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Official BCS Thread - 11/15/09
Posted on 11/15/09 at 8:55 pm
Posted on 11/15/09 at 8:55 pm
BCS Standings
LSU needs help, but still has a legit chance at a BCS bowl if they win out. They would likely be a shoe-in, if it weren’t for the “max 2 teams per conference” rule, but that is the rule. If Bama slips up against Auburn and then again to Florida, LSU would likely get the BCS invite despite Bama’s head-to-head victory. The Sugar (or any bowl) wouldn’t want a Bama team that just lost 2 games (and went to the Sugar the previous year). Florida would be in a similar position if they lose two…but Florida might be more likely than Bama to get the nod over LSU. Otherwise a 10-2 LSU team goes to the Cap one Bowl and at 9-3 likely the Cap One or Cotton.
The National Championship picture is clear for now: Texas vs. SEC Champ, but could get fuzzy if Texas chokes to A&M or the Big12 CG. TCU is currently in 3rd, but I am fairly confident Cincy passes them with a win over Pitt. It is already close and it is the one big win Cincy is missing. Cincinnati played in a very respectable Big East this year with a decent OOC schedule.
Georgia Tech is sitting at #7, unnoticed. But they are a serious darkhorse imo. Ga Tech plays 3 SEC teams OOC, with Georgia left as well as the ACC CG. If Texas and Cincy BOTH lose, Ga Tech could make it interesting. They would almost definitely pass Boise, and while TCU probably edges them out, it might be close. My pecking order:
1. Undefeated SEC
2. Undefeated Texas
3. Undefeated Cincinnati
4. Undefeated TCU
5. 1-loss Ga Tech
6. 1-loss SEC (It is really tough to tell what would happen if Bama lost to Auburn and then beat Florida; I think their computer score keeps them low but they could be much higher than I am giving them credit for)
7. Undefeated Boise
Thoughts? I may move this to the MSB in the coming weeks.
LSU needs help, but still has a legit chance at a BCS bowl if they win out. They would likely be a shoe-in, if it weren’t for the “max 2 teams per conference” rule, but that is the rule. If Bama slips up against Auburn and then again to Florida, LSU would likely get the BCS invite despite Bama’s head-to-head victory. The Sugar (or any bowl) wouldn’t want a Bama team that just lost 2 games (and went to the Sugar the previous year). Florida would be in a similar position if they lose two…but Florida might be more likely than Bama to get the nod over LSU. Otherwise a 10-2 LSU team goes to the Cap one Bowl and at 9-3 likely the Cap One or Cotton.
The National Championship picture is clear for now: Texas vs. SEC Champ, but could get fuzzy if Texas chokes to A&M or the Big12 CG. TCU is currently in 3rd, but I am fairly confident Cincy passes them with a win over Pitt. It is already close and it is the one big win Cincy is missing. Cincinnati played in a very respectable Big East this year with a decent OOC schedule.
Georgia Tech is sitting at #7, unnoticed. But they are a serious darkhorse imo. Ga Tech plays 3 SEC teams OOC, with Georgia left as well as the ACC CG. If Texas and Cincy BOTH lose, Ga Tech could make it interesting. They would almost definitely pass Boise, and while TCU probably edges them out, it might be close. My pecking order:
1. Undefeated SEC
2. Undefeated Texas
3. Undefeated Cincinnati
4. Undefeated TCU
5. 1-loss Ga Tech
6. 1-loss SEC (It is really tough to tell what would happen if Bama lost to Auburn and then beat Florida; I think their computer score keeps them low but they could be much higher than I am giving them credit for)
7. Undefeated Boise
Thoughts? I may move this to the MSB in the coming weeks.
6
Posted on 11/15/09 at 8:58 pm to lsumatt
Damn, you got a 1 loss SEC behind a 1 loss G-tech? Other than that I agree with everything..
