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Why is their such a stigma against chalk picks?
Posted on 3/22/26 at 11:11 pm
Posted on 3/22/26 at 11:11 pm
If you're playing in a competitive pool, one with actual money on the line, you're an idiot if your bracket ISN'T mostly chalk.
Congrats on honorably picking Colgate A&M Tech to go to the elite 8 I guess.
Congrats on honorably picking Colgate A&M Tech to go to the elite 8 I guess.
11
Posted on 3/23/26 at 6:54 am to StansberryRules
I don’t think that’s the case. The key is picking the right upsets in the early rounds. With a few exceptions, they rarely advance far.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 7:01 am to tress4pres
quote:
The key is picking the right upsets in the early rounds.
Picking High Point in the first round means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of the bracket pool. As long as you have your champion and most of your final four picks then you have a great chance at winning. Chalky picks for winning the championship like Duke won't win you anything. Picking Michigan or Illinois will though.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 7:03 am to tzimme4
Well someone has to win which means early rounds make a difference. It’s simple math.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 7:08 am to tress4pres
I can be in 25th place out of 50 entries for example but if Michigan wins the championship. And it's not against Duke then I'll likely win because I would have jumped all the Duke and Arizona entries. Elite 8 and Final Four picks matter way more than the first two rounds.
If you have picks like Illinois instead of Houston that's how you make up for the earlier rounds.
If you have picks like Illinois instead of Houston that's how you make up for the earlier rounds.
This post was edited on 3/23/26 at 7:10 am
Posted on 3/23/26 at 8:02 am to StansberryRules
Last year, I had Houston beating Florida and I picked all but 1 correct round 1 winner. I got over 90% of the picks correct, had 13/16 in sweet 16, 7/8 of the elite 8, 4/4 FF, both national finalists, and still lost because of the weight given to picking the champion.
Upset picks should be weighted for more points in standard scoring formulas.
Upset picks should be weighted for more points in standard scoring formulas.
This post was edited on 3/23/26 at 9:20 am
Posted on 3/23/26 at 8:05 am to StansberryRules
It can have a huge impact if the scoring system isn't just 1 point for 64, 2 for 32 etc.
If you do round * seed for example, then picking High Point to make the sweet 16 could get you 12+24 (36) points, while picking Arkansas to make the Elite 8 would get you 4+8+16 or only 28 points.
That makes it more fun to pick the "right" upsets early while picking the correct chalk late
If you do round * seed for example, then picking High Point to make the sweet 16 could get you 12+24 (36) points, while picking Arkansas to make the Elite 8 would get you 4+8+16 or only 28 points.
That makes it more fun to pick the "right" upsets early while picking the correct chalk late
Posted on 3/23/26 at 8:06 am to Buckeye06
Picking favorites makes more sense now that ever before. Now that NIl and the portal has killed Cinderella.
This post was edited on 3/23/26 at 8:07 am
Posted on 3/23/26 at 8:21 am to StansberryRules
I've won my pool two years in a row going 100% chalk
Posted on 3/23/26 at 10:41 am to Ostrich
Yeah, I get why you do it, but only top teams winning takes some of the fun out of it.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 10:43 am to Ostrich
How big of pool is it?
Any decently big pool, and chalk won't win it.
Any decently big pool, and chalk won't win it.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 10:58 am to StansberryRules
quote:
Why is their such a stigma against chalk picks?
If you look at there brackets, most winners will have mostly chalk with a few upsets sprinkled here and their.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:22 am to StansberryRules
Your best chance to win a medium size pool is to pick like the 5th or 6th favorite. I’m in second last out of 21 in my pool, but I’m the only one that picked Houston so I am still live. I’d be toast if I picked Duke.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:26 am to StansberryRules
It depends on how they calculate scoring.
I've won my office pool three of the last five or six years with a simple strategy - go mostly chalk but try predict the best "darkhorse" team that everyone is overlooking to win it all (I hit on UVA, UCONN and Florida).
Most people latch onto the heavy favorites so when one of them wins it comes down to who picked the right upsets or the right Cinderellas, which is going to be random.
But again, it depends on scoring. Some methods reward upsets more than just advancements.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:26 am to TheWalrus
You can either pick a heavy favorite, in which case you need to do well in the other rounds, as they serve as a tiebreaker fro the numerous people who will get the champion correctly.
Or you can like you said, try to pick a dark horse champion that if they win the tournament, you basically instantly win because nobody else had them.
Or you can like you said, try to pick a dark horse champion that if they win the tournament, you basically instantly win because nobody else had them.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 12:29 pm to castorinho
quote:
Any decently big pool, and chalk won't win it.
Just like 20 people at $20 buy-in. Friends/family etc. Definitely takes the fun out of it, but you play to win the game
Posted on 3/23/26 at 12:40 pm to Ostrich
Pools should make you pick a certain number of upsets or at least one 12 or lower, for example…
Posted on 3/23/26 at 12:46 pm to StansberryRules
I enjoy playing survivor format. You get to pick one team per day of the tournament, but each team can only be used once. Very hard when it gets to the round of 16
Posted on 3/23/26 at 12:58 pm to StansberryRules
I always do 2 brackets.
One that I want to happen. Mostly fun, lots of upsets
One that I think will happen. Mostly chalk, though I did have Iowa in sweet 16 and High point over Wisconsin
One that I want to happen. Mostly fun, lots of upsets
One that I think will happen. Mostly chalk, though I did have Iowa in sweet 16 and High point over Wisconsin
Posted on 3/23/26 at 5:22 pm to StansberryRules
It depends on the rules of the pool, I guess.
The best one I remember playing in just went 1-2-3-4-5 for the round points, with an extra point for an upset in the first round (8/9 didn't count).
You actually had to know a little bit to win.
The best one I remember playing in just went 1-2-3-4-5 for the round points, with an extra point for an upset in the first round (8/9 didn't count).
You actually had to know a little bit to win.
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