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Started By
Message
Will we ever get another major market crash/depression?
Posted on 2/12/26 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 2/12/26 at 3:27 pm
I'm talking a real one that lasts years.. bears in the driver's seat and all that jazz
It seems like our government will never allow it to happen. Money printer goes brrr anytime it looks like one might be happening
It seems like our government will never allow it to happen. Money printer goes brrr anytime it looks like one might be happening
9
Posted on 2/12/26 at 3:45 pm to Rankest
Sounds like someones sitting on a lot of cash. 
To answer your question probably take some type of military action between China and US to cause a big market dive.
To answer your question probably take some type of military action between China and US to cause a big market dive.This post was edited on 2/12/26 at 3:48 pm
Posted on 2/12/26 at 3:52 pm to Rankest
Of course we will, it has in the past and will in the future, it’s part of the process of economic cycles, some more significant than others, but it absolutely will happen. The money printing may in fact be the next reason why we have a significant, long term down cycle.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 4:07 pm to Rankest
Absolutely. I think it will be sooner rather than later, . But I won’t try to time it. For that reason, I’m in mostly large, established companies with strong balance sheets.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 4:39 pm to Rankest
I tend to believe with MMT being in the driver seat, the only relief valve they cant fix will be inflation. They can plug every other hole, but all roads will lead to inflation. When pressed to choose the least painful path, inflation will always be the choice for humans as it has been for empire after empire. (See ray dalio)
I'm not quite sure what to expect a market crash caused by inflation to look like. Seems like it would be fine for asset prices and then it would just be the end. Another question is how does that end come if every other currency is also experiencing relative inflation.
I'm trying to find a MERV chart that goes back to the 1980s.
I'm not quite sure what to expect a market crash caused by inflation to look like. Seems like it would be fine for asset prices and then it would just be the end. Another question is how does that end come if every other currency is also experiencing relative inflation.
I'm trying to find a MERV chart that goes back to the 1980s.
This post was edited on 2/12/26 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 2/12/26 at 4:45 pm to Rankest
Yes, but I have been inspired by the way many people no longer panic sell every time the market tanks, like it did after Liberation Day last year. Seems like the overall patience of equity investors gives the market more stability these days.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 6:07 pm to FLObserver
quote:“I’m always fully invested. It’s a great feeling to be caught with your pants up.” – Peter Lynch, Former Manager of Magellan Fund at Fidelity.
Sounds like someones sitting on a lot of cash.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 6:09 pm to Rankest
Very likely, in fact it is almost certain. There are a whole lot more investors in the market buying and holding long term through 401ks now, though, which helps keep the market up. That often gets overlooked.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 6:31 pm to Rankest
Yes we will.. been through a lot in my time and then zero growth for ten years ….
Never once did I predict it.. never once was govt able to stop it .. they throw out things to try to reduce it…… we have interest rates so low for so long … idk..
young .. stay in market.. dollar cost average.. older ..diversify income streams..
A few big drops back had an older guy look at me when I was scared.. he was already older.. diversified.. and said should be a good time to get a deal on a luxury car and vacation condo in a few more months..
Fwiw..
Since 1929: There have been 15 bear markets where the S&P 500 fell by at least 30%.
Since 1950: These severe drops have become rarer, occurring only 6 times in the last 75 years.
Average Frequency: On average, a decline of this magnitude occurs roughly once every 8 to 10 years
Never once did I predict it.. never once was govt able to stop it .. they throw out things to try to reduce it…… we have interest rates so low for so long … idk..
young .. stay in market.. dollar cost average.. older ..diversify income streams..
A few big drops back had an older guy look at me when I was scared.. he was already older.. diversified.. and said should be a good time to get a deal on a luxury car and vacation condo in a few more months..
Fwiw..
Since 1929: There have been 15 bear markets where the S&P 500 fell by at least 30%.
Since 1950: These severe drops have become rarer, occurring only 6 times in the last 75 years.
Average Frequency: On average, a decline of this magnitude occurs roughly once every 8 to 10 years
This post was edited on 2/12/26 at 6:57 pm
Posted on 2/12/26 at 6:32 pm to Grooler
Liberation Day last year…
That was not even a pimple..
That was not even a pimple..
Posted on 2/12/26 at 7:18 pm to Pendulum
quote:
ray dalio
GOAT
Posted on 2/12/26 at 7:54 pm to Rankest
quote:
I'm talking a real one that lasts years.. bears in the driver's seat and all that jazz
Is there a crash that didn't recover in 2 years?
Posted on 2/12/26 at 8:44 pm to meansonny
Look at March 2000 through March of 2014.. you will see two drops … and zero growth between 2000-2013….
We struggled through the first one and thought we were recovering.. then lost again..
But if you just dollar cost averaged in … it worked out in the long run.. but was painful..
We struggled through the first one and thought we were recovering.. then lost again..
But if you just dollar cost averaged in … it worked out in the long run.. but was painful..
This post was edited on 2/12/26 at 8:46 pm
Posted on 2/12/26 at 9:22 pm to Thecoz
Dow Jones is at 10k in 2000 and 15k in 2013.
I have no clue what you are looking at. Zero growth?
I have no clue what you are looking at. Zero growth?
Posted on 2/12/26 at 9:43 pm to meansonny
Look at sp 500…l
But if want Dow
Dow Jan 2000–11500
Dow oct 2011—11100
But if want Dow
Dow Jan 2000–11500
Dow oct 2011—11100
This post was edited on 2/12/26 at 10:22 pm
Posted on 2/12/26 at 10:36 pm to Thecoz
Every crash has a recovery shortly thereafter.
My post went completely over your head.
2001. 2002. 2008. 2020. Sometimes, the recovery is just a few months. The worst recovery was about 27 months.
If you can't wait 2 years to recoup your losses, then you shouldn't be in the stock market.
My post went completely over your head.
2001. 2002. 2008. 2020. Sometimes, the recovery is just a few months. The worst recovery was about 27 months.
If you can't wait 2 years to recoup your losses, then you shouldn't be in the stock market.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 10:43 pm to meansonny
Well I guess you answered your own question
“ Is there a crash that didn't recover in 2 years”
Lots of people were retiring between 2000-2013…. And switching from growth portfolios to income portfolios.. I impacted their retirement..
“ Is there a crash that didn't recover in 2 years”
Lots of people were retiring between 2000-2013…. And switching from growth portfolios to income portfolios.. I impacted their retirement..
Posted on 2/13/26 at 5:21 am to Rankest
15% haircut from all-time highs is SP 6000. I think we see it this yr.
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