically face in a season).

Vertical pass ball hawking

Where Byrd really makes his biggest impact is in the area of ball hawking. Buffalo was one of the most dangerous teams to attempt a vertical pass down the middle against last year. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Bills intercepted 12.9 percent of vertical aerials thrown between the numbers, a mark that ranked second in the league.

That wasn't a 2013 anomaly, either, as Buffalo has the leaguewide lead (9.3 percent) in interception rate on those types of throws over the past five years, a time frame that corresponds with Byrd's entry into their defensive backfield.

Not all of this can be attributed to Byrd, but he does have 22 interceptions in that time frame, a total that ranks second in the league and first among free safeties, so he deserves a good amount of credit.

By contrast, New Orleans ranked 22nd in that category in 2013 (5.2 percent) and tied for 29th over the past five seasons in that category (4.4 percent).

If Byrd is able to raise the Saints' total here by 4 percentage points, it should add three interceptions to their bottom line (using their 2013 total of 77 vertical passes thrown down the middle). That percentage level (9.2 percent) would be roughly equal to Buffalo's pick rate in that category over the past five seasons but would be well short of what the Bills posted in 2013. If Byrd can move New Orleans into the 10-13 percent interceptions-over-the-middle rate, the Saints could see their pick total increase by as many as six.

That number could go even higher due to the Saints being able to use this part of Byrd's game in a different manner than Buffalo did. The key here is if Kenny Vaccaro is able to return at full strength following his late-season injury. Vaccaro's varied skill set (Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan recently said he was the best safety in the league) should allow him to take over the box safety and slot coverage responsibilities that the Bills had Byrd assume on more than a few occasions. This would let Byrd to stick to playing center field and give him even more opportunities to showcase his interception skills and return the ball to a high-powered Saints offense.

Bottom line

Football statisticians have estimated that interceptions are worth about 45 yards. Using that as a benchmark, it can be said that Revis' bottom line impact is likely to be about 175.5 yards on the low end (175.5 yards on coverage improvement, zero yards on interceptions) and 202.5 yards on the high end (202.5 yards on coverage improvement, zero yards on interceptions).

Under that same system, Byrd's bottom-line impact is likely to be about 255 yards on the low end (120 coverage yards saved on medium passes, 135 yards on three interceptions) and 390 yards on the high end (120 coverage yards, 270 yards on six interceptions).

Both of these signings were championship-caliber coups, but Byrd's acquisition solves a bigger secondary issue for the Saints. That isn't to minimize what Revis will bring, as I expect the Patriots' defense to be even better this season with him taking Talib's place as New England's top corner. But the overall improvement Byrd will provide the Saints surpasses what Revis will provide the Pats, as his versatility and ball skills not only bolster the D but will lead to the creation of more scoring opportunities for Drew Brees and the offense. That makes him the most impactful secondary position free-agent signing of this offseason.

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