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FBS Thesis: It was easier for "cinderellas" to win NC in the pre-BCS era
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:04 pm
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:04 pm
Agree or disagree? And why?
Evidence in support of my thesis:
1) BYU 1984
2) Miami 1983
3) Penn State 1982
4) Florida State 1993 (I know they were in the ACC by that point, but they won the NC in their 2nd year of membership - it was a meteoric rise).
5) The closest any non-AQ team came to the BCS title was Boise State and TCU in the "Consolation Bowl" in 2009.
Alternative thesis: There was something weird about the early 1980s.
-Throw out FSU 1993 because it doesn't fit.
-All the other examples come from the early to mid 1980s.
Evidence in support of my thesis:
1) BYU 1984
2) Miami 1983
3) Penn State 1982
4) Florida State 1993 (I know they were in the ACC by that point, but they won the NC in their 2nd year of membership - it was a meteoric rise).
5) The closest any non-AQ team came to the BCS title was Boise State and TCU in the "Consolation Bowl" in 2009.
Alternative thesis: There was something weird about the early 1980s.
-Throw out FSU 1993 because it doesn't fit.
-All the other examples come from the early to mid 1980s.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:06 pm to TxTiger82
2003 LSU
2010 Auburn
We all know the SEC is dominant, but the nation had both these teams ranked in the high teens to start the year
2010 Auburn
We all know the SEC is dominant, but the nation had both these teams ranked in the high teens to start the year
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:08 pm to TxTiger82
Non-AQs couldnt even sniff one of the major four bowl games before the BCS. Now at least there's one or two nonAQ teams in the BCS each year.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:08 pm to DelU249
That is a good point. I suppose we need a working definition of what a "cinderella" is.
I had in mind teams from non-major conferences.
If you are in a major conference, you can gain credibility by winning that conference even if nobody expected that team to do well.
This is not really the case for the non-AQs.
I had in mind teams from non-major conferences.
If you are in a major conference, you can gain credibility by winning that conference even if nobody expected that team to do well.
This is not really the case for the non-AQs.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:08 pm to TxTiger82
That is because regional bias allowed some teams to squeak away with a championship. Also since they didn't have to play tough NC games.
BYU beat a 6-5 michigan team by 7. Today the world would explode if that happened.
BYU beat a 6-5 michigan team by 7. Today the world would explode if that happened.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:10 pm to TxTiger82
while watching tOSU and Miami play for the BCS, I said "too bad I'll never live to see LSU win a national title"...they win their first since 59 the next year."
This post was edited on 1/26/11 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:11 pm to bigpapamac
quote:
Non-AQs couldnt even sniff one of the major four bowl games before the BCS. Now at least there's one or two nonAQ teams in the BCS each year.
A decent point. But Miami was an exception. They beat Nebraska in that classic 84 Orange Bowl.
Also, Penn State beat Georgia in the Sugar to take the 82 title.
BYU did play in the Holiday Bowl, so that fits with what you are talking about.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:12 pm to TigerMyth36
quote:
That is because regional bias allowed some teams to squeak away with a championship. Also since they didn't have to play tough NC games.
BYU beat a 6-5 michigan team by 7. Today the world would explode if that happened.
This is a pretty good explanation, I think, and worthy of more exploration.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:13 pm to TxTiger82
I am still wondering why all of my examples come from the early 1980s, though. What was going on back then?
Why was it different than the 1970s, when teams like Alabama, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame dominated. (Pitt 76 was a possible exception here).
Why was it different from the 1990s, when we got bogged down in the "split championship" quagmire?
Why was it different than the 1970s, when teams like Alabama, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame dominated. (Pitt 76 was a possible exception here).
Why was it different from the 1990s, when we got bogged down in the "split championship" quagmire?
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:18 pm to TxTiger82
disagree. BYU is really the only team you mentioned that I think would qualify as a Cinderella.
Yes Miami was new to the national picture but they scheduled nationally and were respected at that point.
PSU as well. Never could be considered a Cinderella.
The BCS has done more to advance the Non-AQ schools than they could have ever done on their own. Meaning they would not do what FSU and Miami did in the 80's. schedule their arse off and go take championships.
