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Message
Retirement goal and how to get there: looking for advice / opinions
Posted on 7/7/25 at 10:42 am
Posted on 7/7/25 at 10:42 am
I am relatively new to the process of managing my own retirement funds, so please bear with me.
I am 56 and would like to retire by 63.
I have around $950k in savings, almost all of it in a 401k.
$200k is in Fidelity's Contrafund, the other $750k is in Brokeragelink.
By retirement age I will have around $340k in equity of current home.
Projected monthly expenses in the neighborhood of $6800 - $7200
Of course I want to grow my savings as much as possible. "Retirement calculators" commonly indicate I'd need $3.2mm for retirement but I think they assume I won't be using my money to make money in retirement. I am okay with risk because I need growth.
My Brokeragelink account is +4.76% in the year-to-date.. that downturn in Feb - April taught me some hard lessons.. one of which being: have to stay tuned in if I have $$ in risky stocks. I lost bigly before I realized what was happening, and by then it was too late to get out. I like the idea of actively managing my money in retirement, but I don't have much time right now to research companies, trends, etc.
$285k of my Brokeragelink is in FBTC currently +16.8%
Couple ideas I had:
Leave the $200k in Contrafund (+17.56% 5-year avg), put $650k in VOO / SPY / some other index ETF and have the remaining $100k on the side for get in / get out situations
Add $300k to the Contrafund, keep the FBTC and put the remaining $450k in an index ETF
Anyway. I'm not well-versed, but I don't like the idea of hiring a money manager. Any ideas or advice would be greatly appreciated.
I am 56 and would like to retire by 63.
I have around $950k in savings, almost all of it in a 401k.
$200k is in Fidelity's Contrafund, the other $750k is in Brokeragelink.
By retirement age I will have around $340k in equity of current home.
Projected monthly expenses in the neighborhood of $6800 - $7200
Of course I want to grow my savings as much as possible. "Retirement calculators" commonly indicate I'd need $3.2mm for retirement but I think they assume I won't be using my money to make money in retirement. I am okay with risk because I need growth.
My Brokeragelink account is +4.76% in the year-to-date.. that downturn in Feb - April taught me some hard lessons.. one of which being: have to stay tuned in if I have $$ in risky stocks. I lost bigly before I realized what was happening, and by then it was too late to get out. I like the idea of actively managing my money in retirement, but I don't have much time right now to research companies, trends, etc.
$285k of my Brokeragelink is in FBTC currently +16.8%
Couple ideas I had:
Leave the $200k in Contrafund (+17.56% 5-year avg), put $650k in VOO / SPY / some other index ETF and have the remaining $100k on the side for get in / get out situations
Add $300k to the Contrafund, keep the FBTC and put the remaining $450k in an index ETF
Anyway. I'm not well-versed, but I don't like the idea of hiring a money manager. Any ideas or advice would be greatly appreciated.
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 11:33 am
Posted on 7/7/25 at 10:47 am to Naked Bootleg
I don’t know, but I do know I’d be terrified to retire at 63 with $1.5mm-$2mm, which is what I assume you will have.
I was thinking about making a thread on this already this morning, but I’m assuming I’m going to spend close to half a mil on elderly care when I get old, and I don’t want to saddle my kids with paying that shite and/or ending up destitute.
Do you really think you can make it for possibly 20-25 years on like a million bucks?
I was thinking about making a thread on this already this morning, but I’m assuming I’m going to spend close to half a mil on elderly care when I get old, and I don’t want to saddle my kids with paying that shite and/or ending up destitute.
Do you really think you can make it for possibly 20-25 years on like a million bucks?
Posted on 7/7/25 at 10:51 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Do you really think you can make it for possibly 20-25 years on like a million bucks?
I basically have a million now and no, that's not what I am saying. I know there are no absolutes or get rich quick schemes, I just want to grow it as much as possible over the next 7 years.
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 10:53 am
Posted on 7/7/25 at 10:55 am to Naked Bootleg
What kind of expenses are you expecting monthly when you retire in 7 years?
