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Message
Would you hedge this bet
Posted on 6/18/12 at 9:58 pm
Posted on 6/18/12 at 9:58 pm
Already got Heat for the Championship 600 to win 500.
Can bet 375 to win 600 on the Thunder now.
So, if Heat win + 125.
If Thunder win, break even.
hedge? Why or why not?
Can bet 375 to win 600 on the Thunder now.
So, if Heat win + 125.
If Thunder win, break even.
hedge? Why or why not?
This post was edited on 6/18/12 at 10:02 pm
Posted on 6/18/12 at 9:59 pm to dunkelman
frick NO. ABSOLUTELY NOT!
This post was edited on 6/18/12 at 10:00 pm
Posted on 6/18/12 at 10:03 pm to tigerpimpbot
Yea, I accident hit submit. Thanks for the insight.
Posted on 6/18/12 at 10:07 pm to tigerNation09
Which one? The first one or the one I'm contemplating? Why is it dumb IYO?
Posted on 6/18/12 at 11:20 pm to dunkelman
quote:
Already got Heat for the Championship 600 to win 500.
Can bet 375 to win 600 on the Thunder now.
So, if Heat win + 125.
If Thunder win, break even.
hedge? Why or why not?
I would just take the moneyline on the Thunder in each upcoming game. If you put 100 on the Thunder in the next game -- they will likely be a dog -- a Thunder loss loses you that 100 but pretty much ensures that your Heat play is going to hit.
If the heat go up 3-1, I would just let the next game ride.
If the Thunder tie it at 2-2, you probably turned that 100 into about 160 or so (I haven't been keeping up with the NBA moneylines). Take the Thunder again in the next game and if they win you, again, will have made yourself prolly between 150-200. Do it again in the final game and if the Thunder win the series, it doesn't hurt you too bad. You probably will have gotten 500 out of yoru 600 back.
The reason I like the moneyline on a per-game basis rather than taking the Thunder to win it all right now is that it is more flexible. In other wrods, if you take the 375 to win 600 and the Heat win the next game, you basically over-hedged.
Posted on 6/19/12 at 3:43 am to dunkelman
Let it ride, you always lose value in the long term when you hedge. You only hedge future bets with + ML, which isn't the case here.
Posted on 6/19/12 at 4:22 am to castorinho
quote:
Let it ride, you always lose value in the long term when you hedge. You only hedge future bets with + ML, which isn't the case here.
I hedge all the time. A standard play of mine is the 4-team ML parlay where my 4th game is later on in the day (late enough to be sure that the first 3 games will be finished).
So, basically it's just a 3 game ML parlay. The 4th game is just a throwaway game. Basically it's the late game that has the biggest odds. So after the first three legs of my parlay hit, I toss a small bet (it varies based on how big the odds are, of course) on the opposite team that I have in my 4th leg.
So if I take Tennessee, LSU, UGA, and UF in the ML parlay. With UF being my night game and probably playing a lesser team, say, Troy. If and when LSU, UGA, and Tennessee win, I put a little something straight up on Troy.
This is the only play I do where I'll put in a hedge, but I do it as a matter of course. I especially like it in college hoops. Tennis too. I had a 25 hedge on Andy Roddick against Federer a couple months ago and it hit after that scrub Andy Roddick somehow beat Federer in a tennis match. The odds were so big that I made twice as much with the hedge hitting as I would have off the parlay itself (25 is my bookie's minimum, so this can happen). But the Roddick example was of course just pure luck.
Posted on 6/19/12 at 4:34 pm to bobbyray21
Good God. You're as sick and twisted as I am.
Posted on 6/19/12 at 4:42 pm to bobbyray21
You lose TON of value in the long run when you hedge the last bet of your parlay. It's a decent short term thing I guess, but mathematically in the long run it is not good.
The best things to hedge are the "to win championship" ones.
The best things to hedge are the "to win championship" ones.
Posted on 6/19/12 at 4:48 pm to dunkelman
what was the point of the first bet if you were gonna just hedge when it looks great?
or did you just bet it so you can hedge?
or did you just bet it so you can hedge?
Posted on 6/19/12 at 5:48 pm to Ford Frenzy
Bet it drunk before Bosh hurt. Already had series vs. Pacers and Celtics win. So cashed two of the drunk bets without Bosh in the line up.
