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Started By
Message
Are we expecting further rate cuts?
Posted on 12/1/25 at 10:40 am
Posted on 12/1/25 at 10:40 am
I know a few of you guys are plugged in. What are you expecting on that front?
6
Posted on 12/1/25 at 10:42 am to Rankest
85% chance of a .25 cut in Dec. that's the expectation
Posted on 12/1/25 at 10:56 am to Rankest
One this month for sure. Question now is how many in 2026.
There will be a new chairman in May and we know he'll be dovish.
There will be a new chairman in May and we know he'll be dovish.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 11:05 am to Rankest
Yes. Trump wants it and the economy needs it. Just .25 though.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 11:44 am to Rankest
As others have said, as long as Trump is in the White House, there will be rate cuts, justified or not
Posted on 12/1/25 at 4:10 pm to CecilShortsHisPants
quote:Others have not said this. You have said this. Trump doesn't control the Fed.
As others have said, as long as Trump is in the White House, there will be rate cuts, justified or not
Posted on 12/1/25 at 4:19 pm to Rankest
Yes we are. With at least 4 in 2026
Posted on 12/1/25 at 4:22 pm to RoyalWe
quote:
Trump doesn't control the Fed.
He will in May when he appoints a new chairman.
Plus, Powell's term as a Gov. ends in 2028 but traditionally retiring fed chairs who still have some time left on there original appointment just resign. I expect Powell will be no different so Trump will have another vacancy to fill.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 4:23 pm to Rankest
Posted on 12/1/25 at 4:48 pm to bigjoe1
quote:Yeah, Trump thought that as well when he nominated Jerome Powell. How'd that work out for him? The point is that you don't know. Many Presidents have tried to influence the Fed -- some more than others. Trump is definitely one who cares about the issue and will use whatever influence he has to get them to cut. Whether or not he'll get everything that he wants (e.g. DEEP cuts) remains to be seen.
He will in May when he appoints a new chairman.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 6:27 pm to RoyalWe
quote:
RoyalWe
I’m not sure what you’re arguing? Trump, much more than all others, has a significant role in future fed decisions. Whether it comes to fruition or not is to be determined
Posted on 12/1/25 at 7:25 pm to oneg8rh8r
Is everyone else excited for inflation? I know I am.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 8:18 pm to CecilShortsHisPants
I’m arguing that Trump nominated Jerome Powell, who has displeased Trump mightily. Why? Because Trump does not control the Fed despite who he nominated. It should be self-evident what I am arguing.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 8:57 pm to RoyalWe
I'd imagine everybody that was interviewed for the position knew the correct answer to the question about lowering interest rates.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 9:10 pm to RoyalWe
quote:Yea, Trump has admitted Powell was a mistake and pledged to not make that mistake again. It’s likely the next chairman will be a Trump loyalist who will cut aggressivley regardless of the environment. Do you really not see this coming?
I’m arguing that Trump nominated Jerome Powell, who has displeased Trump mightily. Why? Because Trump does not control the Fed despite who he nominated. It should be self-evident what I am arguing.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 9:51 pm to CecilShortsHisPants
quote:
Yea, Trump has admitted Powell was a mistake and pledged to not make that mistake again. It’s likely the next chairman will be a Trump loyalist who will cut aggressivley regardless of the environment. Do you really not see this coming?
Yeah, another institution politicized. Now just imagine what the Dems will do with a weaponized DOJ and a compliant Fed when they are in power. Never assume the other party will never be in power again.
This post was edited on 12/2/25 at 1:02 am
Posted on 12/1/25 at 11:30 pm to CecilShortsHisPants
quote:Yes, it's more likely because he learned from his first administration. What are we arguing about here? I'm just saying Trump doesn't control the Fed. He still won't, regardless of who he nominates. If you want to say "de facto", well, maybe? You don't know. I don't know. Trump doesn't know. The Pope doesn't know. Sponge Bob doesn't know. K-Pop Demon Hunters don't know. Rumplestiltskin doesn't know. Your mom doesn't know. Your dog doesn't know. Can you not understand that?
Do you really not see this coming?
Posted on 12/2/25 at 12:02 am to RoyalWe
quote:
I'm just saying Trump doesn't control the Fed. He still won't, regardless of who he nominates
That’s where we disagree, he is being transparent about this exact scenario. Whoever he appoints, likely Hassett, will face significant political pressure to drive rates downward. I think it’s more likely than not that he will fall in line, for better or worse.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 12:08 am to CecilShortsHisPants
quote:As I type this, the projection is over 80% that rates will be cut in December. I'm not disagreeing with your assessment that Hassett (or whomever) will have kissed the ring and told Trump what he wants to hear and will likely do what Trump wants (at least initially). It's not an opinion that the Fed Chair can say or do whatever he wants without fear of direct reprisal. It's a fact. If you want to ignore that, fine. You win.
That’s where we disagree, he is being transparent about this exact scenario. Whoever he appoints, likely Hassett, will face significant political pressure to drive rates downward. I think it’s more likely than not that he will fall in line, for better or worse.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 12:19 am to RoyalWe
Sounds like we’re on the same page then 
I expect rate cuts purely due to political pressure. It’s clear where we disagree is whether or not the appointee will bend the knee. I tend to think he will. But of course, like you said, who knows?
I expect rate cuts purely due to political pressure. It’s clear where we disagree is whether or not the appointee will bend the knee. I tend to think he will. But of course, like you said, who knows?
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