In 7 years you could almost double that $950k fully invested, but without knowing your expected expenses by 63 hard to really gauge. Also, will you draw SS at 63 as well, will you need it then?
In 7 years you could almost double that $950k fully invested, but without knowing your expected expenses by 63 hard to really gauge. Also, will you draw SS at 63 as well, will you need it then?
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 10:56 am
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:17 am to Naked Bootleg
Looking at $950,000 over 7 years, if you're in something with returns like Vanguards VGT or Fidelity's FTEC averaging over 20% over the last 10 years; you'd be sitting at $3.4 million in 7 years without additional contributions. Current year to date number isn't fantastic, but the market is the market.
There's definitely opportunity for you to end up in a good place with some luck. There are a lot of factors regarding expenses and medical care and how you can bridge the gap to Medicare since you're looking at calling it a dat at 63. Two years of health insurance can run up to $60k in some cases.
Others may vehemently disagree but I'd recommend that you really assess your risk at this point since you can get to a really secure number without being risky. It's one thing to make a calculated risk, it's another to be risky.
Other advice would be that if you are going to be growth oriented at this point, constantly set stop losses as the stock ascends and have a percentage gain in mind when you make a purchase. Also, set an auto sell for when it hits that number and shift those earnings into an ETF with less risk and go play again with the initial investment.
One hard line piece of advice that I will give. You are at a point where there is no guessing anymore. When you buy something know what you're buying, why you are buying it with a defined exit and pay close attention to your accounts. If you aren't going to monitor it daily or weekly have stop losses and sell orders set immediately after you buy. No playing games with speculative stuff.
There's definitely opportunity for you to end up in a good place with some luck. There are a lot of factors regarding expenses and medical care and how you can bridge the gap to Medicare since you're looking at calling it a dat at 63. Two years of health insurance can run up to $60k in some cases.
Others may vehemently disagree but I'd recommend that you really assess your risk at this point since you can get to a really secure number without being risky. It's one thing to make a calculated risk, it's another to be risky.
Other advice would be that if you are going to be growth oriented at this point, constantly set stop losses as the stock ascends and have a percentage gain in mind when you make a purchase. Also, set an auto sell for when it hits that number and shift those earnings into an ETF with less risk and go play again with the initial investment.
One hard line piece of advice that I will give. You are at a point where there is no guessing anymore. When you buy something know what you're buying, why you are buying it with a defined exit and pay close attention to your accounts. If you aren't going to monitor it daily or weekly have stop losses and sell orders set immediately after you buy. No playing games with speculative stuff.
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 11:22 am
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:21 am to Naked Bootleg
quote:$3.2M for retirement at age 63 sounds about right, but of course it depends on what you'll need for monthly draws.
I have around $950k in savings, almost all of it in a 401k.
$200k is in Fidelity's Contrafund, the other $750k is in Brokeragelink.
By retirement age I will have around $340k in equity of current home.
Of course I want to grow my savings as much as possible. "Retirement calculators" commonly indicate I'd need $3.2mm for retirement but I think they assume I won't be using my money to make money in retirement. I am okay with risk because I need growth.
For some folks $2M ($80-$100K/yr) is plenty to carry on lifestyle. If that's you, getting there from $950K will take an average ROI ~10.5% x 7yrs. Getting to $3.2M would take an ROI >16% x 7yrs. If someone can point you to a 16.2% ROI x 7yrs w/o extreme risk, I'd like to piggyback on the strategy.
You need to sit down and carefully calculate your anticipated monthly needs (inflation included) w/ SS thrown in the mix. Facts are stubborn things. Be careful not to ignore them at this juncture. The challenge is rosey assumptions can lead to unrecoverable mistakes when it comes to retirement.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:27 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
If someone can point you to a 16.2% ROI x 7yrs w/o extreme risk, I'd like to piggyback on the strategy.
