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Retirement goal and how to get there: looking for advice / opinions

Posted on 7/7/25 at 10:42 am
Posted by Naked Bootleg
Premium Plus® Member
Member since Jul 2021
3157 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 10:42 am
I am relatively new to the process of managing my own retirement funds, so please bear with me.

I am 56 and would like to retire by 63.
I have around $950k in savings, almost all of it in a 401k.
$200k is in Fidelity's Contrafund, the other $750k is in Brokeragelink.
By retirement age I will have around $340k in equity of current home.
Projected monthly expenses in the neighborhood of $6800 - $7200

Of course I want to grow my savings as much as possible. "Retirement calculators" commonly indicate I'd need $3.2mm for retirement but I think they assume I won't be using my money to make money in retirement. I am okay with risk because I need growth.

My Brokeragelink account is +4.76% in the year-to-date.. that downturn in Feb - April taught me some hard lessons.. one of which being: have to stay tuned in if I have $$ in risky stocks. I lost bigly before I realized what was happening, and by then it was too late to get out. I like the idea of actively managing my money in retirement, but I don't have much time right now to research companies, trends, etc.

$285k of my Brokeragelink is in FBTC currently +16.8%

Couple ideas I had:
Leave the $200k in Contrafund (+17.56% 5-year avg), put $650k in VOO / SPY / some other index ETF and have the remaining $100k on the side for get in / get out situations
Add $300k to the Contrafund, keep the FBTC and put the remaining $450k in an index ETF

Anyway. I'm not well-versed, but I don't like the idea of hiring a money manager. Any ideas or advice would be greatly appreciated.
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 11:33 am
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
36176 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 10:47 am to
I don’t know, but I do know I’d be terrified to retire at 63 with $1.5mm-$2mm, which is what I assume you will have.

I was thinking about making a thread on this already this morning, but I’m assuming I’m going to spend close to half a mil on elderly care when I get old, and I don’t want to saddle my kids with paying that shite and/or ending up destitute.

Do you really think you can make it for possibly 20-25 years on like a million bucks?
Posted by Naked Bootleg
Premium Plus® Member
Member since Jul 2021
3157 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 10:51 am to
quote:

Do you really think you can make it for possibly 20-25 years on like a million bucks?


I basically have a million now and no, that's not what I am saying. I know there are no absolutes or get rich quick schemes, I just want to grow it as much as possible over the next 7 years.
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 10:53 am
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
71487 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 10:55 am to
What kind of expenses are you expecting monthly when you retire in 7 years?

In 7 years you could almost double that $950k fully invested, but without knowing your expected expenses by 63 hard to really gauge. Also, will you draw SS at 63 as well, will you need it then?
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 10:56 am
Posted by RolltidePA
North Carolina
Member since Dec 2010
4991 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:17 am to
Looking at $950,000 over 7 years, if you're in something with returns like Vanguards VGT or Fidelity's FTEC averaging over 20% over the last 10 years; you'd be sitting at $3.4 million in 7 years without additional contributions. Current year to date number isn't fantastic, but the market is the market.

There's definitely opportunity for you to end up in a good place with some luck. There are a lot of factors regarding expenses and medical care and how you can bridge the gap to Medicare since you're looking at calling it a dat at 63. Two years of health insurance can run up to $60k in some cases.

Others may vehemently disagree but I'd recommend that you really assess your risk at this point since you can get to a really secure number without being risky. It's one thing to make a calculated risk, it's another to be risky.

Other advice would be that if you are going to be growth oriented at this point, constantly set stop losses as the stock ascends and have a percentage gain in mind when you make a purchase. Also, set an auto sell for when it hits that number and shift those earnings into an ETF with less risk and go play again with the initial investment.

One hard line piece of advice that I will give. You are at a point where there is no guessing anymore. When you buy something know what you're buying, why you are buying it with a defined exit and pay close attention to your accounts. If you aren't going to monitor it daily or weekly have stop losses and sell orders set immediately after you buy. No playing games with speculative stuff.



This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 11:22 am
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135282 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:21 am to
quote:

I have around $950k in savings, almost all of it in a 401k.
$200k is in Fidelity's Contrafund, the other $750k is in Brokeragelink.
By retirement age I will have around $340k in equity of current home.

Of course I want to grow my savings as much as possible. "Retirement calculators" commonly indicate I'd need $3.2mm for retirement but I think they assume I won't be using my money to make money in retirement. I am okay with risk because I need growth.
$3.2M for retirement at age 63 sounds about right, but of course it depends on what you'll need for monthly draws.

For some folks $2M ($80-$100K/yr) is plenty to carry on lifestyle. If that's you, getting there from $950K will take an average ROI ~10.5% x 7yrs. Getting to $3.2M would take an ROI >16% x 7yrs. If someone can point you to a 16.2% ROI x 7yrs w/o extreme risk, I'd like to piggyback on the strategy.