Posted on 11/15/09 at 8:59 pm to lsumatt
Let's hope Bama or Florida loses (or both) then have the same team that loses lose again in the SECCG. If LSU beats Ole Miss and Arkansas, the Sugar Bowl would be a hell of an accomplishment for this team.
Posted on 11/15/09 at 8:59 pm to Tigerbait337
quote:
Damn, you got a 1 loss SEC behind a 1 loss G-tech? Other than that I agree with everything..
Yeah, I put that there mostly to get a rise out of people. 1-loss SEC probably goes over Ga Tech, although Florida may be worse off.
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:00 pm to Tigerbait337
quote:
Damn, you got a 1 loss SEC behind a 1 loss G-tech? Other than that I agree with everything..
It's all about timing and way you lose.
If either Florida or Alabama put a stomping on the other they'll take a good size hit in the polls IMHO
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:01 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Yeah, I put that there mostly to get a rise out of people. 1-loss SEC probably goes over Ga Tech, although Florida may be worse off.
To be honest, I think if Bama loses to Auburn, they would still be higher than G-tech. Them winning against UF in the SEC Championship would put them past TCU but not Cinci (depending on how well they perform against Pitt though).Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:04 pm to Tigerbait337
Yeah, I wrote that SEC would be lower and then realized I was full of it, but said screw it. I am just a little annoyed at everyone that thought 1-loss SEC would go above undefeated Iowa (which was BS). I do think Cincy even goes over 1-loss SEC though
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:04 pm to lsudiva2010
quote:
If either Florida or Alabama put a stomping on the other they'll take a good size hit in the polls IMHO
I'm pretty sure Matt's ranking them in the order they'd go to the NCG, not the polls (i.e. if Bama loses to Auburn, then beats UF, that's the pecking order there'd be).
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:04 pm to lsumatt
quote:
I do think Cincy even goes over 1-loss SEC though
I agree.
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:42 pm to lsudiva2010
I say lets FOCUS on winning @ Ole Myth; Thats going to be hard enough as it is!!
All we can do at this point is just WIN out and let the cards fall where they may!
No way any shape do I see us going to a BCS bowl, I think we are looking at a trip to Fla. for the Cap One bowl against a Penn State or Iowa
All we can do at this point is just WIN out and let the cards fall where they may!
No way any shape do I see us going to a BCS bowl, I think we are looking at a trip to Fla. for the Cap One bowl against a Penn State or Iowa
Posted on 11/15/09 at 11:13 pm to lsumatt
Great post - speculation at it's finest - what the Rant is all about.....
Thoughts? OK. I don't foresee Auburn beating Alabama. Did you notice Miss. St. only scoring 3 points on 'Bama? Remind you of Arkansas only scoring 7 points on them? I then project Alabama to beat Florida in the SEC championship game - which, by your logic (and mine) puts them in the BCS NC game.
BTW, Auburn is very good. We did super to beat them. They will hang with Alabama, but in the end they will succomb.
What this turns into is your projected BCS 1 vs. 2 (SEC Champion vs. Texas) for the mythical BCS NC. Why Texas? Who will beat them? Not A&M. Not Nebraska.
Anything else is further speculation. Which is fun, 'cause that's what it's all about. Love it. I can say that I'm also very impressed by TCU (please, LSU, do not draw these guys in any bowl), Cincinatti, Boise State, and even Ga. Tech. (yea, yea, I know we pounded them last year).
So, what bowl? Too early to tell. Let's see how we do against a very good Ole Miss team and then a potentially dangerous Arkansas team....
Assuming these are both wins (you know the joke about "assume"), a 10-2 LSU team could then be matched against any of the above or Iowa (again). Anything beyond this is:
Prognostication. Prognostication - is leaving me ... A Carly Simon song (or is that "Anticipation"?). Dunno..... J/K.
Love speculation. I think LSU vs. Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Far fetched - yea, probably. But, still too early to tell....
Thoughts? OK. I don't foresee Auburn beating Alabama. Did you notice Miss. St. only scoring 3 points on 'Bama? Remind you of Arkansas only scoring 7 points on them? I then project Alabama to beat Florida in the SEC championship game - which, by your logic (and mine) puts them in the BCS NC game.
