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Venture Global IPO January 24th

Posted on 1/18/25 at 5:57 am
Posted by nrtiger
Paradise
Member since Nov 2003
1351 posts
Posted on 1/18/25 at 5:57 am
LINK

Anybody have in thoughts on the Venture Global IPO? Buy or wait and see? Looks like they are trying to raise about $3B.
Posted by Finnish
Member since Nov 2021
771 posts
Posted on 1/18/25 at 6:45 am to
They’re growing like crazy, but also seems they’re making enemies with their strategic and long term customers. They’ve been selling on the spot market instead of filling their contracts.

quote:

Shell and other companies including BP, Galp and Repsol have launched contract arbitration cases in the United States and Europe over the status of the plant and their inability to obtain contract cargoes for more than two years.
Posted by tigerclaw10
My house
Member since Jun 2010
4851 posts
Posted on 1/18/25 at 7:08 am to
They are making so much on the open market they are ok with getting sued for it
Posted by thejudge
Westlake, LA
Member since Sep 2009
15003 posts
Posted on 1/18/25 at 11:38 am to
I'd love to jump in.

I also held LNGLF/Y and TELL.

I was up huge and hung on and didn't get out and lucky to come away with about 8k in profit... after being up collectively about 80k...

Feel like LNG is cursed. I will watch how ever and see what the market decides the price should be and make a decision then.
Posted by thejudge
Westlake, LA
Member since Sep 2009
15003 posts
Posted on 1/23/25 at 1:46 pm to
Bump for IPO tomorrow.

Seems they reduced their initial want down to 23-27 a share.

Worth watching a they could be come the biggest IPO in years on the heals of Trump pumping LNG.
Posted by rowbear1922
Houston, TX
Member since Oct 2008
15751 posts
Posted on 1/23/25 at 4:40 pm to
As someone currently working on a VG project, I’m going to jump in at the open if it’s really between $24-27 but I suspect all those shares will be gobbled up and opens at twice the price
Posted by Naked Bootleg
Premium Plus® Member
Member since Jul 2021
3122 posts
Posted on 1/24/25 at 6:18 am to
Anybody have in thoughts on the Venture Global IPO? Buy or wait and see? Looks like they are trying to raise about $3B.

I will be watching. They sold 70 million shares to raise $1.75 billion on Thursday, selling the stock at $25 compared to its offer price of $23 to $27.

I have had mixed/mostly negligible results jumping on IPOs, but something tells me this one might be different.
Posted by Motownsix
Boise
Member since Oct 2022
3088 posts
Posted on 1/24/25 at 9:56 am to
quote:

Worth watching a they could be come the biggest IPO in years on the heals of Trump pumping LNG.


From what I’ve heard and read Trump wants to increase oil and nat gas supplies in order to make both more affordable. That doesn’t sound good for investors. Anyone who was invested in this sector back in 2015-2019 remembers how painful it was then. I for one will be staying far away from this sector for the next few years.
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
10993 posts
Posted on 1/24/25 at 12:21 pm to
Got in at 24.06 with a couple hundred bucks just to see what happens.
Posted by CajunTiger78
Member since Aug 2017
2879 posts
Posted on 1/24/25 at 1:00 pm to
Will watch this one
Posted by lsuconnman
Baton rouge
Member since Feb 2007
4406 posts
Posted on 1/24/25 at 4:07 pm to
What’s the anticipated upside over Cheniere? It IPO’d higher than LNG’s value…which is up 40% in the past 12 months/200% in the last four years.

Unless there’s some significant dividend, it seems like that IPO was just timed to extract max equity at a market peak.
Posted by meeple
Carcassonne
Member since May 2011
10768 posts
Posted on 1/24/25 at 4:18 pm to
Why not, in for 5 @23.97
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
10993 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 2:47 pm to
Ouch, Lol. Oh well.
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
15655 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:15 pm to
They priced it for a perfect environment and they don’t have that.

The prospectus mentions that they have some contractual obligations to sell product well below the current market prices. That has and will continue to hurt their revenue.

Eventually that won’t matter but they are not a $50billion company under those conditions.

It’s a good play in the natural gas space if you’re in for the long term tho
Posted by VMO7
Member since Mar 2018
38 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 9:12 pm to
For those who are in the industry - what is the argument for buying Venture vs. Cheniere?
Posted by tigerclaw10
My house
Member since Jun 2010
4851 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 9:49 pm to
After they get CP2 up they will be making much more LNG than Cheniere. I think they already make quite a bit more.

Also, with them continuing to sell on the open market they are making tons of money right now.
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
11320 posts
Posted on 1/28/25 at 4:51 am to
quote:

Feel like LNG is cursed. I will watch how ever and see what the market decides the price should be and make a decision then.


LNG has its advantages and disadvantages. On a large scale it is expensive to start up and maintain the economies of scale to make it profitable.

It is also politically dependent. A normalization of relations again between Russia and Europe pretty much could wipe out the need for any future investment into LNG transport as pipeline deliveries of natural gas could return to normal or be expanded.


Then you also have contracts and future prices baked in to the agreement that do not take into account future fluctuations in a commodity that goes up and down like a heart monitor. By converting gas into a liquid, it allows natural gas to be stored in a more confined and transportable product, getting it down to temperature on such a large scale takes a lot of electricity cool and inversely will take seawater or electricity to warm it back into a usable source of fuel. That is why it costs so much and why you need so much of it to still keep it profitable.
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