You need to sit down and carefully calculate your anticipated monthly needs (inflation included) w/ SS thrown in the mix. Facts are stubborn things. Be careful not to ignore them at this juncture. The challenge is rosey assumptions can lead to unrecoverable mistakes when it comes to retirement.
Posted by RolltidePA
North Carolina
Member since Dec 2010
4991 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:27 am to
quote:

If someone can point you to a 16.2% ROI x 7yrs w/o extreme risk, I'd like to piggyback on the strategy.



QQQ 10 year annualized return is 18.72%
VGT 10 year annualized return is 21.24%
FTEC 10 year annualized return is 21.10%

There are well performing ETFs out there that can hit that number. I wouldn't call any of them extreme risk. There is always that "past performance doesn't guarantee future returns" thing though.
Posted by Naked Bootleg
Premium Plus® Member
Member since Jul 2021
3157 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:33 am to
quote:

What kind of expenses are you expecting monthly when you retire in 7 years?


Somewhere in the $6800 - $7200 range. Could change a bit depending on the decision to retire somewhere else (leaning that way)
Posted by RolltidePA
North Carolina
Member since Dec 2010
4991 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:38 am to
quote:

Somewhere in the $6800 - $7200 range. Could change a bit depending on the decision to retire somewhere else (leaning that way)



Once you hit you're retirement number (whatever you determine that to be) you'll need to think if you want to change strategy and get out of a growth mindset and into income mindset with your assets. Or what type of mixed approach you'll be looking for. Basically what does that plan look like and what kind of mix of investments make up that strategy and when do you go about executing that.

You're the only one that can make those calls, but it's a good idea to have your next strategy set well before its time to put it into motion.
Posted by Artificial Ignorance
Member since Feb 2025
1424 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:42 am to
quote:

There is always that "past performance doesn't guarantee future returns" thing though.


That pesky damned thing.
Posted by SportsGuyNOLA
New Orleans, LA
Member since May 2014
20733 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:43 am to
quote:

I have around $950k in savings, almost all of it in a 401k.


Then you don’t have $950k in savings
Posted by SportsGuyNOLA
New Orleans, LA
Member since May 2014
20733 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:45 am to
quote:

I don’t know, but I do know I’d be terrified to retire at 63 with $1.5mm-$2mm, which is what I assume you will have.


You must have outrageous debt
Posted by Naked Bootleg
Premium Plus® Member
Member since Jul 2021
3157 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 11:51 am to
quote:

RolltidePA


Thanks for the reply. I will look into the ETFs you suggested.

quote:

One hard line piece of advice that I will give. You are at a point where there is no guessing anymore. When you buy something know what you're buying, why you are buying it with a defined exit and pay close attention to your accounts. If you aren't going to monitor it daily or weekly have stop losses and sell orders set immediately after you buy. No playing games with speculative stuff.


I learned that the hard way! Lesson learned.
Posted by xBirdx
Member since Sep 2018
2181 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:07 pm to
I do t see why not…

Using the 4% rule, that’s $40k/yr.
Assuming around $2300 soc security

That’s like $5300/mth.

Hoping those expenses would be lower by retirement age…. No way would I retire with $6500/mth debt….


What all bills we talking?
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24980 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:10 pm to
All of this is interesting but the most important question is how much do you want to spend each month (and total per year) in today's dollars going forward? What big purchases are on your radar over the next twenty years (cars, weddings, special trips)? Spending is the most important factor in this planning.

The retirement math and planning looks a lot different for someone living on $4K a month versus $14K per month.

ETA: Seeing the ~$7K projection now. Break that down and give more details of what all makes that up.
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 12:12 pm
Posted by TIGERSby10
Central Lafourche
Member since Nov 2005
7662 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:15 pm to
I think you are in a good spot, except for the near $7K / months expected expenses. Thats pretty damn high if you have the majority of your bills paid off.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
36176 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

You must have outrageous debt


No, I’ve just seen friends and family retire with what they thought was plenty of money and then spend the last 5+ years of their life getting sick and then old and dropping an absolute bag on treatments, care, assisted living and having a whole let less in retirement than they thought.

I really, really do not want to be a financial burden to my family when I get to end of life
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 12:35 pm
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

Using the 4% rule, that’s $40k/yr.


This is so outdated.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135282 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

QQQ 10 year annualized return is 18.72%
VGT 10 year annualized return is 21.24%
FTEC 10 year annualized return is 21.10%
There is a reason for the standard disclaimer: "Past performance does not guarantee future results."

E.g., QQQ 10-Year Annualized Return March 2000–March 2010 was negative @ –5.3% per year! You're doing well to point out the rosey assumptions I addressed.

Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135282 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

This is so outdated.
Negative.
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