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re: Trends in NBA draft lottery
Posted on 4/10/12 at 7:11 pm to TigerTatorTots
Posted on 4/10/12 at 7:11 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
You are lucky you said this, b/c I was about to type that shite out. People don't understand odds.
I understand odds, but it illustrates that the odds are nearly meaningless at such a tiny sample size. You have the best chance, but 4 could also hit every single time. All they are is odds. Odds are not a guarantee
Posted on 4/10/12 at 7:12 pm to Jester
quote:I 100% agree with that. I'm just saying, people who would rather the 2nd or 3rd worst record b/c history has given those slots the #1 pic more often, are idiots. Yes there isn't a huge difference, but only a ra-tard would ask for less opportunities to get that #1 spot.
I understand odds, but it illustrates that the odds are nearly meaningless at such a tiny sample size. You have the best chance, but 4 could also hit every single time. All they are is odds. Odds are not a guarantee
Posted on 4/10/12 at 7:18 pm to Jester
Here's a TrueHoop article on how to fix tanking and the lottery. Here's one of their ideas
LINK
There's a lot more detail. Interesting idea- rewards teams that don't tank and also helps out those teams that are normally stuck in no man's land in the draft- good enough to be a solid playoff team, but not good enough to contend.
One problem is that it doesn't take into account injuries- Hornets would be picking 29th based on this system
quote:
Like NBA teams and markets, few sales forces have the same profile. Some may have a lot of customers while others have a few, and some may require a lot of travel while others have very little. As a result, there is variation in the opportunity each sales rep has -- not every territory is created equal. Similarly, not every NBA team should be expected to win 50 games at the start of the season. In addition, most reps or teams have a pretty good sense of how they will end up before the season even started.
quote:
There are a variety of techniques used to set goals, accounting for a complicated range of factors. The league could invite a committee of John Hollinger, Kevin Pelton, Dean Oliver and other analytical experts to set the goals using their models. Another approach would be to "crowd source" the goals. The goals could be developed by surveying the teams (presumably the GMs), but there is another set of widely available crowd sourced goals for each team before the season begins: Vegas over/unders.
LINK
There's a lot more detail. Interesting idea- rewards teams that don't tank and also helps out those teams that are normally stuck in no man's land in the draft- good enough to be a solid playoff team, but not good enough to contend.
One problem is that it doesn't take into account injuries- Hornets would be picking 29th based on this system
Posted on 4/10/12 at 7:29 pm to OceanMan
The law of averages gives the spot who hasn't got the first pick a better chance to get unless the system is messed up
Posted on 4/10/12 at 7:32 pm to dcrews
quote:
2nd poster in this thread talking about it being the reason we shouldn't tank.
Besides it wasn't directed to anyone personally, just putting it out there in general.
well since you called me out, i'ma go ahead and say this...you are really badly misconstruing what I said. i've said my piece about this at least 5 times on this board, so i'm not doing it again.
quote:
Hornets would be picking 29th based on this system
i said this before the season started...we had a VERY easy schedule heading into the season and a half decent, relatively young-to-middle aged team when at 100% health. so that would make sense.
Posted on 4/10/12 at 7:33 pm to aswemajor
Doesn't the law of averages and gamblers fallacy go against each other?
If so, the gamblers fallacy makes much more sense (I.e. the ball lands on black 20 times in a row, people say the law of averages has to come into play soon and start hitting red, but in reality, there is a 50/50 shot every single time...well not quite if you include the green)
If so, the gamblers fallacy makes much more sense (I.e. the ball lands on black 20 times in a row, people say the law of averages has to come into play soon and start hitting red, but in reality, there is a 50/50 shot every single time...well not quite if you include the green)
Posted on 4/10/12 at 7:34 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
I'm just saying, people who would rather the 2nd or 3rd worst record b/c history has given those slots the #1 pic more often, are idiots. Yes there isn't a huge difference, but only a ra-tard would ask for less opportunities to get that #1 spot.
It's not enough for me to want losses, but better odds are a great consolation for all the losses.
Posted on 4/10/12 at 7:35 pm to Jester
quote:That has been my mindset all year. I cheer for the to win every game...but if they lose, better odds are the consolation
but better odds are a great consolation for all the losses.
Posted on 4/10/12 at 7:40 pm to corndeaux
The lottery does that without human opinions. Can a computer predict if a player's knee is 85%, but he plays through? What if the knee just never fully recovers? Tsk tsk. All you would have to do is shift the odds in the lottery if tanking is really an issue. It is not.
Posted on 4/10/12 at 8:03 pm to quail man
I wasn't calling you out for personal reasons, but he asked where I got something from, so I provided an example of what I thought it was within this thread. Nothing personal.
Secondly, I understand not wanting to lose on purpose. These guys are professionals and want to win.
Is it a considerable difference? No, but it is a 32 ball difference in your scenario which is a higher probability, why wouldn't you want the highest possible chances strictly from a numbers standpoint?
Every single draft before this has absolutely nothing to do with the odds of this upcoming draft. It's like roulette. Each spin is independent of itself and it has no memory of the past nor can it see future spins. "x" amount of lotto balls out of "y" total is what it is regardless of whether the worst record has won it 0% of the time or 100% of the time. It doesn't matter.
Secondly, I understand not wanting to lose on purpose. These guys are professionals and want to win.
quote:
We will probably have 167 or 173 combos going into the lottery. Washington will probably have 199 combos which isn't that different.
Is it a considerable difference? No, but it is a 32 ball difference in your scenario which is a higher probability, why wouldn't you want the highest possible chances strictly from a numbers standpoint?
Every single draft before this has absolutely nothing to do with the odds of this upcoming draft. It's like roulette. Each spin is independent of itself and it has no memory of the past nor can it see future spins. "x" amount of lotto balls out of "y" total is what it is regardless of whether the worst record has won it 0% of the time or 100% of the time. It doesn't matter.
Posted on 4/10/12 at 8:07 pm to dcrews
quote:This is what I have been preaching all season
Every single draft before this has absolutely nothing to do with the odds of this upcoming draft. It's like roulette. Each spin is independent of itself and it has no memory of the past nor can it see future spins. "x" amount of lotto balls out of "y" total is what it is regardless of whether the worst record has won it 0% of the time or 100% of the time. It doesn't matter.
Posted on 4/10/12 at 8:12 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
This is what I have been preaching all season
Yep, I am in full agreement with you.
Not a guarantee, but I'd like to be as close to one as possible. Especially with a player like Davis potentially on the line.
Posted on 4/10/12 at 9:08 pm to dcrews
quote:
Is it a considerable difference? No, but it is a 32 ball difference in your scenario which is a higher probability, why wouldn't you want the highest possible chances strictly from a numbers standpoint?
I don't know if I am want to cheer for a tank for a 3-4% better chance that Washington has over us.
We shouldn't fall out of 3rd.
It has been completely obvious Charlotte and Washington are in full tank mode. They don't even seem to care. At least the Hornets have seemed competitive and that is with the unlucky injuries.
Posted on 4/10/12 at 10:04 pm to Colonel Flagg
Right. That's an entirely different discussion. I was just talking strictly from a numbers standpoint.
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