re: Final 2011 College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings (updated)

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I use Massey for everything.

IMO his rankings are the best, and I've used his predictor model for NAIA basketball games and the outcomes are very very similar

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Massey ranks Kentucky's schedule thus far at #56, the weakest in the SEC and the only SEC schedule weaker than Boise State's. Last year, Kentucky's average schedule rank was #71 which was also the weakest in the SEC, eight spots behind Boise State (#63) and eight spots ahead of TCU (#79). The Wildcats are proof that being in the SEC doesn't guarantee you a tough schedule and that non-conference games do matter no matter what conference you play in.

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The computers don't have biases towards any particular school or conference.

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Actually they must have bias or they would yield identical results since the data being used is the same. How those biases relate to any particular schools or conferences cannot be known without having access to the formula used in each ranking.

From empirical observation I have noticed that the strength of schedule for members of 10 team conferences that play a 9 game round-robin conference schedule tend to be significantly higher than for shools who are members of conferences that play 8 game conference schedules. If you compare the Big-XII and Pac-10 this year and the last few you will see an interesting result. Losing Nebraska and Colorado strengthened the schedules of the Big-XII. Adding Colorado and Utah weakened the PAC-10.

The significance of the change is what causes me to suspect that the strength of schedule impact of the extra conference game is somehow overvalued, or biased.

According to Sagarin, in 2010 the 10 members of the Pac-10 had the first through tenth highest strength of schedule ratings. The conference average strength of schedule was a perfect 5.50. By contrast the 12 member Big-XII conference had cumulative rankings totaling 460, or an average of 38.33 strength of schedule rating. In 2011 the Pac-12 added two new members, and its cumulative stength of schedule rankings increased from 55 to 343. The average among members is 28.58. The Big-XII lost two members and its cumulative strength of schedule rankings for 2011 are 68, or an average of 6.80 among its members.

That is a very significant differential in favor of conferences with 10 members. I think there is some bias in Sagarin's model to account for the reversal in relative average strengths of schedule rankings among conferences.

Houston 100+ in them all

Computers love the Big 12. For some reason.....

are OOC results the only thing that really matters when comparing the SOS of one conference to another?

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No team in the top 5

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i think OSU may slide in there

Here's the week 13 weekly update:

Kenneth Massey
1 LSU
2 Alabama
3 Texas A&M
4 Oregon
5 Iowa St
6 Texas
7 Oklahoma
8 Arkansas
9 Kansas St
10 Oklahoma St
11 Missouri
12 Baylor
13 Auburn
14 USC
15 Mississippi
16 Tennessee
17 Kansas
18 Florida
19 Mississippi St
20 Notre Dame
21 Stanford
22 Texas Tech
23 UCLA
24 Arizona
25 Nebraska
32 Georgia
41 Boise St
46 Wisconsin
51 Tulsa
56 TCU
59 Virginia Tech
98 Houston
116 ULL

Colley Matrix
1 Kansas    
2 Texas A&M    
3 Texas    
4 Oklahoma    
5 Oklahoma St    
6 Mississippi    
7 Baylor    
8 Iowa St    
9 Missouri    
10 Texas Tech    
11 Auburn    
12 Kansas St    
13 Tennessee    
14 Arizona    
15 LSU    
16 Mississippi St    
17 Florida    
18 Minnesota    
19 Oregon St    
20 UCLA    
21 USC    
22 Alabama    
23 Notre Dame    
24 Colorado    
25 Nebraska    
36 Georgia    
40 Clemson    
45 Stanford    
48 Boise St    
64 Virginia Tech    
68 TCU
71 Wisconsin
104 Houston  
113 ULL  

Jeff Sagarin
1 Kansas
2 Texas A&M
3 Iowa State
4 Texas
5 Missouri
6 Baylor
7 Texas Tech
8 Oklahoma State
9 Kansas State
10 Oklahoma
11 Auburn
12 Ole Miss
13 Tennessee
14 Arizona
15 Oregon State
16 UCLA
17 Colorado
18 Minnesota
19 USC
20 LSU
21 Florida
22 Mississippi State
23 Alabama
24 Washington
25 Oregon
28 Arkansas
35 Stanford
39 Georgia
51 Boise State
60 Virginia Tech
64 Wisconsin
75 TCU
111 Houston
123 ULL

JHowell
1 UCLA
2 Kansas
3 Mississippi
4 Colorado
5 Oklahoma State
6 Oklahoma
7 Texas
8 Arizona
9 Louisiana State
10 Texas A&M
11 Oregon State
12 Auburn
13 Iowa State
14 Notre Dame
15 Tennessee
16 Mississippi State
17 Southern California
18 Minnesota
19 Baylor
20 Missouri
21 Georgia
22 Marshall
23 Clemson
24 Oregon
25 Kansas State
35 Virginia Tech
40 Alabama
42 Stanford
53 Arkansas
59 Wisconsin
84 Boise State
99 Houston
105 TCU
112 ULL

With only a few games left to the season, these schedule ranking shouldn't change that much in the last week. One thing that kind of surprised me is that all three of the computers that are used by the BCS rank Boise State's schedule tougher than Virginia Tech's and Wisconsin's.

The sad thing is that Wisconsin was two Hail Marys away from going undefeated, and many folks would have been willing to put them in the championship game ahead of Alabama if they had. Their schedule was also weaker than Boise State's last year, but they don't get scrutinized and ridiculed for their schedule because they are in an AQ conference.