40% of US GDP growth this year is AI related

Don’t lose sight of the fact that they are talking about GDP growth, not GDP itself. So nearly 100% of GDP was not AI, then 60% of the growth is not AI. That means AI is minuscule so far. It will become over 100% of GDP growth as AI related GDP grows more than overall GDP. That will happen as AI starts taking over existing GDP. All of this is good news, imo.

I'd like to see how this is measured.

I'd like see who measured it.

my gut, which could be wrong, is that is is more futurist BS.

The AI growth is nowhere near comparable to the 2007 mortgage bubble. The keys are written in his diagrams - cash vs financing.

AI growth is entirely based on the huge amounts of cash generated by the leading tech companies being reinvested in the race for AI. But it’s exchanging actual cash generated in the market. This is mass productivity from years of cash generation and nowhere to put it, now being hyper focused on a new technology

2007 mortgage crisis was the opposite - exchange of financing for other financing and more and more, which resulted in a deadly chain reaction when the first financed mortgages defaulted. All of the financing in the system went bad once the base financing that it was all based on went bad. This was bankers and loan sharks scheming and twisting things and it unraveled on them.

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AI growth is entirely based on the huge amounts of cash generated by the leading tech companies being reinvested in the race for AI.

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OpenAI has yet to make a profit.

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"The AI bubble evidence is now overwhelming. OpenAI needs "trillions" for infrastructure while burning $115 billion through 2029 on $5 billion annual revenue. They're valued at $500 billion having never made a profit. Even their chairman admits "we're in a bubble and a lot of people will lose a lot of money."

The Circular Money Game

Nvidia invests $100 billion in OpenAI, who uses it to buy Nvidia chips. Meta borrows $26 billion for a data center the size of Manhattan. Companies that previously mined crypto are now AI infrastructure plays. This isn't investment, it's musical chairs with trillion-dollar price tags.

The Returns Don't Exist

MIT found 95% of organizations saw zero return on AI investments. Harvard and Stanford discovered employees use AI to create "workslop" that looks productive but accomplishes nothing, costing millions in lost productivity. OpenAI needs customers willing to pay $2,000 monthly subscriptions to justify valuations. For chatbots.

The Infrastructure Fantasy

Bain calculates AI companies need $2 trillion annual revenue by 2030 but will fall $800 billion short. The power requirements alone are impossible. Stargate's first data center in Texas would need multiple nuclear reactors we don't have. We're promising infrastructure that physically cannot exist.

China Just Showed the Risk

DeepSeek's release triggered a trillion-dollar selloff in one day. Nvidia dropped 17% when China proved they could build competitive AI for a fraction of the cost. Markets immediately rallied back, classic bubble behavior where bad news becomes buying opportunities until it doesn't.

My Take

When Sam Altman admits "we're missing something quite important" after hyping GPT-5, when 95% of companies see no ROI, when the financing becomes circular, and when insiders acknowledge the bubble while participating, we're at peak euphoria.

This makes dot-com look rational. At least websites could scale infinitely. AI needs physical infrastructure we cannot build, power grids that don't exist, and customers willing to pay thousands monthly for technology that currently generates "workslop."

The smartest money is already hedging. The rest are hoping to sell to a greater fool before the music stops."