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Devastation is imminent/ or overblown and minimal effects???

Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:09 pm
Posted by mouton
Savannah,Ga
Member since Aug 2006
28276 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:09 pm
Which camp or you in???? Im rootin for the latter but i am totally uninformed and dont know what to believe. Nothin to do but pray for the best. Those in the overblown camp please cheer me up.
Posted by ibldpg
south
Member since Dec 2009
2503 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:23 pm to
some shite will happen, but nothing like the media makes it out to be...the media is absolutely ridiculous when it comes to covering stories like this....hey! shite happens! we'll all move on
Posted by YatTigah
Lakeview, New Orleans, LA
Member since May 2010
517 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:31 pm to
i think there's alot to be said about the fact that this is a natural substance and not a highly refined crude oil like you're used to thinking of when regarding oil spills.
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
52884 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:33 pm to
The latter for me. I believe the largest impact will be due to health concerns of eating contaiminated seafood rather than the utter devesation of the seafood. 2 year recovery at worst.

Remember, when you see a map of the area of the spill, it isn't all a choking layer of oil. Most of that is far offshore where there is a dearth of biological activity anyhow. Around 90% of the spill is "just" a rainbow film to the water.
Posted by YatTigah
Lakeview, New Orleans, LA
Member since May 2010
517 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

The latter for me. I believe the largest impact will be due to health concerns of eating contaiminated seafood rather than the utter devesation of the seafood. 2 year recovery at worst


i agree, but my biggest concern has always been damage to coastal wetlands more than it has the seafood industry.

oysters might get scarce, but finfish and shrimp will come back stronger than we give them credit for. if oil starts killing large patches of marsh grass, Louisiana has big problems.

i think one way or another, we are going to get substantial sums of money put toward coastal restoration out of this, whether we get Federal money, money from BP or bond it out depending on state litigation vs. BP
This post was edited on 5/6/10 at 9:38 pm
Posted by offshoretrash
Farmerville, La
Member since Aug 2008
10713 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:37 pm to
I saw a head line today on a paper that read
"Oil leak COULD be causing UNSEEN havoc". This is the typical gloom and doom that the news outlets uses to make a sale.

I know this is a bad thing but the amount of oil leaking versus the mass of the gulf of Mexico is not even close. I think it can absorb more that they think it can. I am sure some will reach shore but I believe the vast majority will never be seen.
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
52884 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:41 pm to
quote:

i think there's alot to be said about the fact that this is a natural substance and not a highly refined crude oil like you're used to thinking of when regarding oil spills.



There is no such thing as refined crude oil. Its a contradiction of terms.

And refining merely seperates components already prescent. Gasoline is in crude oil, but it is mixed with tar and asphalt too.

If there is a benefit from this being crude oil, is that there are fractions of the volume being vented that are self cleaning. Parts of it will evaporate, while others will automatically settle out in the water.

That is one benefit this spill has (other than a dramatically less volume in an open space as opposed to being in PWS), is the fact that Gulf oil is a lot "lighter" than Alaskan oil. That is, it has more of the volatile fractions that will just evaporate away.
This post was edited on 5/6/10 at 9:43 pm
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
52884 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:43 pm to
quote:

I know this is a bad thing but the amount of oil leaking versus the mass of the gulf of Mexico is not even close. I think it can absorb more that they think it can. I am sure some will reach shore but I believe the vast majority will never be seen.


Dilution is the solution to pollution.
Posted by Alatgr
Mobeezy, Alabizzle
Member since Sep 2005
18042 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 10:09 pm to
quote:

nothing like the media makes it out to be


Have you read what any of the biologists are saying about it? Its not likely to be the one or two year hiccup some of y'all think its going to be.
Posted by ibldpg
south
Member since Dec 2009
2503 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 10:12 pm to
nor is it likely to be the end of the world like everyone outside of having any literal knowledge of the events taking place make it out...granted, there may be some dead fishies and turles, wildlife, etc, but it will only amount to a fraction of what is in the gulf
Posted by tgrgrd00
Kenner, LA
Member since Jun 2004
10919 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 10:17 pm to
quote:

Its not likely to be the one or two year hiccup some of y'all think its going to be.


It seems like most of the people who feel this way work in the industry or for the MMS/fed government.

Imo
Posted by Markie812
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2007
2941 posts
Posted on 5/6/10 at 10:29 pm to
quote:

If there is a benefit from this being crude oil, is that there are fractions of the volume being vented that are self cleaning. Parts of it will evaporate, while others will automatically settle out in the water.

