re: 40% of Bitcoin Exchanges Fail; only 30% of those refund your Bitcoins...

For Bitcoins to succeed they need to be widely dispersed among tens of millions of users ready to use them without concern about exchange rates. Right now, and for the foreseeable future, most Bitcoin owners are more concerned with exchange rates than ability to spend Bitcoins. And ownership of Bitcoins are relatively concentrated. When you have douchebags like the Winklevoss brothers bragging about owning 11% of the existing Bitcoins you realize they are not holding the Bitcoins as an alternative form of currency. They are holding it as a commodity. It is safe to presume that many other Bitcoin owners have the same intentions.

Any event that causes a loss in confidence in Bitcoins as a commodity will be detrimental to Bitcoins' survival. I think the chances are that a catastrophic event will occur before Bitcoins become widely distributed among those who wish to use Bitcoins as currency rather than commodities.