How does the government know how many people are self deporting?

The "self-deportation" figures released by Kristi Noem’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have been widely sussed out as statistically manipulated. The numbers—which claim over 2 million self-deportations since January 20, 2025—rely on a massive logical leap and a specific, flawed benchmark.

Why the Figures are Nonsense

The primary reason these figures are considered "lying numbers" is attribution bias. DHS is claiming credit for every person who leaves the United States for any reason—retirement, family visits, or natural churn—and labeling them as "self-deported" due to the administration's "crackdown."

The "CBP Home" Discrepancy: While Noem claimed millions were leaving, internal data for the CBP Home App (the digital portal for "Operation Homecoming") showed only 356 people had actually used the app to register their departure in its first five weeks.

Zero Verification: There is no physical tracking of these 2 million individuals. Unlike formal "removals" (deportations), "self-deportations" are not processed at the border; they are estimated based on population declines in surveys, which doesn't account for people simply moving "into the shadows" or changing how they identify to surveyors.

The Statistical Benchmark: CPS vs. Reality

To calculate these figures, Noem’s DHS utilized a specific statistical benchmark: The Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly household survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The Methodology: They took the "Foreign-Born" population totals from the CPS and compared them month-over-month. When the survey showed a dip in the total number of foreign-born individuals (e.g., a drop of 625,000 in a single month), DHS recorded that entire delta as a "success" for their enforcement policies.

The Flaw: The CPS has a high margin of error for sub-populations. A drop in the survey often reflects "sampling noise" or seasonal migration patterns rather than actual permanent departures.

Broad Categorisation: The benchmark used doesn't distinguish between legal residents, naturalised citizens, and illegal immigrants. By using the "Overall Foreign-Born" decline, the DHS is essentially counting a legal immigrant moving back to their home country for retirement as a "self-deportation" triggered by Noem’s policies.

You could start with the number of wired money transfers heading south weekly. Embassy reports. Modelo sales lol

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wired money transfers heading south

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Why aren’t we taxing those at 100%?

I really don’t know if our economic system is conducive to keeping a country like ours intact.

No number the government spits out is accurate.

None
Nada
Zilch

You laugh at me but not the 2+ million figure.

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Are the numbers real and verifiable or estimated?

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Any time you leave the country, you have to present your papers to Customs and Border Patrol. What they're counting on the other side of that is anybody's guess.

Can it be verified? Absolutely! They know if you have left. They know if you are still gone. They know if you have come back.

I don't know how accurate the records are; however, it is my understanding that self-deporting illegals CAN apply for a free flight and a $1,000 (actually, it is $2600). So, it could be all that accepted that deal.

LINK

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Only if you come back claiming "asylum" rather than swimming across the Rio Grande and digging under a fence. And use your real name. Both coming and going.

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Yeah, if it's illegal, coming or going, they're not registering on the ticker. If they're leaving, most of them are going to take the path of least resistance. Swimming across the Rio Grande and dealing with that part of the country afoot isn't high on the list of options for those leaving.