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Started By
Message
10y treasury up to 4.48% overnight
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:16 am
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:16 am
Not ideal across the board. China might be selling but the treasury auction today was weak and rates are flying.
If you think this stock market has a lot further to go China may be offering you a reprieve in bonds…
If you think this stock market has a lot further to go China may be offering you a reprieve in bonds…
5
Posted on 4/9/25 at 4:05 am to slackster
The auctions for today's 10 year bonds and tomorrow's 30 year bonds are going to be very interesting. If they have weak demand, bond prices could get crazy.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 7:13 am to slackster
Welp. There goes my hope of a cheaper mortgage.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 7:16 am to slackster
Our economy is about to get strangled.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 8:04 am to Hateradedrink
And we won’t even get cheaper lending to help offset.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 8:07 am to slackster
In a functioning world, any official that suggested forcing a drop in the 10 year treasury rate over a specific time to refinance our debt would be removed, and jailed if they acted on it.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 8:19 am to Sterling Archer
quote:
Welp. There goes my hope of a cheaper mortgage.
Already seeing this 'narrative' from Agents on social media:
"Tariffs are going to make new construction home costs prohibitive so it is going to drive up the price of existing homes. Please call me to list your home today it is going to be a great time to sell!"
It is beyond ridiculous how desperate these people are.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 9:00 am to slackster
IMHO, the bond market is currently the most important asset class to monitor. It reflects market sentiment more accurately than equities and provides crucial insights into recession risk and Federal Reserve policy shifts. A rapid decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, which represents the market's expectation of future interest rates, serves as a significant indicator.
Diversified bond ETFs like AGG for example often become a core holding during periods of interest rate uncertainty. A place to park your cash while you ride it out. AGG has a current yield of 8.12% for example and has outperformed it's counterparts YTD.
Diversified bond ETFs like AGG for example often become a core holding during periods of interest rate uncertainty. A place to park your cash while you ride it out. AGG has a current yield of 8.12% for example and has outperformed it's counterparts YTD.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 9:20 am to Nole Man
When people start talking about bonds, I know I’m about to lose some serious money.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 9:45 am to BruceJender
quote:
When people start talking about bonds, I know I’m about to lose some serious money.
Now that made me laugh. Kudos to you.Posted on 4/9/25 at 10:08 am to BruceJender
quote:
When people start talking about bonds, I know I’m about to lose some serious money.
Seriously, longer term, fully agree. Historically, stocks have outperformed bonds in terms of returns over extended periods. And dollar-cost averaging in solid index funds like Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFIAX) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) work for long-term goals, such as retirement savings.
But not everyone has the luxury of a long-term horizon, and the point was right now some are looking to park some of their cash in funds that can provide a solid yield with minimal volatility and risk like AGGH. And, while the Fed may consider at least two cuts in 2025, it seems the markets and some analysts expect more substantial reductions, driven by the current trade policy risks and potential economic slowdown. This could benefit the bond market further.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 10:24 am to Nole Man
Does AGGH pay its dividend monthly or quarterly?
Posted on 4/9/25 at 10:30 am to saturncube21
Just buy CLIP
Posted on 4/9/25 at 10:43 am to saturncube21
Posted on 4/9/25 at 10:48 am to BruceJender
quote:
When people start talking about bonds, I know I’m about to lose some serious money.
Watch the high-yield spreads. Values higher than 5 indicate elevated recession risk. We're currently at 4.57, which is a tick down from yesterday's 4.61.
LINK
Posted on 4/9/25 at 11:09 am to ronricks
quote:Yes, selling my home at a premium price, getting me out of this fantastic low 2.7 percent interest rate so I can go buy another home at a premium price at a 6.9 percent rate....sounds like a deal. Oh, and I get to pay you 3%....cant wait.
"Tariffs are going to make new construction home costs prohibitive so it is going to drive up the price of existing homes. Please call me to list your home today it is going to be a great time to sell!"
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:07 pm to tigerfoot
We’re going to be fricked if the 10y sustains above 4.7-4.8% and tariffs increase consumer prices.
Money velocity will plummet and tax revenue will tank.
Money velocity will plummet and tax revenue will tank.
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