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Experience of championship coaches since BCS era...

Posted on 10/26/25 at 11:10 pm
Posted by RunRunIncompletePunt
Member since Sep 2025
206 posts
Posted on 10/26/25 at 11:10 pm
Experience as head coach of a school before season winning a title:

1998, Phillip Fulmer - 6 years
1999, Bobby Bowden - 27 years (33 before BCSC)
2000, Bob Stoops - 1 year
2001, Larry Coker - 0 years
2002, Jim Tressel - 16 years
2003, Nick Saban - 9 years
2004, Pete Carroll - 7 years
2005, Mack Brown - 21 years
2006, Urban Meyer - 5 years
2007, Les Miles - 6 years
2008, Urban Meyer - see above
2009, Nick Saban - see above
2010, Gene Chizik - 3 years
2011, Nick Saban - see above
2012, Nick Saban - see above
2013, Jimbo Fisher - 3 years
2014, Urban Meyer - see above
2015, Nick Saban - see above
2016, Dabo Swinney - 8 years
2017, Nick Saban - see above
2018, Dabo Swinney - see above
2019, Ed Orgeron - 7 years
2020, Nick Saban - see above
2021, Kirby Smart - 5 years
2022, Kirby Smart - see above
2023, Jim Harbaugh - 15 years
2024, Ryan Day - 6 years

Average: 8.5 years of HC experience before NC season

Unless we catch lightning in a bottle, the options seem to be either hiring a coach who already has HC experience, or giving a 5-6 year leash on an up-and-coming coordinator.
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
8842 posts
Posted on 10/26/25 at 11:12 pm to
Nick skews this data set tremendously & I hate that.
Posted by Jetstream 2000
Member since Jan 2021
268 posts
Posted on 10/26/25 at 11:12 pm to
NIL and transfer portal have changed the game drastically. These numbers no longer mean that much anymore.
Posted by RunRunIncompletePunt
Member since Sep 2025
206 posts
Posted on 10/26/25 at 11:13 pm to
quote:

Nick skews this data set tremendously & I hate that.

I only averaged the years in bold for that reason.
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
8842 posts
Posted on 10/26/25 at 11:15 pm to
Ah. Good take.
Posted by armytiger96
Member since Sep 2007
2028 posts
Posted on 10/26/25 at 11:20 pm to
quote:

Average: 8.5 years of HC experience before NC season


Now go back and calculate it based on years in program before winning first NC. Most are going to be 3-5 years.
Posted by RunRunIncompletePunt
Member since Sep 2025
206 posts
Posted on 10/26/25 at 11:37 pm to
quote:

Now go back and calculate it based on years in program before winning first NC. Most are going to be 3-5 years.

But they still had the HC before those 3-5 years... which is the point of this thread.

The only coaches who went from coordinator to HC, and won a championship in a short time, are: Bob Stoops, Larry Coker, Gene Chizik, and Jimbo Fisher.

That's not an illustrious group.
Posted by RunRunIncompletePunt
Member since Sep 2025
206 posts
Posted on 10/26/25 at 11:41 pm to
quote:

NIL and transfer portal have changed the game drastically. These numbers no longer mean that much anymore.

NIL started in 2022, the coaches to have won since then are Kirby Smart (5 years), Jim Harbaugh (15 years), and Ryan Day (6 years). That's an average of 8.6 years experience.
Posted by AlwysATgr
Member since Apr 2008
20093 posts
Posted on 10/26/25 at 11:43 pm to
This is great but there are some details that ought to be mentioned.

Examples:
- Coker inherited perhaps the best team ever succeeding Butch Davis. He didn't build that. Les likewise inherited a very healthy program.
- Kirby was like one play away from winning it all in '17.
- Some of these revolve a single player - Cam at Auburn, Jameis at FSU, Vince at UTX.

Stoops at OU is one of the most impressive on that list. Also what Nick did here. He followed 2 losing seasons and only 3 winning seasons in the previous 11 and by Y4, champs.



Posted by tigerfan88
Member since Jan 2008
8699 posts
Posted on 10/26/25 at 11:51 pm to
Ryan day also made the CFB playoff in his first season and Kirby made it in his second. Dan Lanning made it in his third. Marcus Freeman made it in his third.

It doesn’t take that long to build an elite team. I think we’d all be fine being patient for an actual championship if we just had a coach who consistently had us top 10. Hell even top 15.

Kelly was on pace for four straight years of not even being a top 15 team. This narrative that lsu fans are championship or bust within 5 years is bullshite. Let’s start with going 10-2 a couple of times.
Posted by armytiger96
Member since Sep 2007
2028 posts
Posted on 10/27/25 at 12:11 am to
quote:

But they still had the HC before those 3-5 years... which is the point of this thread.


I get that, but the point of your thread is meaningless b/c you have massive outliers in Bobby Bowden, Mack Brown, Jim Tressel etc. Maybe you should consider calculating the median instead of the avg.

You say that the four who did it in 3 or less is not an illustrious group but you're looking at it through the lens of history. You're analyzing data just look at the data. Plus you conveniently left Kirby Smart out of that group. Hell I would even throw Ryan Day in that group b/c he has been in the hunt most of those years.

If you really want to use your data to make a point it should be that 40% of the coaches that won a NC since BCS era had no prior coaching experience and it took an avg of around four years to get their first NC. The coaches who had prior coaching experience typically win a NC by year three.
This post was edited on 10/27/25 at 5:49 am
Posted by coolpapaboze
Parts Unknown
Member since Dec 2006
20639 posts
Posted on 10/27/25 at 6:11 am to
Brian Kelly - N/A
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