I think this is a rigged up league and they don't want it to end in 5. If they go back to OKC, I'm not sure I like Miami. if Miami wins I go into my Wimbledon betting up 125. As you have to lay some big numbers on tennis bets, don't want minus 600 as my start point.
I think this is a rigged up league and they don't want it to end in 5. If they go back to OKC, I'm not sure I like Miami. if Miami wins I go into my Wimbledon betting up 125. As you have to lay some big numbers on tennis bets, don't want minus 600 as my start point.
Posted on 6/20/12 at 3:51 pm to Ford Frenzy
quote:
what was the point of the first bet if you were gonna just hedge when it looks great?
or did you just bet it so you can hedge?
The only reason I bet futures is for later hedging.
I put 5 bucks on LSU to win it all in college basketball in 2006 at 75-1. Once they got to the final four, I hedged it out...made it a win-win.
Posted on 6/20/12 at 3:55 pm to bobbyray21
I had put 20 on the saints to win the Super Bowl the year they won it and I was very close to hedgin my bet in the playoffs but decided to let it ride.
Posted on 6/20/12 at 4:01 pm to dunkelman
quote:
I think this is a rigged up league and they don't want it to end in 5. If they go back to OKC, I'm not sure I like Miami. if Miami wins I go into my Wimbledon betting up 125. As you have to lay some big numbers on tennis bets, don't want minus 600 as my start point.
1. MJ ended several finals in 5 games. It ain't rigged. Professional sports are very very very difficult to rig.
College sports, on the other hand, are often rigged. Seriously. Lots and lots of small conference college basketball games have a point shaver or two on the court.
And it even happens occasionally in CFB. Hawaii vs. UNLV last year was UNQUESTIONABLY rigged. My friend and I knew this just because of the nonsensical outcome of the game. The result of the game made no sense. It was like four standard deviations away from how the game should have turned out. It was a wider variance than I'd ever seen. UNLV was literally the second or third worst team in CFB. They were losing all their games by 40 points. And then they beat Hawaii by 17? And the moneyline moved about 900 points in the hours preceding the game. DEFINITELY fixed. We weren't surprised to hear several months later that Hawaii's QB was suspected of taking money. I lost like $1,200 on that game. I'd love to kick the shite out of that ponytailed hawaii QB. What a scumbag.
2) This is my first year dabbling in tennis, but I'm doing pretty well. I'm up about five hundy since I started, which was in February or March. Underdogs are the better play in tennis. The odds for the favorites are way inflated. It's as if Vegas is double dog daring you to take the favorite.
Posted on 6/20/12 at 4:03 pm to LSU1018
quote:
I had put 20 on the saints to win the Super Bowl the year they won it and I was very close to hedgin my bet in the playoffs but decided to let it ride.
Are you a fan?
The only reason I put the 5 bucks on LSU that year was because a coworker of mine happened to be an LSU grad and tipped me that they might be pretty good. Once it got to the final four, the hedging was just a business decision.
Posted on 6/20/12 at 4:13 pm to dunkelman
quote:
Good God. You're as sick and twisted as I am.
Sick and twisted because of my 4 game ML parlay play strategy?
Remind me one day to tell you about my favorite play: "The Moneyline Backup". Or shite I'll do it now.
Assume Bama-7 @ Auburn. I think Bama will cover. So I put 100 on Bama to cover. But then I also put 110 on Bama on the moneyline, which would be in the -250 range.
Three things can happen:
Bama wins by less than 7: the ML bet covers the spread bet plus juice. I push.
Bama wins by more than 7: I win 210
Bama loses outrigh: I lose 110 + 275 == 385
The idea is to never let the third option happen. Or at least minimize it as much as possible.
Posted on 6/20/12 at 4:21 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
The idea is to never let the third option happen. Or at least minimize it as much as possible.
My favorite bet is this: The rolling bet.
CFB: Choose a game on Thursday, Friday, AM Sat, Mid-day Sat and Even Sat.
Bet $110 on Thursday CFB game.
Win $110 bet on Thursday, bet $220 on Friday.
Win $220 bet on Friday, bet $440 on AM Sat game.
Win $440 bet on AM Sat game, bet $880 on Mid-day Sat game.
Win $880 bet on Mid-day Sat game, bet $1600 on PM Sat.
Win $3200 on PM Sat game. Party.
I've done it a couple of times. Last year, I bet $50 on the Pats on Monday night, by Saturday evening, I had $2400 riding on Oklahoma St vs Tulsa.
This post was edited on 6/20/12 at 4:22 pm
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