Currently the Non-AQs can schedule one "tough" team, roll thru their conference and end up in a BCS bowl. Didn't work like that in the 80's IMO
FWIW look who UM played in 83. @ #7 Florida (lost), @ Houston, Purdue, #13 Notre Dame, @ Miss State, #12 WV, @ FSU and then beat Neb in the Orange Bowl
Yes Miami was new to the national picture but they scheduled nationally and were respected at that point.
PSU as well. Never could be considered a Cinderella.
The BCS has done more to advance the Non-AQ schools than they could have ever done on their own. Meaning they would not do what FSU and Miami did in the 80's. schedule their arse off and go take championships.
Currently the Non-AQs can schedule one "tough" team, roll thru their conference and end up in a BCS bowl. Didn't work like that in the 80's IMO
FWIW look who UM played in 83. @ #7 Florida (lost), @ Houston, Purdue, #13 Notre Dame, @ Miss State, #12 WV, @ FSU and then beat Neb in the Orange Bowl
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:25 pm to stapuffmarshy
Good points. Miami and FSU did "schedule their asses off" and nobody really follows that model today.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:29 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
Miami and FSU did "schedule their asses off" and nobody really follows that model today.
exactly. all you get now is Non AQ's complaining that the big boys won't fly to BFE and play on fake blue grass
I say if you wanna win a championship and be taken seriously by fans and such schedule four BCS schools a year plus your conference and take your chances. The Boise's of the world would never do that now, plus with the current BCS system in place they don't HAVE to do it
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:34 pm to stapuffmarshy
We can all hate on the BCS, but other than 04, we've had the two best teams playing for the national title
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:36 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
2) Miami 1983
3) Penn State 1982
4) Florida State 1993 (I know they were in the ACC by that point, but they won the NC in their 2nd year of membership - it was a meteoric rise).
Independent =/= Cinderella
Posted on 1/26/11 at 2:44 pm to TigerMyth36
quote:
BYU beat a 6-5 michigan team by 7. Today the world would explode if that happened.
I agree but all things aside. Robbie Bosco from BYU played one hell of a game that day basically on a broken leg.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 3:18 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
1) BYU 1984
2) Miami 1983
3) Penn State 1982
4) Florida State 1993
These "cinderellas" were from an era in college football before big power conferences. During that time period, the SWC was about the only power conference. That was also a time where it was possible to have multiple national champions in a single year.
TCU possibly would have split a national championship this year without the BCS matching up #1 and #2.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 3:24 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
1) BYU 1984
2) Miami 1983
3) Penn State 1982
4) Florida State 1993 (I know they were in the ACC by that point, but they won the NC in their 2nd year of membership - it was a meteoric rise).
This is all wrong.
Independent teams are not cinderellas. Was Notre Dame a cinderella in 88'?
Miami's program rose quickly...so that one is debatable. But then again, Boise and TCU rose pretty damn fast too. That's the nature of the beast. What about LSU in 03'...they were pretty crappy a couple years before. Surprise champion? Yes. But your definition of cinderella is skewed.
BYU was not from a power conference...so I get your point there.
FSU?!? They were top ranked in the land OVER an undefeated Nebraska team despite having a loss to their record (the epic ND clash). They were favored. And tell me...what was their preseason rank.
Penn State was an established power going to major bowl games left and right. How the hell are they a cinderella?
I don't get this whatsoever. Some of the champs in your list were favorites in the preseason.
Your logic should suggest that 2003 LSU, 2000 Oklahoma, 1998 Tennessee are all cinderellas.
And seriously...you are messed up if you don't include 1990 Georgia Tech.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 3:25 pm to DelU249
quote:
We can all hate on the BCS, but other than 04, we've had the two best teams playing for the national title
I would suggest the opposite. There has been controversy in every year but 2002, 2005, and 2010.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 3:25 pm to GeauxTigersLee
quote:
These "cinderellas" were from an era in college football before big power conferences. During that time period, the SWC was about the only power conference. That was also a time where it was possible to have multiple national champions in a single year.
Also good points.
Posted on 1/26/11 at 3:28 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
4) Florida State 1993 (I know they were in the ACC by that point, but they won the NC in their 2nd year of membership - it was a meteoric rise).
They finished in the top 4 every year from 1987-1992, they were #1 most of the 93 season.
The only real cinderalla's on list is Miami in 83 and maybe BYU since they are a non AQ, but they were a well know program at the time and that year was like 2007, every one else lost a couple of times. 83 Miami would not have won in the BCS era, Nebraska would have played Texas.
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