QQQ 10 year annualized return is 18.72%
VGT 10 year annualized return is 21.24%
FTEC 10 year annualized return is 21.10%
There are well performing ETFs out there that can hit that number. I wouldn't call any of them extreme risk. There is always that "past performance doesn't guarantee future returns" thing though.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:33 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
What kind of expenses are you expecting monthly when you retire in 7 years?
Somewhere in the $6800 - $7200 range. Could change a bit depending on the decision to retire somewhere else (leaning that way)
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:38 am to Naked Bootleg
quote:
Somewhere in the $6800 - $7200 range. Could change a bit depending on the decision to retire somewhere else (leaning that way)
Once you hit you're retirement number (whatever you determine that to be) you'll need to think if you want to change strategy and get out of a growth mindset and into income mindset with your assets. Or what type of mixed approach you'll be looking for. Basically what does that plan look like and what kind of mix of investments make up that strategy and when do you go about executing that.
You're the only one that can make those calls, but it's a good idea to have your next strategy set well before its time to put it into motion.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:42 am to RolltidePA
quote:
There is always that "past performance doesn't guarantee future returns" thing though.
That pesky damned thing.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:43 am to Naked Bootleg
quote:
I have around $950k in savings, almost all of it in a 401k.
Then you don’t have $950k in savings
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:45 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
I don’t know, but I do know I’d be terrified to retire at 63 with $1.5mm-$2mm, which is what I assume you will have.
You must have outrageous debt
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:51 am to RolltidePA
quote:
RolltidePA
Thanks for the reply. I will look into the ETFs you suggested.
quote:
One hard line piece of advice that I will give. You are at a point where there is no guessing anymore. When you buy something know what you're buying, why you are buying it with a defined exit and pay close attention to your accounts. If you aren't going to monitor it daily or weekly have stop losses and sell orders set immediately after you buy. No playing games with speculative stuff.
I learned that the hard way! Lesson learned.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:07 pm to Naked Bootleg
I do t see why not…
Using the 4% rule, that’s $40k/yr.
Assuming around $2300 soc security
That’s like $5300/mth.
Hoping those expenses would be lower by retirement age…. No way would I retire with $6500/mth debt….
What all bills we talking?
Using the 4% rule, that’s $40k/yr.
Assuming around $2300 soc security
That’s like $5300/mth.
Hoping those expenses would be lower by retirement age…. No way would I retire with $6500/mth debt….
What all bills we talking?
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:10 pm to Naked Bootleg
All of this is interesting but the most important question is how much do you want to spend each month (and total per year) in today's dollars going forward? What big purchases are on your radar over the next twenty years (cars, weddings, special trips)? Spending is the most important factor in this planning.
The retirement math and planning looks a lot different for someone living on $4K a month versus $14K per month.
ETA: Seeing the ~$7K projection now. Break that down and give more details of what all makes that up.
The retirement math and planning looks a lot different for someone living on $4K a month versus $14K per month.
ETA: Seeing the ~$7K projection now. Break that down and give more details of what all makes that up.
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 12:12 pm
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:15 pm to lynxcat
I think you are in a good spot, except for the near $7K / months expected expenses. Thats pretty damn high if you have the majority of your bills paid off.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:22 pm to SportsGuyNOLA
quote:
You must have outrageous debt
No, I’ve just seen friends and family retire with what they thought was plenty of money and then spend the last 5+ years of their life getting sick and then old and dropping an absolute bag on treatments, care, assisted living and having a whole let less in retirement than they thought.
I really, really do not want to be a financial burden to my family when I get to end of life
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:41 pm to xBirdx
quote:
Using the 4% rule, that’s $40k/yr.
This is so outdated.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:51 pm to RolltidePA
quote:There is a reason for the standard disclaimer: "Past performance does not guarantee future results."
QQQ 10 year annualized return is 18.72%
VGT 10 year annualized return is 21.24%
FTEC 10 year annualized return is 21.10%
E.g., QQQ 10-Year Annualized Return March 2000–March 2010 was negative @ –5.3% per year! You're doing well to point out the rosey assumptions I addressed.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:52 pm to VABuckeye
quote:Negative.
This is so outdated.
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