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Started By
Message
Sportscenter crunched the #'s on Belichick's call
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:12 pm
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:12 pm
They showed an 80.5% chance of winning by going for it.
79.0% chance of winning by punting it.
Bill Belichick did what head coaches are supposed to do, he gave his team the best chance to win.
79.0% chance of winning by punting it.
Bill Belichick did what head coaches are supposed to do, he gave his team the best chance to win.
7
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:13 pm to Choupique19
And he fricking FAILED
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:13 pm to Choupique19
so there is only a 20% chance of the colts winning if Belichek doesnt convert?
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:14 pm to TruLsu
Nope.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:15 pm to Choupique19
I'm sure he knew those numbers ahead of time.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:17 pm to mattz1122
quote:
They showed an 80.5% chance of winning by going for it.
79.0% chance of winning by punting it.
Bill Belichick did what head coaches are supposed to do, he gave his team the best chance to win.
I'm sure Bill Belichick has a Colts vs. Patriots computer program too and he had his assistant give him the breakdown during the game.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:18 pm to Choupique19
quote:
They showed an 80.5% chance of winning by going for it.
79.0% chance of winning by punting it.
how did they arrive at 80.5% by going for it?
is there a number for going for and failing to convert? what are the odds of winning then?
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:20 pm to TruLsu
quote:
so there is only a 20% chance of the colts winning if Belichek doesnt convert?
I'm sure this math is based on generic stats and doesn't take into account actual opponents or anything like that.
And no..you suck at math because that doesn't hold up
This post was edited on 11/16/09 at 5:21 pm
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:20 pm to Choupique19
By not making it everybodys going to say it was stupid. I was amazed that he went for it.
But he was playing to win. He wasn't playing to not lose. And if Faulk doesn't bobble it, everyone is sucking his dick.
It turned out to be a bad call, but anybody that at any point last night said "Belichick is an idiot" should be banned from ever talking about football again.
But he was playing to win. He wasn't playing to not lose. And if Faulk doesn't bobble it, everyone is sucking his dick.
It turned out to be a bad call, but anybody that at any point last night said "Belichick is an idiot" should be banned from ever talking about football again.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:21 pm to Powerman
bellycheck should do some crunches
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:22 pm to Powerman
quote:
And no..you suck at math because that doesn't hold up
obviously it doesnt hold up, i wasnt stating i crunched the number, i was basically implying that they should have done the % for if he doesnt get the first down what the odds for pats to win then.. i guess i should have been a little more clear with my post
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:23 pm to el tigre
quote:
how did they arrive at 80.5% by going for it?
is there a number for going for and failing to convert? what are the odds of winning then?
It basically works like this
You have a % chance of making it
Then you have 2 different % chances of winning based on conversion or no conversion
I'd say that Sportscenter sucks terribly at math because they're saying that the conversion rate on 4th and 2 is greater than 80.5% (You'd have to multiply this by the % chance they win if they converted)
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:24 pm to el tigre
quote:
how did they arrive at 80.5% by going for it?
Probably by taking the percentage of making it when going for it on 4th and 2
And the percentage of not giving up a TD from the 30 yard line.
And then create a formula to combine the two
This post was edited on 11/16/09 at 5:25 pm
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:24 pm to Choupique19
Taking that chance and giving Peyton Manning the ball on the 30 winning by only six is not putting your team in the best situation to win.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:24 pm to Powerman
espn really needs to calm down about all of this shite. especially when they say things like "this play will be discussed for decades"
Please it was a relatively meaningless regular season. If it had happened in the playoffs yea it would go down as history, but this will likely be forgotten down the road.
Please it was a relatively meaningless regular season. If it had happened in the playoffs yea it would go down as history, but this will likely be forgotten down the road.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:25 pm to MrPappagiorgio
quote:
Taking that chance and giving Peyton Manning the ball on the 30 winning by only six is not putting your team in the best situation to win.
Getting the first down and not giving Manning th eball at all sure as hell does
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:26 pm to DrSteveBrule
quote:
I'm sure Bill Belichick has a Colts vs. Patriots computer program too and he had his assistant give him the breakdown during the game.
They forgot to run the "Annexation of Puerto Rico" play.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:28 pm to 1ranter1
sure, but Id rather take my chances with Peyton 80 yards from the endzone with no timeouts.
Then again Im not a Super Bowl winning head coach, so idk shite.
Then again Im not a Super Bowl winning head coach, so idk shite.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:30 pm to List Eater
I'm watching espn and I didn't see those figures.
Only figures I saw were the pats percentage on the season of getting the first with 2 yards to go vs the colts percentage of stopping a team with 2 yards to go for the first.
The percentages stood in the favor of going for it
Only figures I saw were the pats percentage on the season of getting the first with 2 yards to go vs the colts percentage of stopping a team with 2 yards to go for the first.
The percentages stood in the favor of going for it
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:37 pm to Powerman
quote:no, there is also the chance the colts don't score if you dont make it
I'd say that Sportscenter sucks terribly at math because they're saying that the conversion rate on 4th and 2 is greater than 80.5% (You'd have to multiply this by the % chance they win if they converted)
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