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re: BCS Early Computer Rankings - Wow
Posted on 10/4/11 at 10:41 am to jmitc22
Posted on 10/4/11 at 10:41 am to jmitc22
quote:
relax. as of now the teams with the top strength of schedule are Tulsa and Florida Atlantic.
yeah, because they just lose, they improve their opponents ranking, which improves their own SoS ranking
I don't know if it's possible for the #1 team to have the #1 SoS in the Colley.
I suppose it might be mathematically possible, but it'll never ever ever happen.
0
Posted on 10/4/11 at 10:47 am to FTL Tiger
Really means nothing right now. I have spoken to a couple of guys who will vote LSU #1 on the Harris poll. LSU winning will take care of all the computer rankings as well. Their sos will continue to climb for several weeks now. Providing they do not lose, they will be in the top two of the BCS rankings after 8 weeks.
Posted on 10/4/11 at 10:49 am to FTL Tiger
I really think these were just picked at random.....by a drunken 5 year old
Posted on 10/4/11 at 10:56 am to brohemalem11
Posted on 10/4/11 at 10:57 am to FTL Tiger
Why must we go through this every year? 
There's been some pretty good explanations, but just would like to add:
Yes we've played WVU and Oregon, which we know are tough based on our's and the medias perception. BUT that means nothing in computer rankings, there is no perception bias. At the beginning of the season, Oregon and WVU start at the same level as Kent st and western Kentucky, and will remain that way until results pour in and prove otherwise.
The reason some of the computer polls (ie sagarin) look "normal" is because they use preseason rankings to help them look normal but they eventually take those out.
Fwiw, the colley matrix is probably the best computer poll out there. You can look at the formulas and do it yourself. His methods are completely transparent.
There's been some pretty good explanations, but just would like to add:
Yes we've played WVU and Oregon, which we know are tough based on our's and the medias perception. BUT that means nothing in computer rankings, there is no perception bias. At the beginning of the season, Oregon and WVU start at the same level as Kent st and western Kentucky, and will remain that way until results pour in and prove otherwise.
The reason some of the computer polls (ie sagarin) look "normal" is because they use preseason rankings to help them look normal but they eventually take those out.
Fwiw, the colley matrix is probably the best computer poll out there. You can look at the formulas and do it yourself. His methods are completely transparent.
Posted on 10/4/11 at 11:00 am to FTL Tiger
L O L
Posted on 10/4/11 at 11:03 am to FTL Tiger
Anderson and Hester
Funniest one is where they have Aubie and USCe ranked ahead of Wisconsin.
They should take the calculator away from those guys.
Funniest one is where they have Aubie and USCe ranked ahead of Wisconsin.
They should take the calculator away from those guys.
Posted on 10/4/11 at 11:19 am to FTL Tiger
I will comment more later on, but Colley Matrix is my favorite (and probably best) computer poll.
When you analyze computer polls you have to remember that they (especially) Colley don't include any bias of any sort. So:
1. LSU's win over Miss State is very unimpressive. They have 3 losses and haven't beaten anyone.
2. Oregon and WVU are nice wins, but they too haven't beaten anyone - especially with respect to the Colley poll.
In short, the Colley Matrix needs more games for teams to become connected and give more realistic results. I don't trust any computer that DOES make sense this early in the season.
When you analyze computer polls you have to remember that they (especially) Colley don't include any bias of any sort. So:
1. LSU's win over Miss State is very unimpressive. They have 3 losses and haven't beaten anyone.
2. Oregon and WVU are nice wins, but they too haven't beaten anyone - especially with respect to the Colley poll.
In short, the Colley Matrix needs more games for teams to become connected and give more realistic results. I don't trust any computer that DOES make sense this early in the season.
Posted on 10/4/11 at 11:22 am to brohemalem11
quote:
I really think these were just picked at random.....by a drunken 5 year old
If a drunken five year old used the mathematical approach described below, I would like to hire him.
COLLEY EXPLANATION
This post was edited on 10/4/11 at 11:39 am
Posted on 10/4/11 at 11:37 am to lsumatt
you may know your math, but you fail at links
Posted on 10/4/11 at 11:39 am to bee Rye
crud. Try that.
Posted on 10/4/11 at 11:40 am to lsumatt
thats better 
Posted on 10/4/11 at 11:41 am to bee Rye
It is a really interesting read. If math isn't your thing, you will get lost around page 4 but the introduction is interesting for anyone.
Posted on 10/4/11 at 12:17 pm to lsumatt
Matt, are you going to start publishing your own computer poll like in years past? There are one or two other poster who have their own computer poll as well, huh? I can't remember.
Posted on 10/4/11 at 12:24 pm to bee Rye
quote:
BCS Early Computer Rankings - Wow
This is a joke..LOL
Posted on 10/4/11 at 12:26 pm to FTL Tiger
quote:
Colley Matrix has UL-Lafayette ranked #30
Anderson had them at #30 as well.
Cal and Tennessee are in the 40s in these polls, so continue to take them FWTAW. I may have to rethink my position on whether we would be #1 in the BCS if the offical rankings were out now.
I'd rather face Bama with them being the #1 ranked team, anyway.
Posted on 10/4/11 at 12:27 pm to FTL Tiger
My e-mail sent to Wesley Colley;
Your matrix is pathetic! How can you have LSU at 7 and Illinois at 4? ULL at 30 is even a bigger joke. You don't have the Top 25 wins for LSU correct either. I am astounded that the BCS even uses your matrix! Hopefully the weight it real light! GFY!
Your matrix is pathetic! How can you have LSU at 7 and Illinois at 4? ULL at 30 is even a bigger joke. You don't have the Top 25 wins for LSU correct either. I am astounded that the BCS even uses your matrix! Hopefully the weight it real light! GFY!
This post was edited on 10/4/11 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 10/4/11 at 12:32 pm to krehn11
quote:
Oregon at 33
and ULL ahead of them...that's all you need to know about the credibility and quality of this poll.
Posted on 10/4/11 at 12:33 pm to Me Bite
quote:please god tell me you are just joking
My e-mail sent to Wesley Colley;
Posted on 10/4/11 at 12:42 pm to tirebiter
quote:
UO and WVU haven't had tough schedules other than LSU, beating creampuffs only helps SOS so much no matter the gaudy offensive stats, which effects LSU's standings. Bama beat AR and UF, AR beat A&M, what's hard to understand.
agree in part - tho Oregon and WVU only have one loss atm (and A&M has only beaten SMU and Idaho)
quote:
LSU just needs to keep taking care of business.
Obviously right - the good news/bad news about playing a tough schedule in the SEC is that you should control your fate (but if you drop a game you may be edged out by a team that ran the table on an easier schedule)
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