Baylor really the favorites in the bowl game?

They finished out the year strong. I'm not overly surprised.

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they are fielding their team, we have people like Lacy who are sitting out

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Aren't something like 21 of their 22 starters playing and we will be missing most of our OL and our top receivers?

How can they not be? For all the momentum the recruiting and transfers have generated, this team currently, is bad. Couple that with the opt outs, and yeah, they should clearly be the favorites. Paid more to play less, must be nice.

Probably means more to them.

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Oh no, we are missing Sage Ryan and Kyren Lacy

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And your first round tackles.

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And your first round tackles.

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This is Baylor, bro. I don’t believe anyone they played this year had 1st round tackles and other than mighty Tarlenton St and Air Force, their D got lit up like a St James parish bonfire.

Bowl games are a crap shoot and don’t matter a lick. Just enjoy them for what they are and don’t get worked up over them.

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For the 100 millionth time the spread isn’t based on who Vegas THINKS will win. It’s where they think the money will come in 50/50 so they break even and pocket the juice.

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That’s not exactly how it works either, but you are mostly correct. I worked for Circa and am intimately familiar with how oddsmakers operate. I’ve seen games where 70% of the wagers are on one team and only 30% of the actual money wagered is coming in on that team. Meaning 30% are backing up a dump truck on one game thus a pros versus Joe’s occurs. Oddsmakers expose themselves to liability on numerous games a day. Today it was the Miami Iowa State over. They couldn’t raise the total high enough and the pros and Joe’s ripped them a new arse. Oddsmakers will throw a line out begging you to take a position on a game that is nowhere near 50% 50% on the money or tickets wagered. To reduce liability they prefer to get the money wagered at 50-50, but if they think a team, especially an ugly dog, is going to win or outright cover, they will put a line out that makes absolutely no sense and beg you to take it. Oddsmakers moved Seattle to -3.5 Thursday night and the Bears lost by 3. Oddsmakers cleaned up because 90% of the tickets and money were on the Seahawks. Oddsmakers gamble on these games with shady lines and routinely get their asses kicked, but they win way more than they lose. If a line looks funny it’s usually money. I’m with you I’d take LSU +3.5 or +4. Don’t care how many people are sitting out. I’d take and put LSU on a teaser too at +9.5. I’d sprinkle a little on LSU ML too.

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I worked for Circa a

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If this is true....you also know that they make insurance bets as well. I love it when people like this guy think they know how it all works...when they don't at all. I am very familiar with how it works behind the scenes......as I managed a smaller casino book and spent a lot of time in Vegas training.