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What LSU Has To Do To Make The Tourney - as of Feb 15th
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:44 pm
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:44 pm
First, you can throw out all the typical "resume" talk that you hear on ESPN. LSU does not have the RPI nor quality wins; those things don't matter. What matters is that the selection committee is going to let 5 SEC teams into the Tourney.
1. USCe is a must win on the road. They are 8-6 at home and 1-7 in the SEC. This get's LSU's road to the Tourney going.
2. Win 3 of the next 4. With LSU's remaining schedule, this will be fun to watch. Assuming we get the W vs. USCe, the remaining schedule is:
Georgia 3 - 7
@Ole Miss 5 - 5
Tennessee 5 - 5
@Auburn 3 - 8
3. Kentucy or Florida must win the SEC Tourney. Based on this year, that is very likely. A suprise win by some other team in the SEC Tourney usually means someone gets left out. That would likely be LSU.
Conclusion: If Nos. 1 - 3 play out, and we really have a chance here, then LSU will get in.
SEC Standings as of Feb 15th:
Kentucky 11 - 0
Florida 8 - 3
Vanderbilt 6 - 4
Mississippi St. 6 - 5
Arkansas 5 - 5
Ole Miss 5 - 5
Tennessee 5 - 5
Alabama 5 - 6
LSU 5 - 6
Do you notice the log jam from position No. 3 to 9? It's nice and crowded. LSU needs to squeak into that top 5.
A 4-1 finish is possible. A 4-1 finish gets LSU in.
Frick a RPI
1. USCe is a must win on the road. They are 8-6 at home and 1-7 in the SEC. This get's LSU's road to the Tourney going.
2. Win 3 of the next 4. With LSU's remaining schedule, this will be fun to watch. Assuming we get the W vs. USCe, the remaining schedule is:
Georgia 3 - 7
@Ole Miss 5 - 5
Tennessee 5 - 5
@Auburn 3 - 8
3. Kentucy or Florida must win the SEC Tourney. Based on this year, that is very likely. A suprise win by some other team in the SEC Tourney usually means someone gets left out. That would likely be LSU.
Conclusion: If Nos. 1 - 3 play out, and we really have a chance here, then LSU will get in.
SEC Standings as of Feb 15th:
Kentucky 11 - 0
Florida 8 - 3
Vanderbilt 6 - 4
Mississippi St. 6 - 5
Arkansas 5 - 5
Ole Miss 5 - 5
Tennessee 5 - 5
Alabama 5 - 6
LSU 5 - 6
Do you notice the log jam from position No. 3 to 9? It's nice and crowded. LSU needs to squeak into that top 5.
A 4-1 finish is possible. A 4-1 finish gets LSU in.
Frick a RPI
This post was edited on 2/15/12 at 4:51 pm
8
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:46 pm to jrodLSUke
If we go 4-1 to finish out we may still need at least 2-3 wins in the SEC tourney to get in. An early exit from the SEC tourney pushes us out of the tourney even if we the regular season finish strong.
This post was edited on 2/15/12 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:47 pm to jrodLSUke
I agree that 5 SEC teams can get in this year, but they don't necessarily have to pick the teams that finished 1-5.
Just for comparisons sake(because I don't feel like looking up everyone's schedule):
Kentucky 3
Florida 21
Vandy 28
Bama 39
Mississippi St 49
LSU 67
Arkansas 69
Ole Miss 77
Georgia 113
Tennessee 120
Auburn 131
USCe 185
Must win a game or two in the SECt in N.O.
Just for comparisons sake(because I don't feel like looking up everyone's schedule):
Kentucky 3
Florida 21
Vandy 28
Bama 39
Mississippi St 49
LSU 67
Arkansas 69
Ole Miss 77
Georgia 113
Tennessee 120
Auburn 131
USCe 185
Must win a game or two in the SECt in N.O.
This post was edited on 2/15/12 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:48 pm to jrodLSUke
The more I see it, the worse I feel. I think only 4 teams get into the tourney from SEC. I think LSU could get into there, but its gonna take us being near flawless the rest of the way.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:59 pm to jrodLSUke
I feel like if we win out these last 5 games and get the third seed in the SEC tourny we are probably in. If we go 4 and 1 and win a tourny game we are on the bubble. 3 and 2 and we are out.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:01 pm to jrodLSUke
I still do not expect to make it to the dance but that is some very good info by the OP. Thanks.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:12 pm to jrodLSUke
quote:
you can throw out all the typical "resume" talk that you hear on ESPN. LSU does not have the RPI nor quality wins; those things don't matter.
Yeah, they kinda do tend to matter. Bama went 12-4 in the SEC last year and didn't make the tournament.
If LSU wins out and finishes 10-6 in conf., they'll likely need to at least win 1 game in the SECT. IF that happens they will have a decent shot to make the NCAA's due to the fact that they were red-hot late in the season (See 2003 for reference)
If they finish 9-7, they will need to make some serious noise in the SECT (likely nothing short of the championship game). Plus it will depend on who that 7th conf loss was to, i.e. it better not be USC, UGA or Aub.
The middle of the SEC is starting to "cannibalize" itself. 5 teams from the SEC is not a given. Best thing for LSU right now (besides continuing to win) is to have the top 3 (UK, Fla. Vandy or Miss. St.) separate themselves from the pack, so that LSU would be in a "beauty contest" with the middle 3-4 teams.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 4:48 pm to jrodLSUke
quote:
Win 3 of the next 4.
Stopped reading there.
LSU MUST win out. End of story.
Posted on 2/16/12 at 7:31 am to jrodLSUke
For me, as an LSU fan no matter what the sport, just the fact that we are discussing this is kind of surreal. I would be satisfied with a NIT invite. Making the Big Dance this year would be a monumental turnaround for this program considering. Fun to talk about but my expectations are NIT at this stage of the rebuild.
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