That is one benefit this spill has (other than a dramatically less volume in an open space as opposed to being in PWS), is the fact that Gulf oil is a lot "lighter" than Alaskan oil. That is, it has more of the volatile fractions that will just evaporate away.


Good post!

The media (mostly national) has made this into a bigger deal than it really is, even though there is still leaks that need fixing it will not turn out to be like the spill in Alaska in 1989. The oil leaking is a sweet crude which is not as dense than places such as Alaska. There was a meeting today the coast guard held that my dad went to for business reasons (he is the head engineer for the work on the Heuy P. Long bridge), his acounts of the meeting sounded optimistic though the Coast Guard will definately be ready for a worse case scenario. People might not know but less oil has spilled so far than it did during Katrina, though that oil did not threaten our coastland but rather went into the Atlantic and the cleanup was not very bad. So far in the current situation chemical treatment towards the leaks and surface has helped to brake up oil, I believe it is one gallon of the chemical can help brake up 20 gallons of oil. There have also been 5 burnoffs that have been very successful and more could continue to help. I am by no means trying to say that this spill is not a bad thing and will be treated easy becuase it will take effort and time but it does seem overblown. One more thing is that fish have been caught where the slick is and cut open to test and they were considered alright for market.
Posted by Oyster
North Shore
Member since Feb 2009
10224 posts
Posted on 5/7/10 at 6:39 am to
quote:

some shite will happen, but nothing like the media makes it out to be...the media is absolutely ridiculous when it comes to covering stories like this....hey! shite happens! we'll all move on


Just like Hurricane season they are trying to increase viewer numbers in order to sell junk off of commercials. All they wind up doing is scaring the living crap out of people.
Sure there is a big concern and a big problem. Lets work thru it and get it taken care of. No need to scare everyone to death. It will take time but things will get better.
When the media acts like this I turn off the TV and read a few stores a day off the net.
Posted by jeffsdad
Member since Mar 2007
24041 posts
Posted on 5/7/10 at 7:16 am to
I would guess it depends on how long this goes on. If it is actually 3 months then it could be the worst case scenario as described, if stopped soon, then bad, but not near what the news media is describing. They are all just guessing until its stopped.
Posted by TigerDog83
Member since Oct 2005
8740 posts
Posted on 5/7/10 at 8:03 am to
quote:

It seems like most of the people who feel this way work in the industry or for the MMS/fed government.


And they are the people with the most understanding of the situation also. Many people have limited knowledge of the industry and take the media at it's word too often. I've noticed that media coverage of the oil and gas industry is often worse than almost any other subject with many wrong names, explanations, data, etc. included in articles and interviews.
Posted by oilfieldtiger
Pittsburgh, PA
Member since Dec 2003
2904 posts
Posted on 5/7/10 at 8:06 am to
quote:

I've noticed that media coverage of the oil and gas industry is often worse than almost any other subject with many wrong names, explanations, data, etc. included in articles and interviews

it makes you wonder if the coverage of other industries is any better?
Posted by go4lsu
Luling
Member since Aug 2006
985 posts
Posted on 5/7/10 at 8:20 am to
I saw on the local news last night, I think it was Fox 8, they had a environmentalist from LSU on there talking about the oil that was reported to have reached land yesterday. He said that a crew went out there to take samples of the water and tests showed no presence of oil. He said that was "disheartening" that they didn't find any traces of oil. It's like he wanted there to be some and was disapointed there wasn't.
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
52884 posts
Posted on 5/7/10 at 8:29 am to
quote:

it makes you wonder if the coverage of other industries is any better?


FWIW, my background is in biology and I cringe whenever something in the field makes MSM like this (swine flu being the last example).

I've developed a heathy cynicism regarding media coverage of science heavy events, and read closely for hints of what the reality is rather than what the author thinks the reality is.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21006 posts
Posted on 5/7/10 at 8:36 am to
I'm not going to argue for or against devastation b/c no one really knows. But it is a known fact that a lot of crude oil naturally seeps into the ocean. Here they talk about natural seepage off of Cali -

NOAA describe a natural seepage area in California: "One of the best-known areas where this happens is Coal Oil Point along the California Coast near Santa Barbara. An estimated 2,000 to 3,000 gallons of crude oil is released naturally from the ocean bottom every day just a few miles offshore from this beach".
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 5/7/10 at 8:40 am to
quote:


I've noticed that media coverage of the oil and gas industry is often worse than almost any other subject with many wrong names, explanations, data, etc. included in articles and interviews.



If you've never worked in the industry then you wont understand what's it all about. Even the kids fresh out of college with engineering degree's that have never been offshore have trouble catching on. You have to be brought up in the industry or have been around it all your life to really have a handle on what goes on out there.
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