BTW, Auburn is very good. We did super to beat them. They will hang with Alabama, but in the end they will succomb.
What this turns into is your projected BCS 1 vs. 2 (SEC Champion vs. Texas) for the mythical BCS NC. Why Texas? Who will beat them? Not A&M. Not Nebraska.
Anything else is further speculation. Which is fun, 'cause that's what it's all about. Love it. I can say that I'm also very impressed by TCU (please, LSU, do not draw these guys in any bowl), Cincinatti, Boise State, and even Ga. Tech. (yea, yea, I know we pounded them last year).
So, what bowl? Too early to tell. Let's see how we do against a very good Ole Miss team and then a potentially dangerous Arkansas team....
Assuming these are both wins (you know the joke about "assume"), a 10-2 LSU team could then be matched against any of the above or Iowa (again). Anything beyond this is:
Prognostication. Prognostication - is leaving me ... A Carly Simon song (or is that "Anticipation"?). Dunno..... J/K.
Love speculation. I think LSU vs. Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Far fetched - yea, probably. But, still too early to tell....
Posted on 11/16/09 at 8:37 am to lsumatt
I think Auburn has a realistic chance to beat Bama. I don't think they will, but certainly could. Auburn has played very well at times and Bama is very beatable imo
This post was edited on 11/16/09 at 8:40 am
Posted on 11/16/09 at 8:45 am to TaserTiger
quote:
Love speculation. I think LSU vs. Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Far fetched - yea, probably
Seems near impossible...
Most likely is obviously the SEC champ goes to the NC game and the runner up to the Sugar Bowl.
I guess it's possible if the SEC champ dropped a game prior to the ccg (sending them to the Sugar)... but that would really mean both the sec ccg winner and loser probably had to stumble once prior to the championship game... because otherwise LSU doesn't make a BCS bowl
Posted on 11/16/09 at 8:48 am to molsusports
Why would the winner have to stumble? If AU and UF both beat Bama, LSU likely goes to a BCS bowl.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 8:53 am to lsumatt
if the winner wins out they go to the NC game and the other sec team to make the bcs goes to the Sugar
Fiesta would seem out of the question
Fiesta would seem out of the question
Posted on 11/16/09 at 8:54 am to lsumatt
what happens if:
texas loses a game (a&m or big 12 cg);
bama and fla win out regular season;
bama beats fla in sec cg (in a great, close game);
is uf's bcs cushion so big that it would be possible that they would hold on to # 2 and there would be a rematch in the bcs cg? (if so, the system crashes and playoffs may be really considered...)
(caveat: i don't think this can happen, just asking for a comment from someone "in the know".)
texas loses a game (a&m or big 12 cg);
bama and fla win out regular season;
bama beats fla in sec cg (in a great, close game);
is uf's bcs cushion so big that it would be possible that they would hold on to # 2 and there would be a rematch in the bcs cg? (if so, the system crashes and playoffs may be really considered...)
(caveat: i don't think this can happen, just asking for a comment from someone "in the know".)
Posted on 11/16/09 at 8:57 am to molsusports
I'd say the chances break down something close to this, assuming that JJ gets healthy by Saturday:
Sugar - 5%
Cap One - 40%
Cotton - 45%
Peach - 10%
Sugar - 5%
Cap One - 40%
Cotton - 45%
Peach - 10%
Posted on 11/16/09 at 8:58 am to LSU Patrick
Be sure to publish that in the next Journal of Arbitrary Statistics
Posted on 11/16/09 at 8:59 am to molsusports
I know
Posted on 11/16/09 at 9:31 am to LSU Patrick
All we want for Christmas if FREAKIN' USC TROJANS, ANYWHERE, ANY PLACE, ANY TIME!!!!! Do you think we could buy Florida State out of the Emerald Bowl? :jump1: :jump2:
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